Fantasy Football 2013: Wide Receivers

Overview

Wide receivers are tricky in fantasy football. There are three elements for a wide receiver to be a great fantasy option: his skills as a receiver, his quarterback, and his targets. Absence of any of the three can be detrimental to the fantasy value of a receiver. For example, Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best wide receivers in the game. However, his lack of a solid quarterback has limited his production in recent years. Last year was a mediocre statistical season for him as he had only 798 yards receiving and 4 TDs as the Arizona Cardinals failed to field a NFL caliber quarterback. A good example of how targets can affect fantasy value is in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has had a talented group of wide but guessing which receiver he will lock on for touchdowns is like roulette. Jordy Nelson had 15 touchdowns two years ago while James Jones had 14 touchdowns last year. While Nelson was hurt last season, his injury increased Jones’ targets and led to a big fantasy season.

Due to those three factors, the production of most wide receivers can fluctuate greatly year over year. Consequently, a top wide receiver that is certain to produce as a top receiver every year is just as valuable as a top running back. If you are unable to secure a wide receiver in the first 2 tiers, you should consider waiting till rounds 6-9 to grab whatever receivers are left as the remaining pool of receivers have very similar risk and reward. Generally, I like to target wide receivers that are playing with a quarterback they have been playing with for multiple years already as chemistry between a wide receiver and his quarterback is important for fantasy success.

Some big wide receivers have already sustained significant injuries. I was expecting Percy Harvin to have a big season in Seattle but he will miss most of the season. Michael Crabtree looked great at the end of last season with Colin Kaepernick’s big arm at the helm during San Francisco’s Superbowl run. However, Crabtree will miss most of the season as well. Philadelphia Eagles Jeremy Maclin is already out for the season. Remember to put these guys on your do not draft list.

Tier 1

Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions)

Brandon Marshall (Chicago Bears)

Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys)

A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)

Andre Johnson (Houston Texans)

 

These receivers are the top fantasy receivers. They have elite talent and do not have comparable receivers on their team that will reduce their targets. Calvin Johnson is in a league of his own. He is the Adrian Peterson of wide receivers. He only caught 5 TD passes last year and still ended up as the top fantasy wide receiver as he broke the record for receiving yards in a single season and added 122 receptions. He is the only receiver I would consider taking over most top running backs. If you are in a league that only allows starting 2 RBs but 3 WRs, I would consider targeting Calvin Johnson first. Marshall returned to his quarterback from Denver, Jay Cutler, in Chicago and returned to elite fantasy production. They are a great example of chemistry between a QB and WR being important. Marshall should have another big season. Dez Bryant is as talented as anyone. He broke out last year with a top fantasy season but could have done more if he did not have big drops throughout the season. If he improves on his drops, he could challenge Calvin Johnson as the top dog. Regardless, he will be a fantasy stud.

 

Tier 2

 

Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons)

Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)

Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts)

Victor Cruz (New York Giants)

Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints)

Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers)

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)

 

These receivers will have great fantasy seasons. However, they do not have as much upside as the top tier either because they are not as talented or they have other receivers on their team that reduce touches. Demaryius Thomas showed he was a top receiver once Peyton Manning showed up in Denver. Instead of having Tim Tebow who could not throw, Thomas got one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time throwing to him last year. While the acquisition of Wes Welker will cut into his receptions, he should still have an elite fantasy season as Manning will find him. Vincent Jackson showed immediate chemistry with Josh Freeman in Tampa. It should get even better in year 2. Roddy White and Julio Jones cancel out their production a little bit but they are both top fantasy receivers. In terms of Jones, he has freakish talent and athleticism. Randall Cobb is one of the most explosive players in football but the Packers have way too much receiver depth for the Packers to solely focus on getting Cobb the ball. Larry Fitzgerald now has a quarterback with a pulse in Carson Palmer. Before Palmer’s injury, the pairing would be a match made in heaven. Nevertheless, Palmer should make Fitzgerald an elite fantasy receiver again.

 

Tier 3

 

Hakeem Nicks (New York Giants)

Wes Welker (Denver Broncos)

Danny Amendola (New England Patriots)

Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs)

Eric Decker (Denver Broncos)

Stevie Johnson (Buffalo Bills)

Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers)

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)

DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles)

James Jones (Green Bay Packers)

Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers)

 

Hakeem Nicks would be in Tier 2 without his injury concerns. He was a complete fantasy bust last year as he could not stay on the field. Wes Welker will be great in Denver. However, Eric Decker plays a similar game and they will cut into each other’s production. While it will make the Broncos a better team, their individual fantasy stock takes a hit. The Patriots signed Welker’s clone in Danny Amendola. With Brady as his quarterback, Amendola will have a big season if he stays healthy. Like Nicks, it is a big “if”. Dwayne Bowe will enjoy having a competent QB in Alex Smith, who was having the best season of his career in San Francisco before getting hurt and losing his job to Kaepernick. Andy Reid’s presence as the head coach should also lead to a more efficient offense. With Mike Wallace’s departure from Pittsburgh via free agency, Antonio Brown has a chance to step up as the top receiver on the Steelers. Moreover, he has good chemistry with QB Ben Roethlisberger as they have been teammates for years. Desean Jackson can have a comeback season in Philadelphia with his explosiveness down the field and Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense. Either James Jones or Jordy Nelson will probably have a big fantasy season for Green Bay. As Nelson is currently injured and questionable for the first game, Jones has an advantage. However, both players could have a big season. At the very least, they should be solid. If they are both healthy and playing well, they will cut into each other’s production.

 

Tier 4

Mike Wallace (Miami Dolphins)

Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys)

Mike Williams (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)

Lance Moore (New Orleans Saints)

Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville Jaguars)

T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts)

Michael Floyd (Arizona Cardinals)

Anquan Boldin (San Francisco 49ers)

Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh Steelers)

 

Mike Wallace is one of the NFL’s best deep threats. However, he is playing with a new quarterback as he starts his first season with the Dolphins. His fantasy production will depend on how quickly he builds a connection with second year QB Ryan Tannehill. Miles Austin can still give elite production and be a great WR2 when he is on the field. Unfortunately, health has been a significant issue recently. Anquan Boldin can be a solid WR2 with the injury to Michael Crabtree. He should be able to lessen the blow of losing Crabtree a little for the 49ers. Similar to Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders has a chance to break out with the departure of Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh.

 

Tier 5

Greg Jennings (Minnesota Vikings)

Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins)

Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders)

Sidney Rice (Seattle Seahawks)

DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)

Andre Roberts (Arizona Cardinals)

Ryan Broyles (Detroit Lions)

Golden Tate (Seattle Seahawks)

Kenny Britt (Tennessee Titans)

Brian Hartline (Miami Dolphins)

Rueben Randle (New York Giants)

Josh Gordon (Cleveland Browns)

Donnie Avery (Kansas City Chiefs)

Tavon Austin (St. Louis Rams)

Brandon LaFell (Carolina Panthers)

Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans)

Santana Moss (Washington Redskins)

Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans)

Jacoby Jones (Baltimore Ravens)

Santonio Holmes (New York Jets)

Jeremy Kerley (New York Jets)

Greg Little (Cleveland Browns)

Malcom Floyd (San Diego Chargers)

Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville Jaguars)

 

I love Greg Jennings as a wide receiver. Unfortunately, he has Christian Ponder throwing to him instead of Aaron Rodgers. He will also have to build chemistry with Ponder. On the other hand, he will get a lot more targets with less comparable receivers surrounding him. Pierre Garcon had trouble staying on the field last year but was great with RGIII when he did play. DeAndre Hopkins is the Texans first round pick this past draft as they try to get a second receiver to compliment Andre Johnson. Hopkins made some plays and caught a touchdown in the first preseason game. The Detroit Lions have a pass happy offense. Broyles may be able to take advantage of the system and put up some stats. He is a trendy, hyped pick going into the season. If Hakeem Nicks cannot stay healthy, Rueben Randle could have a good fantasy season with the New York Giants. In regards to Santonio Holmes, someone has to get targets on the Jets. However, it will be shaky targets as the passes will come from Mark Sanchez or rookie Geno Smith. If Smith can make an impact as a rookie, Holmes can be fantasy relevant. However, he needs to return from injury before he has any production. In the meantime, Jeremy Kerley is on top of the depth chart for a putrid wide receiver core.  Regarding Justin Blackmon, he is a very talented receiver. However, he is suspended the first four games for violating the substance abuse program. Moreover, he is fighting with his teammates. He is completely immature. While I was high on him last year, I am just as down on him going into this season.

 

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