(4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ (2)New England Patriots (12-4)
(4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Wild Card Round
Down 38-10 at the beginning of the third quarter, the Colts looked dead. However, budding superstar QB Andrew Luck played great in the second half and led his Colts to the second greatest playoff comeback in NFL history against the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the most exciting game of the Wild Card weekend. The win is a great moment for the franchise as it signals to the league that Luck will be the next great quarterback and a force to be reckoned with for the next decade. On the other hand, they turned the ball over 4 times during the game, including 3 interceptions from Luck, after only turning the ball over 14 times in the regular season. They will need to do much better to have a chance in the next round.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 24.4 (14th) Pass Yards: 232.8 (17th) Rush Yards: 108.9 (21st)
Andrew Luck led the comeback against the Chiefs. T.Y. Hilton was his partner in crime catching 13 balls for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns. After the loss of Wayne, Hilton stepped up as Luck’s go to receiver and is a great deep threat. Hilton proved he is an impact receiver in the NFL. However, he is not Calvin Johnson and teams will focus on him the rest of the playoffs. As such, other receivers will have to step up. Tight end Coby Fleener had the second most receptions in the regular season on the Colts. He caught some key passes including a touchdown in the comeback. However, he also dropped some key passes that hit him right in the hands. Luck and Fleener was a special connection in college at Stamford. They will need to bring back that connection in the NFL Playoffs if the Colts are going to make a deep run. On the other hand, the trade to net Trent Richardson for a first round pick is a disaster. He was lousy in the regular season and fumbled on his only carry in the Wild Card game. Donald Brown has shown he is their best running back. He had a good game with 55 rushing yards on 11 carries as well as 47 yards on 4 receptions with a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown. The Colts need Brown to stay effective and a second effective receiver to step forward.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 21.0 (9th) Pass Yards: 231.9 (13th) Rush Yards: 125.1 (26th)
The Colts gave up 44 points last week against a Chiefs team without Jamaal Charles. As a result, it is alarming. Obviously, they will need to do much better. They did play much better in the second half even if it was against a depleted Chiefs offense after key injuries during the game. Nevertheless, their best defender, Robert Mathis, had a great game by pressuring the quarterback which included a key forced fumble against Alex Smith that sparked the comeback. He continued his stellar play after 19.5 sacks in the regular season. They rely heavily on Mathis for pass rush so he will need to play big again.
Special Teams:
Adam Vinatieri had another great year hitting 35/40 field goals, including 15/17 from 40-49 yards and 4/6 from 50+ yards. They did not need him much last week. Of course, he is also the most clutch, big game kicker in the history of the NFL. He has also done it in inclement weather. He may come into play in New England.
(2) New England Patriots (12-4)
Overview
The Patriots are an average team with an All-Time Great quarterback with Tom Brady. The Patriots defense had already regressed to mediocrity over the years. With the loss of star receiver Wes Welker to free agency, tight end Aaron Hernandez to murder charges, and superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski to injury, the Patriots really have a mediocre receiving core. Although Tom Brady was clearly frustrated this year, he was able to carry his offense to the third highest scoring in the NFL and his team to a 12-4 record. It included a couple of late game miracle finishes. The improbable wins against the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns at home against certain defeat late in the games as well as the overtime win against the Denver Broncos at home after being down 24-0 in the game come to mind when I think about the Patriots season. Even though Brady had modest numbers with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, I am more impressed with him this season than his record breaking 2007 season since he was able to lift the play of average players around him. The Patriots also finished the season with an 8-0 record at home.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 27.8 (3rd) Pass Yards: 255.4 (10th) Rush Yards: 129.1 (9th)
Tom Brady was upset when the Patriots allowed Wes Welker to leave and he was correct. They tried to sign Danny Amendola to replace him. As no shock to anyone, he battled injury all season and had a subpar year. He may be younger and more talented but he is not durable and not even close to the production of Welker. With the loss of Rob Gronkowski to injury again during the season, the Patriots lost their one gamebreaking pass catcher. Julian Edelman led the team with 105 receptions and 1,056 yards. However, he is a nice complimentary receiver and definitely not a go to receiver. The Patriots have a running back by committee that has been effective. Stevan Ridley, LeGarettte Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen have combined for excellent production with over 2,000 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. In this group, Vereen has the best big play potential catching passes out of the backfield. He caught 12 balls for 153 yards against the Browns. Perhaps, the biggest issue with this offense is pass protection. Brady did not get touched in the past. This season’s Patriots allowed him to get sacked 40 times.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 21.0 (9th) Pass Yards: 231.9 (13th) Rush Yards: 125.1 (26th)
While Bill Belichick’s name inflated the value of the Patriot defense for a few years, it is clear that it does not have the players it used to have and is now average. It does not help that they also lost linebacker Brandon Spikes for the season. They do have two defensive lineman that can pressure the quarterback as Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones combined for 8 and 11.5 sacks respectively. They also generated turnovers with 29 takeaways, 4th best in the AFC. While their overall defensive numbers do not look terrible, they also played in a division with 2 rookie quarterbacks and Ryan Tannehill. As a result, a portion of the stats are padded.
Special Teams:
Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the league. He hit 38/41 field goals. Moreover, he was perfect within 40 yards, 11/13 from 40+ yards, and 5/6 from 50+ yards. While he may not have as many high profile, pressure kicks yet on his resume like Vinaetieri, he is a tremendous weapon to have in a close game and the Patriots should trust him as much as they did with Vinaetieri.
The Matchup:
The teams did not play against each other this season. However, they played last season and the Patriots won big 59-24. I would not infer too much from that result. They are not the same teams and it was a long time ago. The Patriots preyed on Luck as a rookie QB. Luck has a year of experience under his belt and so does his young team. On other hand, the Patriots have regressed as a team this season despite the 12-4 record. The keys to the game are:
1) Whether the Colts start the game with their momentum at the end of the last game or the euphoria celebrating after it. They are still young and inexperienced. If they are not ready to play at the start of the game similar to last week, they will find trying to come back from a big deficit against Brady and Belichick to be even more improbable than the 0.9% projected chance of winning they had at a certain point during the Wild Card Game.
2) Patriots running game. They will need to rush the ball very well. They have an inexperienced receiving core. They dropped a lot of passes at the beginning of the season. As such, I can see them not ready for the big lights of the playoffs. I do not think the Patriots can rely on them to have big games. Edelman will catch his short passes but nothing else is assured. As a result, they need to lean on the running game. They also need it to keep the Colts pass rushers off Brady.
3) Robert Mathis. He is a disruptive force on defense and a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. With a suspect Patriot line, he can be significant factor.
4) Patriots pass rush. The Colts have also had pass protection issues. As such, the Patriots may take advantage to pressure Luck and keep him off balance. If they let him sit comfortably in the pocket, he will tear them apart.
5) Colt receivers other than T.Y. Hilton. Belichick will gameplan for Hilton. While I still think he makes a few key plays, he will surely not bust out again for over 200 yards receiving. As a result, the Colts will need at least one or two other receivers to have a good game.
Prediction:
Brady and Belichick have done a lot with the team they have. Moreover, they are 8-0 at home this season and more than a touchdown favorite. Nevertheless, I do not like their receiving core, their offensive line, or their defense. I think their offense will struggle. Moreover, Andrew Luck usually protects the ball. Last week’s turnovers are an aberration. I expect Luck to play mistake free football and make enough big plays on offense to win the game for the Colts. Obviously, you can never count the Patriots out. Even if they are down two scores with 5 minutes left, it would not shock me if they have another miracle finish left in them this season. Nevertheless, Brady can pull them out of the fire only so many times before the better teams in the playoffs pick them off.
Colts Win.
(6) San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
(6) San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Overview
The Chargers needed a miracle to get into the playoffs in the last two weeks of the regular season. All those things happened and they got into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league. While the Chargers played mistake free against the Cincinnati Bengals, Andy Dalton and the Bengals handed the Chargers the game with 4 turnovers. The Chargers handed the Bengals their first home loss of the season. The Chargers are a dangerous team that can beat any team in the league.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 24.8 (12th) Pass Yards: 270.5 (4th) Rush Yards: 122.8 (13th)
The Chargers did not even need their star quarterback to do much as Philip Rivers had a modest game throwing for 128 yards and one touchdown in the Wild Card round. Similarly, they also did not need much from Keenan Allen who has stepped up as the top receiver on the team at the end of the season. Old reliable, tight end Antonio Gates, only had 1 reception. On the other hand, running backs Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead had good games combining for over 100 yards rushing. In addition, Ronnie Brown added a surprising 77 yards on 8 carries. I expect Rivers, Allen, and the running game to have a huge impact in the next game.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 21.8 (11th) Pass Yards: 258.7 (29th) Rush Yards: 107.8 (12th)
The Chargers did not get a lot of sacks or force a lot of turnovers in the regular season. However, the Charger defense got pressure on Andy Dalton. They sacked him 3 times and forced 3 turnovers off him. Their defensive coordinator John Pagano has down a tremendous job with his schemes
Special Teams:
Nick Novak has been very strong this season hitting 34/37 field goals. He has also hit all 13 of his attempts greater than 40 yards, including both his 50 yard attempts. He was not needed against the Bengals but is an asset in a close game.
Denver Broncos (13-3)
Overview
It is all about Peyton Manning this season. It is unbelievable that he was able to break the touchdown (55) and passing yardage (5,477) records at this stage of his career and in 15 ½ games (as he did not play in the second half of the game against the Oakland Raiders in week 17). However, he needs to win the Superbowl this year to cement his legacy and make his case for the greatest quarterback of All-Time. Without a doubt, he is the greatest regular season quarterback of All-Time. However, his 9-11 postseason record and inability to produce at his regular season levels is the knock against him. Nevertheless, he has won a Superbowl and been to a second one. A second championship will go a long way to counter the argument against his postseason failures.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 37.9 (1st) Pass Yards: 340.3 (1st) Rush Yards: 117.1 (15th)
With Peyton Manning’s individual record breaking season, the offense also broke the record for most points scored in a season (606). With the addition of Wes Welker to go with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, the Broncos have a great trio at receiver. Thomas is their homerun hitter with 92 receptions, 1,430 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Julius Thomas broke out as a top tight end. Of course, playing with Peyton Manning ups your game. The best example on the team of this effect is running back Knowshon Moreno. He was a bust in his career until the arrival of Manning. Moreno has stepped up his game with 1,038 rushing yards and 10 TDs as well as 60 receptions for 548 yards. In addition, the Broncos know who the franchise is. They have been the best in the NFL at protecting their quarterback as Manning has only been sacked 20 times.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 24.9 (22nd) Pass Yards: 254.4 (27th) Rush Yards: 101.6 (8th)
The Broncos have a bad defense. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller generated a lot of pass rush last year. Dumvervil left via free agency after a faxing mistake by the Bronco front office made him a free agent. Miller was given a drug suspension at the beginning of the season, did not play well when he came back, and then suffered a serious injury to end his season. Champ Bailey was a top corner in his career but is now an aging veteran that has had no impact this season. They did generate a good amount of turnovers with 26. However, they generated very little pass rush as they were last in the NFL with 20 sacks. I believe their defense will get them eliminated in the playoffs.
Special Teams:
Matt Prater is a great weapon. He hit 25 of 26 field goals. His only miss was from 50+ yards and he broke the NFL record making a 64 yarder this season.
The Matchup:
As division rivals, the teams met twice in the regular season. The road team won both games. The Broncos won 28-20 in the first game and the Chargers won 27-20 in the second game. However, the Chargers dominated both games in terms of time of possession. They controlled the ball over 38 minutes in both games. In the first game, Peyton Manning was nearly perfect with 4 touchdowns and made great use of the time he did have the ball. In the second game, Manning only had 2 touchdowns and threw an interception in the loss. Manning has historically had trouble with the Chargers. The playoff loss against the Chargers after the Colts won the Superbowl the previous season comes to mind. Even though Philip Rivers was injured during the game, his backup Billy Volek came in to win the game. However, I do not put too much weight as the Chargers roster has almost completely turned over and they also have a completely different coaching staff. The keys to the game are as follows:
1) Chargers time of possession. The best defense against Peyton Manning is offense. If your offense is on the field, Manning is not. Accordingly, the time of possession the Chargers had against the Broncos in the regular season is important. They have an offense that can keep the ball and kill the clock. As the regular season results showed, Manning had to be near perfect to win a close game and lost the game in an uphill battle trying to catch up in the loss with limited time of possession in both games.
2) Broncos defense. They do not have the defense or playmakers to stop the Chargers. San Diego will control the clock and move the ball. The Broncos defense needs to hold the Chargers to as many field goals as possible to give Manning a chance.
3) Rust of the Broncos offense. As Peyton Manning’s past history has shown, his offense usually struggles to get going when his team has a playoff bye. For whatever reason, they were out of sync at the beginning of those games. In the season his Colts won the Superbowl, they played duringWild Card weekend. It will be costly against the Chargers if the Broncos offense does not come out of the gate firing on all cylinders.
Prediction:
I do not think the Broncos defense can prevent a repeat of the two regular season games. As such, the Chargers offense will control the game again with their running game. The Broncos will also not get any pressure on Rivers so he will make some big plays. Watch out for some of those plays to go to receiver Keenan Allen. However, Rivers spreads the ball around and any Charger receiver can be a hero. I think the Broncos as 9 point favorites is crazy. If you forced me to be truthful, I would pick the Chargers for the upset. I am a big Peyton Manning fan. I really want to see him win another Superbowl and will be rooting for him hard. Based on my gut feeling and the hope that my pick will jinx what I think will happen, I am going to pick the Chargers.
Chargers win.
About Pat Wong
Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.
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