Fantasy Football 2013: Tight Ends

Overview

In the real game, the biggest responsibility for a tight end is to help his offensive line block. However, there are no fantasy points for pancakes. Nevertheless, tight ends are a great safety net for quarterbacks in the passing game as they can check down to their TEs if the receivers are covered down the field. For fantasy, explosive tight ends that can produce like a wide receiver are gold. In their prime, Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates gave their fantasy owners a significant advantage. Gonzalez is still going strong while Gates’ production has succumbed to injury. Recently, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham have taken the helm from those tight ends. As such, there have been usually two tight ends that are above the rest of the field. As for the rest of the field, their fantasy value tends to depend on touchdowns which are very difficult to predict. As good as a tight end may be, his fantasy value can also be hurt by a bad offensive line as he will have to stay back and help to block instead of running routes and making catches. The best example is Tony Gonzalez’s 2002 season when he was in his prime. His line was terrible and he had to help block. As such, he only had 63 receptions, 774 yards, and 7 touchdowns that season. The numbers are not bad but definitely are not what you are looking for in a high draft pick. I learned the lesson the hard way when I drafted him in the 3^rd round that year. As such, tight ends generally do not provide enough predictable point differential from their peer group during the fantasy season to justify their average draft position. Consequently, it makes sense to just pick a tight end in the later rounds of the draft if you cannot get one of the freak athletes who can produce like a wide receiver. For me, this season’s tight end draft scenario is easy. If Jimmy Graham is available at the end of the 1^st round or the 2^nd round and I do not take him, I plan on waiting till the last round to pick a tight end I like from whoever is left in the pool.

Tier 1

Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints)

Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)

Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys)

Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots)

 

Jimmy Graham is the clear cut top tight end this year. Moreover, the return of Sean Payton as the Saints’ head coach should help an already top offense and give an additional boost to Graham’s stats. Tony Gonzalez had another top fantasy season last year and still has plenty in the tank. However, he is on a deep team. His targets and receptions could decrease dramatically from last year with the continued development of Julio Jones and the addition of Steven Jackson, who is a lot better receiver out of the backfield than the previous running back Michael Turner. Jason Witten had another great season with 110 receptions and is a perfect example of a safety net for a QB as he caught a lot of short passes. He is also an example of fantasy production being limited by touchdowns as he had only 3 last year and did not have as great of a fantasy season as 110 receptions may indicate. With Dez Bryant on the team, I do not anticipate his targets in the endzone to increase significantly this year. His 110 receptions are very high and likely to decrease as well. Rob Gronkowski has been as big of a beast in the last 2 seasons as there has ever been at tight end. However, he has suffered significant injuries during the last couple of seasons. In addition, he will miss at least the first 6 weeks of the season. While he can put up production that can give you an edge in the fantasy playoffs, the significant injuries concern me. I would not even consider him until the 5^th or 6^th round but I imagine a manager will bite earlier.

 

If Gonzalez and Witten are still available in the 8^th round, I could take one them if there are no wide receivers or running backs I am high on left. However, it is most likely that I will punt the tight end position altogether if I do not draft Jimmy Graham high.

 

Tier 2

 

Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)

Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)

Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers)

Brandon Myers (New York Giants)

Owen Daniels (Houston Texans)

Jared Cook (St. Louis Rams)

Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings)

Jermichael Finley (Green Bay Packers)

 

Vernon Davis has game breaking talent. He has the most upside of this group. However, he has been tremendously disappointing fantasy wise the last two seasons. The injury to Michael Crabtree may help Davis’s production as the 49ers will try to get Davis more targets as evidenced by them experimenting with lining him up at wide receiver in training camp.  Gates is an intriguing option. He is not who he use to be and injuries have been a problem recently. Nevertheless, Philip Rivers does not have too many options outside of Gates. Jermichael Finley has been more hype than production. He has been very average fantasy wise in his career. I do not foresee a quantum leap with the deep receiver core the Packers have. Besides the upside of Vernon Davis, none of these tight ends are inspiring me much.

 

Tier 3

 

Zach Miller (Seattle Seahawks)

Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions)

Martellus Bennett (Chicago Bears)

Dustin Keller (New York Jets)

Fred Davis (Washington Redskins)

Rob Housler (Arizona Cardinals)

Coby Fleener (Indianapolis Colts)

Jordan Cameron (Cleveland Browns)

 

Dusitn Keller is a receiving tight end I liked with the Jets. If he can stay healthy, he can be a big weapon for second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Fred Davis is another talented tight end that has trouble staying on the field. If he can stay healthy, he could have a very good year with RGIII at the helm. Housler might have the biggest upside and is getting a lot of hype from the Cardinals. Fleener has upside and was great with Andrew Luck in Stanford. While his rookie season was modest, there is a chance Fleener and Luck can start duplicating their great success in college. The difference between Tier 2 and Tier 3 is that the tight ends in Tier 3 are either injury risks or inexperienced and unproven.

 

Tier 4

 

Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals)

Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis Colts)

Scott Chandler (Buffalo Bills)

Anthony Fasano (Kansas City Chiefs)

Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles)

Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles)

Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Dallas Clark (Baltimore Ravens)

David Ausberry (Oakland Raiders)

Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati Bengals)

Jeff Cumberland (New York Jets)

 

These tight ends are more names to consider but are waiver wire type players. Dwayne Allen is another talented, young tight end with the Colts. Celek has been a good tight end in the past but there are rumblings that rookie Zach Ertz is overtaking him as the top tight end with the Eagles. Heath Miller is solid but he may miss the beginning of the season due to injury and he is not a player that is good enough fantasy wise to stash. Julius Thomas is making a push to be the starting tight end for the Broncos but Manning has too many options at wide receiver to throw to Thomas instead.

Comments