(5) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ (4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Overview
It was a resurgent year for the Chiefs who were a league worst 2-14 in 2012. Moreover, their new head coach Andy Reid had a comeback season after a long tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles ended with a couple of subpar seasons. Reid certainly did not forget how to coach. His immediate success in Kansas City and the Philadelphia Eagles quick turnaround winning the NFC East this season shows that someone can be at one place for too long and it is better for both sides to make a change. Nevertheless, games are ultimately won by players and the former regime left the team with talented playmakers in all sides of the ball. Armed with the first pick of the draft and trading for a quality quarterback in Alex Smith, the Chiefs were ready to return to relevance in 2013.
The Chiefs stormed out to a 9-0 start to begin the season. However, they lost the next three games to division rivals, twice to the Denver Broncos and once to the San Diego Chargers. While they lost their last two games of the season to finish the season 2-5, they also did not have much to play for in the last two games. However, they proved their depth is excellent as they should have beaten San Diego who needed the game in Week 17. The Chiefs would have won if it were not for a missed game winning field goal attempt and a missed penalty that would have given them another shot at it and at 5 yards closer. Nevertheless, it is not a good indicator for the playoffs that they were 1-5 against other playoff teams. That one win was against the Philadelphia Eagles earlier in the season before Nick Foles became the starting quarterback and the Eagles started their dominant run finishing the season 7-1. On the bright side, the Chiefs have already had a very successful season that they can build on no matter what happens in the playoffs.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 26.9 (6th) Pass Yards: 208.8 (24th) Rush Yards: 128.5 (10th)
Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers because Alex Smith has his limitations throwing the deep ball. Nevertheless, Smith has developed into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL who takes care of the ball. The difference in having Smith and a mediocre quarterback is the 2 win 2012 Chiefs and the 11 win 2013 Chiefs. While he is mainly known as a game manager, he can make plays with both his legs and arm. Of course, Jamaal Charles is still the anchor of the offense as one of the most dominant running backs in the NFL. He had another stellar season rushing for 1,287 yards at 5 yards per carry with 12 TDs. He also showed his dual threat ability adding 70 receptions for 693 yards and 7 TDs. Dwayne Bowe is their best pure receiver but he is not as good as his stats in previous seasons suggest. Besides Charles, the other explosive player on the Chiefs is Dexter McCluster who can be a wild card in the receiving and return sides of the game. Naturally, Andy Reid’s prowess on offense helped to maximize the talent on the Chiefs into one of the better offenses.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 19.1 (5th) Pass Yards: 247.6 (25th) Rush Yards: 120.2 (22nd)
The Chiefs have a physical and deep defense with 5 players selected for the Pro Bowl. Both linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali pressure the quarterback and totaled 11 sacks each for the season. Brandon Flowers is one of the better cornerbacks and Eric Berry is one of the most disruptive safeties in the NFL. Nowadays, the rules are set in favor of the offenses. Accordingly, forcing turnovers is now the most important metric for defenses. In this area, the Chiefs are the best in the AFC forcing 36 turnovers during the regular season.
Special Teams:
Ryan Succop is a decent kicker hitting on 22/28 attempts during the season. 3 of his misses were from over 50 yards. He was 6/8 from over 40 yards but one of those misses came in Week 17 when his 41 yard attempt to win the game went wide right. While he is not an automatic, I do not think he kills the Chiefs either. On the other hand, Dexter McCluster is a game breaker as a punt returner. He returned two punts for touchdowns this season and can definitely make some game changing plays.
(4) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Overview
It was a very successful second year for young superstar QB Andrew Luck, who has now made the playoffs in the first two seasons of his career. With the Houston Texans self destructing, the Colts did not have any competition for the division. They are a young team that still needs a lot of pieces on both sides of the ball to be championship contenders. They were also inconsistent during the year which drew the ire of their owner. However, the struggles can be attributed to their youth. The loss of veteran receiver, Reggie Wayne, definitely hurt them. In addition, they made a foolish trade giving up a 1st round pick for running back Trent Richardson who is not even their primary back. Nevertheless, they have a great quarterback in Andrew Luck that makes up for a lot of their flaws. They have also raised their game against the top teams in the NFL with signature wins over the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos in Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 24.4 (14th) Pass Yards: 232.8 (17th) Rush Yards: 108.9 (21st)
The offense is all about Andrew Luck who had an excellent year throwing for 3,822 yards, 23 TDs, and protecting the ball only throwing 9 interceptions. While the stats may appear modest, he did it with poor pass protection from his line, no running game, and limited weapons after Reggie Wayne was lost. Young receiver T.Y. Hilton distinguished himself in his second year with 82 receptions, 1,083 yards, and 5 TDs. Luck and his college teammate, tight end Coby Fleener, have not had the same success in the NFL. However, Fleener had the second most receptions on the team at 52 and Luck will need him in the playoffs. Going forward, the Colts definitely need to build a great offensive line to protect their prized asset in Luck as well as give him top weapons so he can realize his potential as the next Peyton Manning.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 21.0 (9th) Pass Yards: 231.9 (13th) Rush Yards: 125.1 (26th)
Their defense is led by their one Pro-Bowler, defensive end Robert Mathis. He had a monster year providing pass rush for the Colts with 19.5 sacks. He is definitely the one guy on the Colts that other teams have to gameplan for as he accounts for almost 2/3 of their 32 sacks. Laron Landry was also an excellent free agent pickup as he and Antoine Bethea form one of the better safety combos in the league. Jerrell Freeman is also a very productive linebacker with 126 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and 2 interceptions. While they may depend on Mathis too much for their pass rush, they do force a good amount of turnovers as they were fifth in the AFC with 27. On the other hand, their rush defense struggled during the season. In the Week 16 win against the Chiefs, Jamaal Charles racked up 106 yards in only 13 carries.
Special Teams:
Adam Vinatieri had another great year hitting 35/40 field goals, including 15/17 from 40-49 yards and 4/6 from 50+ yards. Of course, he is also the most clutch, big game kicker in the history of the NFL. Accordingly, he is a major weapon in a close playoff game.
The Matchup:
The Indianapolis Colts went into Arrowhead in Kansas City and beat the Chiefs 23-7 in Week 16. While you need to give credit to the Colts for the impressive win, both teams clinched playoff spots and were only playing for seeding. Given that both coaches could assume that they would not get 1st round Byes and anticipate a rematch in this round of the playoffs, I would not presume they showed the other team everything in that game. In addition, quarterback Alex Smith had his sloppiest game of the season with 3 turnovers (1 Int and 2 lost fumbles). The Chiefs had 4 total turnovers in the game. It is uncharacteristic for them this season as they have a +18 turnover differential overall, which is the best in the AFC. The Colts were +13, which is the second best in the Conference. Nevertheless, I believe that Alex Smith will take care of the ball much better in this rematch.
They keys for the game are as follows:
1) Chiefs pass rush on Andrew Luck and conversely the Colts pass protection as they have had a difficult time keeping Luck upright this season.
2) Chiefs getting the ball to Jamaal Charles as much as possible whether it is carries or catches out of the backfield.
3) Colts pass rush as their 5 sacks and pressure on Alex Smith in Week 16 definitely helped cause the turnovers.
4) Dexter McCluster as he can break open any game.
Prediction:
I definitely think the Chiefs have the better overall team. However, the Colts have the best player on the field at the most important position with Andrew Luck at quarterback. Moreover, they are at home where they are 6-2 on the season. Unless Jamaal Charles has a monster game and Dexter McCluster breaks it open with a game changing play, I expect the game to be close. In that situation, I give the advantage to the home team that has Andrew Luck at QB and Adam Vinatieri at kicker.
Indianapolis Colts win
(6) San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ (3) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
(6) San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Overview
Charger fans were ready to turn on QB Philip Rivers at the end of last season. However, he regained their trust as he had a great season throwing for 4,478 yards, 32 TDs, and 11 Ints. He was even better than his overall stats in the last four games throwing for 9 TDs against only 2 Ints in the last 4 games. The Chargers won all 4 games to propel themselves into the playoffs. Moreover, they won 5 of their last 6 games which included 2 wins over their divisional rival Chiefs. However, they were aided by a missed call that could have penalized them 5 yards on the Chiefs’ missed field goal attempt to win the game in Week 17. Nevertheless, the Chargers earned their way into the playoffs. While they are 9-7, all of their losses have been close and they were within a touchdown in most of them. Accordingly, the Chargers are a dangerous team with a top quarterback that can beat anyone.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 24.8 (12th) Pass Yards: 270.5 (4th) Rush Yards: 122.8 (13th)
Philip Rivers is definitely the general that leads his offense but he did get some help this year. Talented but often injured running back Ryan Matthews was able to stay on the field this year and made a strong contribution with 1,255 rushing yards and 6 TDs. Moreover, Danny Woodhead continues to be a versatile player as a running back. While he was effective in his split of the carries, he is also excellent as a receiver adding 76 catches. He definitely helps fill the void that was left by Darren Sproles when he signed with the New Orleans Saints. Moreover, Keenan Allen stepped up as Rivers’s go to receiver as the season progressed and Antonio Gates had a solid season with the most receptions on the team as the tight end. Another key to the success of the offense this season is the significant improvement in pass protection. They only allowed Rivers to be sacked for 30 times, which is a major improvement from the 49 sacks the previous year.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 21.8 (11th) Pass Yards: 258.7 (29th) Rush Yards: 107.8 (12th)
The Chargers have very strong safety play with Eric Weddle and Marcus Gilchrist. They have good but not great players on defense. They do not force a lot of pressure nor do they force a lot of turnovers. It is usually a recipe for disaster in the current state of the NFL. Nevertheless, their defensive coordinator John Pagano has down a tremendous job with his schemes as they only give up 21.8 points per game. Similar to the Kansas City Chiefs, you have to consider that number is slightly inflated as they faced Peyton Manning and the highest scoring offense in history twice this season.
Special Teams:
Nick Novak has been very strong this season hitting 34/37 field goals. He has also hit all 13 of his attempts greater than 40 yards, including both his 50 yard attempts. He will be a great asset to have in a close game.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
Overview
The Bengals finished 8-0 at home but were only 3-5 on the road. Their results have a direct correlation to the play of their very talented but mistake prone quarterback Andy Dalton. At home, he threw for 20 TDs against 9 Ints. On the road, those numbers regressed to 13 TDs compared to 11 Ints. In the Bengals wins, he threw for 27 TDs against 11 Ints. In their losses, he had a poor ratio of 6 TDs against 9 Ints. The Bengals have a lot of talent on all sides of the ball. In my opinion, they have the best overall talent in the AFC from that perspective. They have a top receiver on offense with AJ Green and one of the most physical, toughest defenses in the NFL. However, they will only go as far as Andy Dalton will carry them. It is the third consecutive year the Bengals have made the playoffs. They lost to the Houston Texans on the road the previous two years. While the Bengals have been a relevant team again under head coach Marvin Lewis, they are still looking for their first playoff win under his regime.
Offense (Averages per game):
Points: 26.9 (6th) Pass Yards: 258.7 (8th) Rush Yards: 109.7 (18th)
As noted above, Andy Dalton is a very talented quarterback. While he has been inconsistent and made mistakes, he is still only in his third year and has improved each year. As a result, there needs to be patience so he has time to develop. He has made the playoffs in each of his three seasons. A playoff win will be a good step in his progression. The biggest playmaker on the Bengals is top receiver AJ Green. He had another stellar season with 98 receptions, 1,426 yards, and 11 TDs. Marvin Jones has developed into a very good second receiver hauling in 10 TDs this season compared to 1 TD in his rookie season. While they have a timeshare at running back with veteran BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard, Bernard has distinguished himself as the best back. He is a dual threat as he had 695 rushing yards at 4.1 yards per carry with 5 TDs while also catching 56 balls for 514 yards and 3 TDs. The future is very bright for Bernard.
Defense (Averages per game):
Points: 19.1 (5th) Pass Yards: 209 (5th) Rush Yards: 96.5 (5th)
The Bengals defense has been great this year. They are 5th in points allowed and yardage allowed. Pro Bowl linebacker Vontaze Burfitz is a tackling machine with 171 tackles during the season. While the Bengals are near the bottom of the league in sacks, they compensate by generating turnovers as their 31 takeaways are second best in the AFC. A concern going into the playoffs is the health of their secondary. They put cornerback Leon Hall on the I.R. during the season while their other cornerback Terrence Newman is recovering from an injury late in the season.
Special Teams:
Mike Nugent had a decent season hitting 18/22 field goals. I remember his time with the New York Jets. He is nothing special. He will not kill you but is also not going to give you an advantage.
The Matchup:
The teams met in week 13 in San Diego and the Bengals won 17-10. It was one of the Bengals three road wins. The teams were very evenly matched. Both quarterbacks threw for 1 TD and 1 Int. The time of possession was almost identical. It is a good indicator that it will be another close game.
The keys for the game are as follows:
1) Quarterback play as Rivers gives the Chargers a slight advantage. Philip Rivers has had a great year. He has been one of the better QBs in the league during his career. As I noted above, Andy Dalton has been very bad in the losses on the road. However, the Bengals are at home where Dalton has done well. Regardless, I give the Chargers an edge in a close game with Rivers.
2) The health and effectiveness of the Bengals secondary. Keenan Allen has made big catches and TD catches down the stretch. He will take advantage of a compromised secondary.
3) AJ Green as he is the best playmaker and gamebreaker on the field.
4) Turnovers are always important. Rivers has protected the ball very well this season but the Bengals force a lot from their opponents. As a result, something needs to give. On the other side, Dalton cannot have a mistake filled game. As neither defense generates a big pass rush and both offenses are among the best in the league in pass protection, I do not expect pass pressure to affect either quarterback. Key turnovers at the wrong time may decide a close game.
Prediction:
The Bengals won the first matchup. The rematch is in Cincinnati where they are 8-0. While the Chargers have the better quarterback, the Bengals have the better overall team and more playmakers. The Chargers will certainly battle and make it a close game with a chance to win. Nevertheless, I believe the factors that I noted will give the Bengals an edge in a close game.
Bengals win.