Survivor has had a great run over the last two years with thrilling seasons in the each of the past four seasons. It is due for a dud. Accordingly, Survivor: San Juan del Sur has not lived up to recent seasons. One tribe, Coyopa, dominated and won all the immunity challenges early to send the other tribe, Hunahpu, to tribal council each of the first three weeks. They only lost the fourth immunity challenge when the self-proclaimed “Kingpin” of the tribe foolishly took it upon himself to throw the challenge to start the process of voting out the threats in his tribe. Even after a tribe switch, Coyopa continued its winning streak. In general, the strategic play of the survivors was pathetic in the first part of the season. They were also not intriguing. The most interesting aspect of the early season was the participation of John Rocker. He is a former professional baseball player who is best known for his short time as the Atlanta Braves closer. In 1999, he became notorious for making controversial remarks, including racist and homophobic comments, to Sports Illustrated in response to why he would not want to play and live in New York City. As a New Yorker, I remember it vividly. The New York Mets were in a heated rivalry with the Braves at the time. The Braves won the NL East perennially and the Mets just could not get past their archrivals. The two teams met in the NLCS that year. The Braves won the series in 6 games to advance to the World Series where they swept in 4 games by the New York Yankees. Near the end of the season, John Rocker emerged as a young, fireballer closer. He was a key part of the Braves success in the second half of the season and the playoffs. He was also very arrogant and had no problem screaming at the Mets fans to rub in his success whenever he got big outs against the Mets. As a result, Mets fans already hated him. His ignorant and inflammatory remarks brought that hate to a whole new level. Afterwards, he quickly flamed out and was no longer the dominant closer he was when he first entered the league. Nevertheless, the stigma of being a racist and homophobe has followed him in his life even though he has been out of baesball for a very long time. He is visible as a political commentator on Fox News. His selection to be a contestant in Survivor is very interesting. Of course, CBS definitely wanted him because his notoriety would draw attention even if it is bad attention. In terms of his reputation being a factor in his chances to play the game successfully, it is very intriguing to see whether the other contestants recognize him. When and if they realize who Rocker is, it is fascinating to see if the other players use his past against him. The answers to these questions were one of the few intriguing elements of the early season before the merge.

On the other hand, Survivor: San Juan del Sur is supposed to be Blood vs. Water 2. The format was used last fall. Again, each player is on the opposite tribe of their loved one. Despite a lot of skeptics of the idea (myself included), Blood vs. Water was an overwhelming success and I was captivated by that season. The original season of the format also had returning players. In my opinion, it was a key reason the format worked so well. Of course, the returning players have already established reputations in past seasons. As such, the viewers already know who they are and their strategies. The show does not have to introduce them to the viewer as new players. Consequently, it just needed to tell the stories of their family members. In the current season, we need to learn a completely new cast and it is also difficult to keep track of which pairs are together and their relation. Moreover, the strategies and styles of play for the returning players are a huge factor. They could be a threat for good or bad reasons. They might have been a strong player or a hated player and go into the game with a target on their backs. In the past, they would have to answer for their past play. In the Blood vs. Water twist, their loved one could pay for their prowess or their past mistakes. It played out very well in the first season for this format. This element was completely missing in the current season since no one knew who each other were before the season. In addition, returning players are naturally savvier at the game. As such, they bring better strategic play to the table. Unfortunately, the new players this season performed terribly at the beginning. Some of them appeared to be recruits and do not have much idea on how the game is played or some of the basic rules. It was painful to watch. However, the season rallies with a good finish. After the weaker players are weeded out, the play of this season’s stronger players redeems it and one player shines above all. More importantly, we get to see the power of loved ones working together and voting as a pair. It is an aspect of Blood vs. Water that we did not get in the first season of this concept since the returning players, who lost their loved ones, were smart enough to target the couples.

Below are my other thoughts about this season. The show decided to use Exile Island instead of Redemption Island so I will start with my thoughts on the differences. Then, I will head to the players and the key takeaways from each episode to prepare you for the finale if you snoozed out in certain parts of this season.

Exile Island vs. Redemption Island

There are many critics of Redemption Island. Purists hate it because they believe that it is completely against the point of the game if a player can return after being voted out. There is definitely some merit to the argument. Nevertheless, I do not mind it and think it adds to the drama of the game if used in the appropriate situation. The blood versus water theme is perfect for Redemption Island. It led to a lot of animosity and anger in the first blood versus water season. Most notably, Brad Culpepper took a lot of heat from the other players since he was blamed for voting out the returning players’ family members. It was amplified by the voted out player, who was at Redemption Island, screaming at him. Moreover, a player could switch places with their loved one on Redemption Island. It is another element that adds to the intrigue and emotion of the family member twist.

This season decides to use Exile Island instead of Redemption Island. It does not lead to the intense moments that Redemption Island gave us when it was combined with the blood versus water theme. Nevertheless, Exile Island is a good twist to bring back for the season. In this season’s version, a player squares off against their loved one in each reward challenge. The winner wins reward for his tribe but sends his loved one, the loser, to Exile Island. In addition, the winner will pick a member of his own tribe to send to Exile Island with his loved one. Once they arrive, they are presented with two urns for each of them to select. One urn has a blank parchment while the other urn has a clue to the hidden immunity idol. These elements of Exile Island add a lot to the game. First, a contestant needs to weigh winning reward for his team against sending his loved one to Exile Island. When he does win, the selection of a player that he sends with his loved one to Exile Island is a strategic move. He has an opportunity to send someone he trusts to bond with his loved one and potentially create a larger alliance with whoever his loved one is aligned with on the other tribe. On the other hand, he can send threats to Exile Island and plot against them while they are gone.  Of course, his decision can also backfire. His tribe can also get suspicious and vote him off if they think a bigger alliance is being formed that will target them at the merge. The hidden immunity idols at Exile Island also put targets on any players who go there since it is often assumed that one of those players have the idol and the other players will want to flush it out. While there is a lot of potential in these Exile Island twists, the new players have barely explored those possibilities. They have shown themselves to be inept and I doubt they have thought through these considerations.

Current Thoughts on the Survivors

1. Dale Wentworth(Copoya) & Kelley Wentworth (Hunahpu)

Dale is a farmer from the state of Washington. His daughter, Kelley, lived and grew up on the farm with him. Dale is crafty and wise with plenty of life experience. He showed his ingenuity by snapping his glasses in half so he could use both lenses to amplify the sunlight in order to start a fire at camp. On the other hand, sacrificing his vision so quickly in the game is not well thought out. He is a real Survivor fan and one of the few players this season that has a clue about the game and how to properly play it. However, his problem is fitting in with the younger tribe. He is older and clearly not well attuned to the younger generation. Unfortunately, his poor social game got him excluded from the other players in the tribe. Like her father, Kelley, is a Survivor fan that knows about the game. She is athletic and a strong competitor. As a result, she has been good at the challenges. While she has done slightly better than her father with her social game, it has not been much better.

2. Drew Christy (Hunahpu) and Alec Christy (Copoya)

Drew and Alec are brothers from Florida. Drew is the older brother and a male model. Alec is a student. They are athletic. Drew rubs his tribe the wrong way. He does tasks that no one asks him to do and expects his tribe mates to appreciate them. He is an alpha male that bosses other people around and has no interest in listening to anyone. He is also lazy. When the tribe does day to day chores that he does not want to do, he sleeps instead. He is also completely delusional about his prowess as a Survivor player. He thinks he is a mastermind although he is an irritating fool who has no power. His brother Alec is not much better. He is not a good player and jealous of his brother. He has also demonstrated that he is a bully. He constantly fights with the youngest player in his tribe, Baylor. From his twisted perspective, he got the short end of the stick as Drew’s younger brother. Consequently, Baylor is the younger sibling he never had to abuse during his childhood. There is an ugly scene when he does not think Baylor did a great job with one of her chores, yells at her, and forces her to do it again. He will not be long for this game with his poor behavior.

3. Jeremy Collins(Hunahpu) and Val Collins (Copoya)

Jeremy and Val are a married couple from Boston, Massachusetts. Jeremy is a fire fighter and Val is a police officer. They are Survivor fans with knowledge of the game. Jeremy is a strong player who is observant. Consequently, these strengths helped him gain control of his tribe in the early going. On the other hand, he has clear flaws. He is too gung ho and ready to play. As such, he tends to overplay. During the first reward challenge, he is the first player to volunteer. Unbeknownst to him, he plays against his wife in the challenge. When he wins, Val is sent to Exile Island. Since she misses the first few days of the game at Exile Island, it is a significant detriment to her game. Jeremy also has a temper. If something is bothering, he cannot stop himself from letting out his rage even if it means divulging critical information that hurts his game. This flaw is a fatal sin in the game. In terms of Val, she looks like a decent player. However, she also makes her mistakes to compound the hole her husband left her in after his actions got her sent to Exile Island.

4. John Rocker (Copoya) and Julie McGee(Hunahpu)

I already commented a bit about John Rocker so I will start with his girlfriend, Julie McGee. As soon as you see her on screen, it is obvious that she is a stunningly beautiful woman with noticeable curves and lush lips. She is one of the most attractive women to appear on Survivor. At the beginning, she appears to be more than just a pretty face. She is very good in the confessionals and makes very keen observations. Since she is able to handle John Rocker, I assume she is patient and able to deal with Type A personalities. Her problem going into the game is John. His infamy still follows him and can be linked directly to her since she is his loved one. She is also emotionally linked to him so any harsh feelings towards him will negatively affect her emotionally. She could definitely benefit from an early John Rocker exit if she knows how to use it. It would allow her to play the game intelligently and deliberately. Unfortunately, it becomes obvious that she is not an outdoors person. She is not a mentally tough individual that can handle the rigors of the game. Her game play is one of the biggest disappointments in a season full of them.

As for Rocker, I expected him to implode in the game of Survivor. While he is definitely a childish and raw person, I think he did pretty well. He clearly does not know all the rules and strategies of Survivor. However, he plays hard and tries to think strategically. In terms of the controversial comments he made in the past, his actions during the show do not line up with the hate that was interpreted from his words. Obviously, the comments are ignorant and offensive. Nevertheless, he did not act like a homophobe or racist on Survivor. He had no problem trusting and aligning with Josh, who is gay. He also had no problem bonding with Jeremy (a minority) on Exile Island and ultimately agreed to an alliance in exchange for his promise to protect Val. In my opinion, he is a jock who is not well spoken and has no filter. He is liable to say ignorant comments because they are the first thoughts in his head and he has no filter. He also feels no need to apologize because he thinks it is his right to do so with no social awareness of how his comments are perceived. Overall, he behaves himself pretty well in the show. While I am not stating he is a saint, I can confidently say that there are a lot bigger problems in the world than John Rocker.

5. Josh Canfield(Copoya) & Reed Kelly(Hunahpu)

Josh and Reed are a gay couple living in New York, NY. They are also very religious. Josh has differentiated himself as one of the better players this season. He is observant, sharp, and calculating. He clearly has a handle on the game. He is able to figure out what other players are up to and adjust his moves accordingly to shift the game in his favor. He also has the correct idea on how to play the game. He understands that needs to separate sentiment from game play. If it means using a player that everyone else hates and he may find irritating further in the game so that he can advance his game, he will not hesitate. For example, he has no problem working with John Rocker despite the notoriety if he can use Rocker’s vote to better his own game. In a perfect scenario, he would sit next to Rocker in the end and sweep the votes of the jury. However, Josh is also smart enough to cut bait if the game dictates it. On the other hand, Josh has not been flawless in executing his strategy. He has made a couple of nonsensical decisions based on his feelings and keeping his word. He will need to separate his emotional attachments strategy in the future to succeed in the game. Nevertheless, he is a strong contender in a season of incompetent competitors. Josh’s partner is Reed. He is in great physical shape. He is also intelligent and social. In addition, he is a Broadway actor and those skills can come in handy to deceive other players. He has a knack of subtly suggesting ideas to his tribe mates that work in his favor. While Josh gets the screen time and shines in the first part of the season, Reed really excels in the latter part and saves it.

6. Jon Misch (Hunahpu) and Jaclyn Schultz (Copoya)

Jon and Jaclyn are the Ken and Barbie from Michigan. They are the best looking couple this season and are in great physical condition. Jon is a Type A male. Jaclyn is a physical threat. She does not appear to be a significant strategic player. She is gorgeous and will keep the attention of male viewers. Jon is made to appear aloof at times but he is smarter than he sounds and plays a solid game. Jaclyn is very observant and smart. There is definitely more to her than her incredible looks. The two work well together and are able to bob and weave between alliances.

7. Keith Nale (Hunahpu)& Wes Nale (Copoya)

Keith and Wes are a father and sign duo from Louisiana. Keith is a fire fighter. As a result, he has a natural bond with Jeremy which is solidified when Keith spends time with Jeremy’s wife, Val, on Exile Island. Keith seems like a nice guy. Unfortunately, he does not have a clue on how to play the game. When he cannot find the hidden immunity idol, he assumes Jeremy has it since he is the only other person to go to Exile Island to get a clue. He goes on to voice his suspicions to the rest of the tribe without proof. Of course, it is not even true and he eventually finds the idol for himself. He ruins his relationship with Jeremy. It is ridiculous to alienate his closest ally. He should have asked Jeremy first before causing an issue. He is also completely flabbergasted when Jeremy tries to explain the concept of an alliance and a sub alliance [where he thought Keith and he were in a true alliance within the alliance]. While Keith thinks the idea of sub alliance is a ridiculous idea, it is Survivor 101. Keith is also a loving father and genuinely proud of his son Wes. Like Keith, Wes does not appear too savvy in the game. Wes also does not come off too bright. He recognizes John Rocker immediately. When he asks what John’s last name is, John responds “Wetteland”. John’s cover is pretty bad. John Wetteland was one of the better closers in baseball during his playing career. Consequently, John hardly deflects the fact that he is a baseball player by saying he is John Wetteland. Nevertheless, Wes does not fall for it. He asks whether John’s real last name starts with “R” and is 5 letters [Rocker is actually 6]. Wes will enjoy his time playing the game but he does not have a chance to win the game.

8. Missy Payne (Hunahpu) & Baylor Wilson(Copoya)

Missy and Baylor are a mother and daughter pair from Texas. They are very close. We know she is a loving mother. When she faces Baylor in a challenge, she inadvertently busts Baylor’s lips. With Baylor in tears, Missy naturally has difficulty giving a real effort for the rest of the duel and loses to Baylor. As a parent, she does not want to see her child hurt and definitely cannot stomach harming her child. The presence of Baylor can be a detriment to Missy’s game. Missy is a motherly figure that other players tend to like. She has used it to her advantage. Surprisingly, she has leadership qualities that allow her to take command of alliances. She has also been strategic and made good decisions. I am not sure if she is charming enough to win over a jury but she looks like a strong player that can get to the end of the game. On the other hand, Baylor is feisty and has had to fight to stay in the game at the beginning since her tribe has been losing. She admittedly hopes to align herself with a strong player that will help carry her to the end. While she wanted to establish an alliance with Josh early on, he did enough shaky things to lose her trust. However, it has made her play better as she knows she cannot rely on Josh to stay alive. In the end, she is only 20 years old I do not think she has the life experience to win the game. She would be the youngest winner in the history of the show.

9. Natalie Anderson (Hunahpu)& Nadiya Anderson (Copoya)

Natalie and Nadiya are identical twins from Sri Lanka. They are very close. In addition, they are very talkative. While they are very social, they can also be very raw and talk way too much. My first impression was that their inability to filter their opinions can rub players the wrong way and get them voted off.  They have also competed on the Amazing Race twice. While the reality television experience can help a little, the Amazing Race has very little in common with Survivor. The Amazing Race experience can be a detriment as much as it is an advantage because it puts a target on their backs. Nevertheless, these twins are sharp and ready to play.

Episode Key Takeaways

1. Suck It Up and Survive

The first episode is straightforward. We are reintroduced to the blood vs. water concept and learn about Exile Island. Jeremy volunteers and wins the first reward challenge. It sends his wife to Exile Island and puts her immediately behind the 8 ball. Her tribe loses the immunity challenge and she is discussed as an option to vote off by the tribe since they do not know much about her. In the first vote, players are just looking for a reason to vote someone off. However, Dale helps guide the votes away from Val. He convinces his tribe that Nadiya is a huge threat because of her experience on the Amazing Race. He also notes that he watched Nadiya and her sister backstab other players in the Amazing Race, which is not true. As such, Nadiya is the first player voted off this season. In a peculiar move, Reed throws away his vote and writes down Baylor’s name. He did not want to write down Nadiya’s name because he gave him her word and he was moved by her story during Tribal Council. His inability to control his emotions is terrible game play. He compounds the problem by voting for Baylor who wants to be his closest ally. She would have been an extra vote for him. Instead, he confesses to her and loses a lot of her trust. While Reed suggests his vote deflects attention to the fact that they are allies, she is smart enough not to buy or accept it. Nevertheless, she is willing to play along for now because she is fighting an uphill climb against the numbers and needs Josh’s alliance for now.

2. Method to the Madness

John Rocker loses to Julie in the reward challenge. When Jeff Probst asks John how it feels to lose to his girlfriend, he notes he can take off the “friend” part of “girlfriend” and it is embarrassing enough that he lost to a girl. He is sent to Exile Island and bonds with Jeremy. While Jeremy knows about John’s past, he is willing to work with John to help protect his wife. John accepts the offer. When John’s tribe loses again, Val is again one of the candidates to vote off. She devises a strategy to say that she has two idols which will protect her and her ally, Jaclyn. Unaware of how the game works and the fact that there is only one hidden immunity idol on each beach, John buys Val’s story. In reality, she has no idols. Moreover, John finds the idol so there is no way she even has one. Nevertheless, he thinks she has one and tells her to use it since votes are coming her way. He thinks she will play it and be safe so he can honor his word to Jeremy. In my opinion, it is a mistake for Val to state she has an idol. Survivors should never admit they have the idol because it puts a target on their backs. By stating she has two, it just makes her look ridiculous but forces her tribe to vote for her to call the bluff.

On the other hand, she had the numbers against her so she had to try something. It actually works in her favor because the vote is split and John tells her that the votes will be split between her and Baylor. As such, Val is smart enough to have Jacklyn and her vote to for Baylor to beat the split vote. As such, I cannot kill her strategy since it gave her alliance an opportunity to vote out Baylor even though they were outnumbered 6-2. However, Josh is observant enough to realize John may have an alliance with Val when John pulls Val aside to talk even though they have never talked in the past. Consequently, Josh wisely votes for Val instead of going with the initial split vote plan where he is supposed to vote for Baylor. It forces a tie and Val is voted out in the tiebreaker.

3. “Actions vs. Accusations”

At the reward challenge, John publicly apologizes to Jeremy for not having the power to save Val. It is a ridiculous decision. He openly confesses to everyone in the game, including his alliance, that he had a secret alliance with Jeremy and Val. It causes his tribe and his alliance to distrust him. In addition, it only infuriates Jeremy more as he does not believe John did everything he could to save Val. When he gets back to camp, he tells his tribe all about John’s past and the racist and homophobic remarks John made to Sports Illustrated. In the immunity challenge, Hunaphu heckles Copoya. In particular, Natalie loudly calls out John for being a racist and homophobe even though she has no idea what he specifically said and is only relying on a second hand account from Jeremy. After being called a racist and homophobe for so many years, I am not surprised that John eventually reacted angrily. In my opinion, his response was tame. I expected a meltdown. Nevertheless, his tribe is taken aback by the aggressive tone he uses to yell back at Natalie. They perceive his presence as negative. As such, they decide to blindside John with the idol in his pocket.

From my perspective, the decision to vote John out is wrong. They lost three straight challenges and he is a physically imposing player. Moreover, the fact that the other tribe does not like him should not matter. In reality, it is a good thing for their own games since he will always be a bigger target than them. He also has no chance to win so he is a great player to bring to the end. Unless he is completely miserable to deal with at camp, there is no good reason to vote him off. In general, he has gotten along with his tribe mates. For all those reasons, his tribe made a mistake.

4. “We’re a Hot Mess”

This episode set the game of Survivor back years. I have never seen so many poor moves by so many players in a single episode. We will start with Drew. When Jaclyn loses the reward challenge to Jon, she is sent to Exile Island. Drew volunteers to go with her. During that time, he decides to throw the next challenge since his tribe needs to start voting out the threats. Throwing challenges is never a good idea in the game of Survivor. It has backfired each time. It always makes more sense for the other tribe’s players to be eliminated before you start cannibalizing your own team. While it may make more sense in a blood vs. water season since it will protect your loved one, it is not a reason Drew states. It is also dumb because he is irritating and will be one of the candidates to be voted off. Of course, he is delusional and does not realize it. He also acts like a jerk and demands his alliance vote out Kelley because she has watched every episode of the show and is a threat. He refuses to listen to anyone and has no problem voicing his obnoxious opinions in front of everyone in the tribe out loud. The women are literally right next to him and listening when he explains that there is a women’s alliance that needs to be eliminated. He goes so far to say that “And then [after Kelley is voted off] all these bitches don’t know what to do but come to us”. His poor decisions make him a candidate for potentially being the worst Survivor player in the show’s history. He gives the women an idea of a female alliance even though none exists. The men also outnumber the women 5-4 so it is impossible for the men to be outvoted. Moreover, his antics put a target on his back.

However, Drew is not the only one making poor decisions. Jeremy cannot contain his anger for Keith’s betrayal. He calls out Keith and foolishly admits that Keith was his closest ally. Moreover, he discloses the alliance he is in. As such, the other players know they are not in it and need to counterattack. His inability to control his temper will get him eliminated. The men also completely fall apart. They cannot agree on which player to vote for during tribal council. They eventually end up voting for different players. It splits up and wastes their votes. 4 different players received a vote. With the majority alliance fractured, the 4 women band together and is joined by Jeremy to vote out Drew. Drew dug his own grave by throwing the challenge then creating a self fulfilling prophecy of a women alliance voting him out.

5. “Blood is Blood”

With the elimination of Drew, the power structure of the Hunahpu tribe is upside down. Since Jon is aligned with Drew, he is in trouble. On the other hand, Jeremy appears to be in full control now as he aligned with the women on the vote. However, the show has a history of throwing curveballs to shake things up. Accordingly, there is a tribe switch that leads to three pairs of loved ones uniting on Coyopa and another pair uniting on Hunahpu. The new Coyopa tribe includes Kelley, Dale, Jon, Jaclyn, Keith, Missy and Baylor. There are three pairs of loved ones and Keith. While Keith is concerned about being an easy target, it is more likely that a couple of the pairs will want to gang up on the third pair. Since Dale butted heads with Baylor, Dale and Kelley are at odds with Baylor and Missy. The friction is intensified when Missy shows up at camp and cooks up a lot of rice with no regard for rationing. Rightfully so, it drives Dale mad and he cannot hold his tongue.  As a result, Jaclyn and Jon have the power to decide which pair gets sent home. The new Hunahpu consists of Jeremy, Josh, Reed, Julie, Natalie, Alec, and Wes. Jeremy is a big loser in the tribe swap since he had control of the tribe before things were shook up. Instead, he is at the mercy of Josh and Reed who know he is a threat in the game. However, Hunahpu wins the immunity challenge. Jon and Jaclyn have an interesting decision on which pair to side with at tribal council. On one hand, Baylor betrayed Jaclyn earlier in the game. On the other hand, Missy is very close to Jon. I would have decided to ally with Dale and Kelley because they are sharper players. Jon and Jaclyn side with Missy and Baylor. After listening to post game interviews, Jon and Jaclyn made the correct decision. Dale and Kelley could not stand their tribe and would have jumped to any alliance on the other side after the merge. As a result, Jon and Jaclyn assessed the situation accurately and acted accordingly.

6. “Make Some Magic Happen”

At the end of the previous episode, Hanahpu asked Jeff for more rice because they went through most of their supply due to overeating. Jeff agreed to bring more rice but in exchange for a steep price. I agree with the outrage of the Survivor community about Jeff giving more rice to the tribe. The title of the show is still “Survivor”. Proper rationing of food is a part of surviving. If they were dumb enough to eat through it, they should not receive any help. A human can survive at least 3 weeks without food so they would not have died. Survival is still a key element of the game so they should have been forced to live without rice. They could still gather other food and play for food at the reward challenges. The only people I felt bad for were the former members of Coyopa who inherited this problem. They properly rationed their rice and got the short end of the stick because the former members of Hunahpu are at the Coyopa camp eating the rice they saved. In the end, Jeff agrees to trade rice for Hunahpu’s shelter. The consensus of the Survivor community is that the price is not steep at all. Jeff let Hunahpu off the hook easy. Many critics feel Jeff should have made them go to tribal council to vote someone off. However, I think the majority alliance would have no problem going down that route. Consequently, I think Jeff should have forced the tribe to draw rocks for a tribe member to be randomly eliminated. It would make every player think twice before accepting the rice.

At Coyopa, Dale knows he is in trouble after Kelley got voted out. He knows he is the next on the chopping block. He comes up with a brilliant idea. At the beginning of the season, he found an object that looked like it could be a hidden immunity idol but was definitely not one. Accordingly, he took the item in case he could use it later on. In this episode, he decides to use it as a fake idol. He shows it to Jon and tries to work out a deal. In exchange for Jon helping keep Dale in the game for another vote, Dale will give the [fake] idol to Jon. Accordingly, Jon buys it hook, line, and sinker. He believes Dale’s story and considers the offer. This move proves that Dale is a true Survivor fan and a real player. It is a variation of a play made by Sash Lenahan in Survivor: Nicaragua when he asked for Marty Piombo’s idol in exchange for helping keep Marty in the game a little longer. However, Jon immediately tells Missy and she quickly convinces him to reject the offer. Instead, she says they will split the vote by placing three votes on Dale and two votes on Keith. It shows how much control Missy has over Jon. Similarly, she has the same control over Keith. It is a testament to the strong game she is playing. In the end, they lose the immunity challenge again and her plan goes through with Dale getting voted off because he does not have a real idol to play. It is a shame because Dale is one of the few legitimate players in this season. On the other hand, his move hurts Missy’s situation. Since she split the vote by putting two votes on Keith, it alienates him immediately. It makes it clear to Keith that he is on the bottom so he should switch sides as soon as he can.

7. “Million Dollar Decision”

With 12 Survivors remaining, the merge arrives. For Jeremy, it is a huge relief because he can rally his alliance back together. For Josh, he knows it is a missed opportunity to vote out Jeremy before the merge. One of the funniest moments is when Jon celebrates with Jaclyn that they are datable because they made it to the merge. Of course, it is a reference to Kat Edorsson’s comments that she is not datable anymore for her loved one, Hayden Moss, in the first Blood vs. Water season after she got voted off before the merge. It is a ridiculous yet very funny sentiment that Jon mocks. Once the tribes merge, the battle lines become clear quickly. Jeremy is in the power position again because he has Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, Natalie, and Julie on his side which gives him a 7-5 advantage. On the other hand, Josh and Reed have Keith, Wes, and Alec. Of course, they should thank Dale for turning Keith against Missy or Jeremy would have an insurmountable 9 votes (Keith would bring Wes with him). However, Josh thinks that he also has Baylor on his side. In theory, Baylor would bring her mom into the alliance. It is a poor assumption. He has been separated from Baylor and should have suspected that Missy was the dominant personality in the mother daughter relationship. When he tries to sway Baylor by implying that she owes him for saving her early in the game, she feels guilty because she does not intend to honor the original alliance. Nevertheless, Missy sets her daughter straight and aggressively tells Baylor to “Get in the back seat and let me drive!” In reality, Baylor should have come to the conclusion herself. Josh wrote her name down at the beginning even though they were allies. She already told herself she cannot rely on Josh. As such, I do not know why she would even consider going out of her way to protect Josh unless it helped her game.

Fortunately for Josh, he realizes that Baylor is no longer on his side. He understands that his only option is to sway Jon and Jaclyn to change sides. Reed and he make a strong argument to Jon and Jaclyn centered on the idea that Jeremy is a huge threat and will target the couples. The part that strikes a chord with Jon and Jaclyn is the implication that Jeremy is out to vote off the couples. While Jon admits that it is a poor decision to join another alliance since they would be at the bottom of it, the fear of Jeremy eliminating the couples overwhelms logic. As such, it appears that Jon and Jaclyn are willing to change sides. In Survivor, a sly edit could make things muddier than they actually are. As a result, I remained skeptical that they would actually blindside Jeremy. Nevertheless, the season was finally getting a little interesting with a Josh versus Jeremy showdown. Before I could get excited, the unthinkable happens: JULIE QUITS the game. She thought about it the last episode but it seemed liked she was brought back from the edge. When she speaks to Missy about it again, Missy tries to make a plea for Julie to stay one more vote. When Julie admits she misses her loved one [John Rocker], Missy makes a lame attempt to say that she is Julie’s loved one. The argument is flawed for many reasons. Missy needed to boost Julie’s morale rather than try to ask her to stay just to help her alliance’s chances. Moreover, the comment about loving Julie is a lame one especially with her own daughter in the game. There was also an incident earlier in the episode that may have pushed Julie off the edge. After the merge feast, Julie helped pack up the trail mix in her bag. Instead of offering it to her tribe afterwards, she kept it hidden in her bag. When they searched her bag, they helped themselves to it and ostracized Julie more for not sharing. In reality, this season’s cast has shown itself to be incompetent. They acted foolishly when it came to rationing rice so it does not surprise me that they would overreact to a little trail mix. It seems silly especially after they gorged themselves at the feast. Julie took the time and the effort to pack up some of the extra food so the whole incident was blown out of proportion.

In the end, Julie calls for Jeff and notes that her head is not in the game. She also says that she misses John and seeing others with their loved ones is making that feeling worse. Of course, she does not have great relationships with her tribe. She specifically states that she is made fun of by others. A specific insult is in regards to her breasts. In reality, she is just reaching for any justifications she can to quit the game. Like most fans, I hate when players quit the game. It is a privilege to be on the show and so few people get opportunity to play. It also makes no sense because she gets more prize money the longer she stays in the game. While she is not liked right now, the game can changed drastically very quickly. In the worst case scenario, her poor play is a reason for a strong player (like Jeremy or Missy) to drag her to the end because they know she will not get any votes. Overall, she is just not the type of person who could handle the elements and the rigors of the show. I give her more of a break than most quitters because she was probably dragged into the show because CBS wanted the notoriety of John Rocker.

8. “Wrinkle in the Plan”

Although Julie’s quit is disappointing, it allows the showdown between Jeremy and Josh build up for another episode. It definitely appeared that John and Jaclyn flipped last episode which would have led to Jeremy being voted out. Of course, many things can happen within a few more days. In this episode, John gets sent to Exile Island. Fortunately for him, he gets a clue to the hidden immunity idol and finds it. Wes, Alec, and Keith act misogynistic and absurdly rude to the women. In one instance, Alec talks down to Baylor and commands her to throw out the bones of the fish he just ate. They do not even care to treat Jaclyn well even though they need her and Jon as the swing votes. As far as they are concerned, Jon is in charge and Jaclyn will go with whatever he decides. It shows a complete disrespect for Jaclyn as a competent individual. She is not the fool or puppet that they believe she is. Once Jon returns from Exile Island, he has a difficult decision between choosing the love of his life and his new alliance. His choice is made easier when Jeremy wins immunity. It would have been more tempting for Jon and Jaclyn to vote out Jeremy. However, the new target of Baylor is not as appealing especially with Jaclyn’s anger towards the men. Josh is very astute and one of the better players this season. At Tribal Council, he is totally aware that his alliance has rubbed Jaclyn the wrong way and their actions flipped the swing votes again. Consequently, Josh gets voted out. In reality, Jon and Jaclyn would have been in the bottom of either alliance. Accordingly, it did not matter which alliance they chose since they need to maintain their position as the swing vote to advance regardless.

9. “Getting’ to Crunch Time”

After Josh’s elimination, I expected Jeremy’s alliance to slowly and boringly eliminate the rest of Josh’s alliance. However, this episode has one of the best misdirection in Survivor history. It also starts this season’s redemption with a good finish which prevents it from being unwatchable. A lot of critical moves occur in this episode. First, Alec, Reed, Natalie, and Jeremy win the reward challenge. Instead of going to the reward herself, Natalie gives her reward to Jaclyn. Jeremy also follows suit and gives his reward to Jon. It is a kind gesture for Jon and Jaclyn voting with their alliance in the last vote. However, it can also be seen as a strategic move to coerce Jon and Jaclyn into staying committed to the alliance. There have been mixed results for giving up reward in the past. I agree with the opinion that a player should not give up reward. While another player may be genuinely happy to receive the gesture, it also forces the other players to question whether you are up to no good and too strategic. In addition, the player giving up reward may tip who is at the top or the bottom of his alliance. Even if it is not true, perception matters. To make matters worse, Jeremy is sent to Exile Island by Jon and Jaclyn. It would not be so bad if Jon had not found the idol already. When Jeremy does not find the idol, he questions Jon about it and can easily see through Jon’s lies.

On the other hand, Jon realizes his mistakes and that Jeremy probably does not trust him anymore. Accordingly, he entertains a plan by Reed to blindside Jeremy to correct his mistakes. Up to this point, we saw the strong play of Josh. It is a treat to see Reed pull great moves. The plan is brilliant and bold. Reed searches Keith’s bag to find the hidden immunity idol and steals the clue to prove to the majority alliance that Keith has the idol. Next, he uses the fear of the idol to convince the majority to vote with him to split the vote in case Keith uses the idol. An interesting and very risky part of his plan is allowing his own alliance to vote for him. However, they have made ill advised and dumb moves throughout the season so I do not blame Reed for keeping them in the dark. Finally, his plan is persuading Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, and Baylor to vote with him to blindside Jeremy. Going into and during Tribal Council, the edit is sneaky in appearing it will be a boring, obvious conclusion that Reed or Keith would be voted out. Instead, we are blindsided [along with Jeremy] as Reed’s plan succeeds in ousting Jeremy. For Jon and Jaclyn, it is a critical move. I thought it might have been too early to make the move. From watching previous seasons, the safest strategy is to vote out the opposing alliance as soon as possible even if it is not entertaining for viewers. However, both alliances still need them so they maintain their position as the swing vote for both sides. Moreover, they eliminate a very good player who would have targeted them later on. As a result, there are plenty of merits to the move even if it may have been too early.

10. “This is Where We Build Trust”

I give Natalie a lot of credit for maintaining her composure and not flipping out on her alliance for betraying Jon. She is intelligent enough to understand that she still needs them to advance in the game. Even though she is very close to Jeremy as she calls him her “designated Twinnie”, she checks her emotions and does what is best for her game while remaining patient for the ideal time to avenge Jeremy. Accordingly, she wisely sticks with the alliance and does not do anything to alienate any of them. More importantly, she expands on her relationships with them. She becomes even closer with Baylor when she engages her to find the idol. For this reason, Baylor completely trusts Natalie. As Natalie knows, Baylor is crucial because she will bring in her mom and two votes critical votes that Natalie will need later on to make a potential big move. In the other alliance, Reed pulled off a big coup by engineering the blindside of Jeremy. However, he knows he needs to do more to take control of the game. As a result, he hatches another genius plan. He convinces the majority alliance to split the vote again to flush out the idol. He sells it by stating he and Alec will vote with them to place votes on Wes and Keith. In reality, Keith and Reed have decided that their minority alliance of 4 will all vote for Jon once the votes are split.

My anticipation going into this Tribal Council was definitely high. I wanted to see if Reed could pull it off again or whether the majority alliance could sniff it out. My thoughts before it were that Reed would pull it off because he had duped them very badly. Unfortunately, Reed did not align himself with the smartest players. Reed delivers a brilliant performance by pretending and selling that Keith and Wes are the targets because they have an Idol. However, his performance is too good as Keith believes it even though he knows the real plan. Consequently, he foolishly blurts out to Reed “stick to the plan”. Nevertheless, Jon is still not able to put it all together to play his idol. After the votes are read, it is not until Natalie tells him to play the idol that he does so. Since Keith also plays his idol, Wes is voted out with only two votes placed against him. For Natalie, it is an interesting decision for her to tell Jon to play his idol. Allowing Jon to be voted out of the game with his idol would appear to be fitting retribution for his betrayal of Jeremy. However, her choice is another strong testament to her game. While she is looking for revenge, she knows it is not the proper timing for it. She is poised, patient, and aware enough to realize it will hurt her game to allow Reed to take over the game. He is definitely a much stronger strategic threat to the game than Jon. Accordingly, it makes perfect sense for her to delay her revenge until later so that her own game can advance farther. Reed definitely planned on going to the final four with his three alliance members and it is highly unlikely that he would let Natalie crack into it.

11. “Kind of Like Cream Cheese”

In the aftermath of the last Tribal Council, Jaclyn gives credit to Natalie for telling Jon to play his Idol which saves him from elimination. It causes friction between Jon and Jaclyn as he wants to take credit for himself so he can present it to the jury as evidence of why he should win. He also notes that Jaclyn had already suspected Reed was looking to betray them and came up with the idea for Jon to play the idol before Natalie told him to do so. Whether Jon and Jaclyn discussed it beforehand or not, he did not play it until Natalie told him to do so. As a result, there is no way to detract from Natalie’s ability to sniff out the plot. Next, the reward challenge involves each player having three ropes. In each round, a player gets one chop at another player’s ropes if he answers a question about the cast correctly. Naturally, the majority alliance teams up and eliminates Reed, Keith, and Alec immediately. It is only interesting because the remaining players collude to decide who should ultimately win the challenge. Rather than waste time, Jeff stops the challenge and simply asks who they want to win. In the end, they choose Missy since she has yet to win a challenge. While it is a gift, it is also normally also a curse. Since she is the “winner”, she is asked to pick two players to go with her on the reward. She picks her two closest allies, her daughter Baylor and Natalie. While Jon is happy to be sent to Exile Island so he can look for the Hidden Immunity Idol that has been placed back into the game after he used his idol, Jaclyn is naturally upset that she is at the bottom of the alliance and not chosen. The challenge was never allowed to finish. All the remaining players, including Jaclyn, agreed to bow out so Missy could win. Accordingly, I do not blame her for being upset about her exclusion in the reward and feeling like she is on the bottom. It creates an opening for Reed to persuade her and John to join his alliance. Consequently, it is always better to be picked for a reward than be the person doing the selecting. If you choose your closest allies, you make it obvious that the other players in your alliance are on the bottom. If you choose the players on the bottom, you risk alienating your closest allies and creating distrust with them. Throughout the history of the show, the negatives of being in the position to choose others for reward far outweigh any benefits that can be gained.

Reed is an opportunist and utilizes the slight of Jaclyn to manipulate her into wanting to turn against her own alliance. Of course, she cannot make a decision without Jon. He has a productive time on Exile Island again as he finds the idol again. When he returns, he is understandably drained by the isolation. He is also irritable. When Jaclyn immediately goes to Jon with the not so Earth shattering news that Reed says that Jon and Jaclyn are at the bottom of their alliance, Jon is completely dismissive of Jaclyn. In defense of Jon, it is obvious that Reed would try to do and say whatever he could to save himself. As a result, it is not news that Reed would try to convince Jaclyn to turn since it is his only option to continue in the game. Moreover, Reed just tried to blindside Jon. Why would Jon possibly want to trust or help Reed after the move?  For these reasons, Jon does not want to hear that Jaclyn wants to go with Reed. However, he should have listened to what Jaclyn had to say first. By ignoring her, she does not feel like an equal in the decision making. As a result, they cease to talk to each other through Tribal Council and dim any hope Reed has to survive. While I do not want to watch Survivor to see a couple try to work through their problems, it is a unique aspect that could only occur in a Blood vs. Water season. In the context of the game, it presents a complicated obstacle that a savvy player like Reed cannot overcome. Consequently, he is voted out of the game. Reed is definitely a great player that gave this season its redeeming moments. Episode 10 and 11 are very exciting and made the end of the season watchable and enjoyable.

12. “Still Holdin On”

With the end nearing and the minority alliance at the brink of extinction, a smart Survivor player begins to consider how to use the remaining players to vote out his own alliance. Accordingly, Natalie knows it is time for her to make her move and try to vote out Jon. Her closest ally, Baylor, is onboard with the plan. On the other side, Jon has no idea that a plot is against him. He foolishly starts to work on his argument to the jury instead of watching his back. His trust in Natalie only strengthens when she chooses Jon and Jaclyn to join her in a reward. It is a brilliant, strategic move by Natalie. She cannot stand spending time alone with them but does it anyway because it is the move she needs to make for the betterment of her game. I completely respect her ability to control her emotions and use her brain instead. It is especially impressive in the trying environment Survivor puts a person in with the elements and starvation. However, the plan is delayed when Jon wins immunity. As a result, the vote is between Keith and Alec. In my opinion, it does not matter which player stays in the game since either of them would go along with the plan to vote out Jon. It keeps them in the game. However, Natalie sees Keith as the better asset since he is better able to win against Jon in the Immunity Challenges. In reality, the challenges are carnival games and require a lot of luck. I do not think it is a sound rationale for Natalie to keep Keith for this reason. Jon, Jaclyn, and Missy want to vote out Alec. Of course, they split the vote in case one of the two players has an idol. It gives an opportunity for Natalie to switch her vote from Alec to Keith to vote out Alec 4-3. I did not like the move because it is a minor blindside of her alliance that does not accomplish much. It also reveals that she is against Jon and she loses the element of surprise to blindside him and vote him out with an idol in his possession.

13. “Let’s Make a Move”

The general belief was that Natalie would need to answer for her betrayal in the previous Tribal Council. However, she claims that she was told to vote for Alec so she voted him out by accident. Hysterically, Jon completely buys the story. He even states that he cannot wait to tell the jury what a terrible mistake Natalie made by voting for the wrong person. He has a one track mind and thinks he has the win in the bag. As such, he is incapable of realizing the obvious. Even though Jaclyn appears to buy Natalie’s story, she at least considers that Natalie could be betraying them and brings up the idea to Jon. However, he just does not understand how it makes sense for Natalie to betray them. Jaclyn’s fears are alleviated by Jon’s confidence. Meanwhile, Baylor is tasked with telling her mother, Missy, that it is time for them to vote out Jon. Missy is completely against the idea because she has developed a strong bond with Jon in the game. They have a mother-son relationship that even makes Jaclyn jealous. She gave Jon her word and she does not want to break it. In reality, I am surprised that Missy is so conflicted with the idea. She will need to vote out Jon in order to save her own daughter. The decision to choose Baylor over Jon is obvious. It is a great example of the Blood vs. Water concept changing the dynamic of the game. In any other season, Missy would never betray Jon and stick with him till the end. However, she cannot go against the well being of her own child, Baylor. As a result, she goes with the plan to team with Keith to split the votes against Jon and Jaclyn that leads to blindsiding Jon without him using his idol. Natalie also does a fine job in managing Keith so he does not reveal the plan during Tribal Council like he did with Reed’s plot.

While Jon appears to be a fool in this episode, his postgame interviews are eye opening. In defense of why he trusted Natalie so much, he notes that there was a final 3 deal where Jaclyn and Baylor would volunteer to be voted out so that he and Missy could go to the end with Natalie. It was decided that Jon had the better chance to win over Jaclyn and Missy had the better chance to win over Baylor. As such, this plan allows both couples to be represented in the Final Three with seemingly their best chance to win representing them in the Final Tribal Council. Since Natalie gets a spot too, it is not crazy to assume she would be agreeable to the plan. It also relieves the tension that would occur for one couple to try to oust the other. Of course, Jon has no idea how close Natalie is with Jeremy and that she has been plotting her revenge since Jeremy left the game.

There is also a very important subplot in this episode. Missy hurts her ankle. In the previews, the show teases us that she may need to be evacuated for medical purposes. Instead, it is an intended misdirection. The medical staff is able to immobilize the foot and allow her to continue if she chooses. I admire the fact that she chose to stay. It would have been a shame wondering what would have happened with Missy in the game.

Thoughts/ Predictions Going Into the Finale

Natalie has clearly been the best player in this season. She has been poised and smart. Moreover, she is likeable person. However, it does not mean she will win. While she has a hidden immunity idol, that only guarantees she will be in the Final Four. She will need some good fortune by winning the Final Immunity Challenge or the other players making the decision to bring her to the end. If Keith or Jaclyn wins that challenge, Missy and Baylor would surely vote Natalie out so they can go to the end as a mother-daughter pair. If Missy or Baylor wins Final immunity, the smart move is to vote out Natalie since she has played the best game and would surely win. However, they may not be aware enough to realize it or may just take Natalie to the end out of loyalty. In my opinion, the next player with the best chance to win is Jaclyn. She can claim some of the big moves that she and John made. She can also explain how she is the more aware player of the two and Jon needed her assessment of situations. In addition, Jaclyn has a sympathetic story in that she is unable to bear children herself. As such, the money is an opportunity to afford a surrogate to have children. Of course, she already has one vote in Jon. Despite Keith’s clueless play at times, he is the last person in his alliance to survive. People tend to root for the underdog. His son, Wes, is a sure vote. If he gets to the end with Baylor and Missy, I believe he wins.

Unfortunately for Baylor and Missy, I do not think the jury will vote for either of them to win. I give Baylor a lot of credit for doing as well as she has at her very young age. She has had to scrap and been a key part of critical decisions such as Natalie’s blindside of Jon. However, she has been accused of being lazy. At one point, Reed even calls her a “brat”. There is also a perception that she ran to mom and hid behind her when some o f the players were mean to her. As a result, the jury will not want to award her the money. In terms of Missy, she has played a solid game and I give her a lot of credit that she is playing hurt. The show has been accused of sexism in the past. If a woman is strategic, they are called a bitch. If a man plays in a similar manner, they are a great player. It tends hurt mothers more as it appears that players cannot reconcile a motherly figure betraying other players. This problem is amplified for Missy since her daughter is in the game and the jury may be annoyed with how protective she is. Although I think it is a little unfair, I do not see either of these players winning the game.

14. “This is My Time”

At the reward challenge, Keith wins an advantage for the next immunity challenge that he utilizes to win immunity. I expected Jaclyn to be voted out so Natalie, Baylor, and Missy could continue as a trio and try one more time to oust Keith. However, Natalie makes a big move to use the idol on Jaclyn to save her then vote out Baylor. It is a brilliant move that I never contemplated. Going into the finale, I felt Natalie would have been eliminated if Jaclyn or Keith won immunity in the final four because Baylor and Missy would stick together. Natalie’s move prevents that scenario by breaking up the final couple. Moreover, she becomes the go to person for everyone left in the game. She recruited Keith for the Jon blindside so she is his only option. Natalie saves Jaclyn so they have a bond. While Missy is upset, Natalie is the only remaining member of her alliance. On the other hand, there are negatives to the plan. Since Natalie engineered blindsides on Jaclyn’s loved one (Jon) and Missy’s loved one (Baylor), they may be looking for revenge. Moreover, Natalie continues to differentiate herself as the best player and becomes a bigger target. Nevertheless, I agree with her move because it puts her in a better position in the event that she does not win final immunity.

In the final immunity, Jaclyn wins. It appears that Jaclyn and Missy are not aware enough to realize Natalie has played the strongest game. However, they begin to discuss Natalie’s amazing moves and that they feel no obligation to bring Natalie to the end because she is responsible for the elimination of their loved ones. Consequently, I thought they were finally wising up on Natalie and would vote her out. At Tribal Council, Natalie does an excellent job painting Keith as a jury threat. It is not just lip service. Keith has been a very straightforward, likeable player. Moreover, most of the jury is male and some of them have been accused of being misogynists. As such, it is believable that they would vote for him to win. For this reason, he is voted out by the women. In the straw vote Jeff has during the reunion show, Keith would have won with 4 jury votes. As such, voting out Natalie would not have resulted in Jaclyn or Missy winning anyway.

With Natalie in the Final 3, it is evident that Natalie would win. The Tribal Council questions are generally boring. Reed has a scathing rant against Missy noting that she tried to be a motherly figure but acted like a wicked stepmother that rubbed it in the minority alliance’s faces [a metaphor to Cinderella] that they would not be invited to the ball. While I was not surprised that Missy would take heat for not being able to reconcile playing strategically while trying to be a motherly figure, I was shocked that this speech came from Reed. He is a super fan so I did not expect him to be a bitter jury member. Missy is a good player who toughed it out despite an injury. She did not play nearly as well as Natalie but I did not think she deserved to be verbally bashed. Regardless, Reed’s speech is the only memorable moment from the Tribal Council and is great for entertainment value. During the voting, Jaclyn receives Jon’s vote and Reed’s vote. It is obviously an editing trick to try to keep some drama despite the fact that Natalie winning is a foregone conclusion. It is clear that Reed voted for Jaclyn knowing that Natalie would win and he wanted to use his vote to give Jaclyn second place over Missy.

Final Thoughts

The post merge episodes salvaged this season. It was on track to be one of the worst seasons. However, the finish is very interesting and the result is very satisfying. The best player wins, which is the result I always root for every season. Moreover, Natalie’s identical twin, Nadiya, was voted out in the first vote. They are very similar and extremely close since they are identical twins. It provides an interesting case study that proves luck plays a significant role in the game of Survivor.