2016 NFL Notes: Early Season Contenders, Pretenders, and Busts

After six weeks, the NFL season is starting to take shape. It is a large enough sample size to begin to sort out true Super Bowl contenders, pretenders, and the busts. Of course, we have the usual suspects, pleasant surprises, and shocking disappointments early in the 2016 season.

Contenders

1. New England Patriots (5-1): +58 Point Differential

It is business as usual for the New England Patriots. No Tom Brady for the first four games? No problem. Basically no Rob Gronkowski for the first four games? Also no problem. Playing with the third string quarterback running the offense for 2 ½ of those first four games? Only a minor problem. Impressively, they still went 3-1 in the first four weeks of the season. Bill Belichick is an absolute wizard. Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, and their New York Giants were the only thing standing against Belichick being considered the undisputed greatest head coach of all-time. Right now, he stands at the top of the pantheon with Vince Lombardi. Winning the two Super Bowls against the Giants, including completing the undefeated 2007 season, would have put Belichick above even Lombardi. Now, Brady and Gronkowski are back. Brady is even more motivated to stick it to the league for the suspension. The Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett double tight end package will cause matchup nightmares for opponents. The Patriots are (-7) favorites in Week 7 as they take on The Steelers, are at the top of the list of contenders to win the Super Bowl again.

2. Minnesota Vikings (5-0): +56 Point Differential

It looked bad when the Vikings lost their starting quarterback, Terry Bridgewater, right before the season. It became bleak when they lost franchise running back, Adrian Peterson. However, their GM Rick Spielman made a bold move by paying a steep price to trade for Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eagles. Although he has been a bust in his career, he is a former 1^st overall pick with a world of talent. In addition, he is in the best situation of his career even without Adrian Peterson. Norv Turner is one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history. He called the plays for Dallas Cowboys during their first two Super Bowl victories in the 90s. Tory Aikmen still raves about him today. It is no coincidence that Bradford is playing great under Turner. Of course, Mike Zimmer is a hell of a head coach and leader too. Nonetheless, this team is a Super Bowl contender because they have an overwhelming defense. It is probably their best defensive unit since the “Purple People Eaters” of the late 60s to 70s that carried the Vikings to 4 Super Bowls they lost. They have dominated in the early season and stifled the explosive playmakers of the Green Bay Packers, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants. Their championship hopes will depend on Bradford playing well enough to complement their defense. Another issue is kicker Blair Walsh. He has still not gotten over his missed chip shot field goal that would have won their Wild Card Round game last season against the Seattle Seahawks. If he continues to be a problem, they will need to move on to another kicker before he costs them in another big game. Nevertheless, this team is for real. I am a believer.

3. Seattle Seahawks (4-1): +27 Point Differential

The 2016 Seahawks are definitely not as good as the two teams that won a Super Bowl and probably should have won a second Super Bowl in a row if not for a foolish play call at the goal line to not run the ball with Marshawn Lynch. Their elite running game is gone because Marshawn Lynch retired. Their defense is not as dominant. On the other hand, the continued improvement of Russell Wilson’s game offsets the loss of Lynch. Although it will not be as easy to close out games without Lynch [who got stronger and ran harder while the opponent got tired as the game progressed], their offense is still very capable. Although their defense is no longer an all-time great defense, it is still a championship level one. Their biggest problem is their offensive line. It has played poorly and gotten Russell Wilson banged up. It needs to play better but it is difficult to significantly improve a line during a season. In the end, the Seahawks have kept their core intact and it is accustomed to winning. They continue to be title contenders.

4. Denver Broncos (4-2): +32 Point Differential

To be honest, I am surprised the Broncos have played so well. Before the season, I thought they would have a bad season. They lost key defensive personnel over the offseason and were forced to replace Peyton Manning with their 7^th round pick from 2 years ago, Trevor Siemian, after Brock Osweiler took a massive contract with the Houston Texans. Despite the losses on defense, it has proved that it is still a dominant unit that can win them another Super Bowl. They have been especially stifling against the pass. Trevor Siemian has been a revelation and shockingly played great. Then again, Gary Kubiak is a brilliant offensive mind and can fully implement his offense with the retirement of Peyton Manning. For these reasons, they are near the top of the league in scoring. Although Peyton Manning could no longer physically play by the end of the season, his knowledge and leadership were important to making the offense run during the Super Bowl run last year. Of course, it is a lot to ask from Siemian. While their defense can definitely take over again and win them another title, I do not expect them to duplicate the same effort from last year’s playoffs.

On the Bubble

1. Dallas Cowboy (5-1): +52 Point Differential

By far, the Cowboys have the best and most dominant offensive line in the NFL and it has flexed its muscle this season. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott is an all-World, complete running back who has been brilliant running behind that line. With the injury to Tony Romo, rookie Dak Prescot has flashed poise and leadership. It is clear that Romo is nearing the end of his career at his age and inability to stay healthy. Cowboy fans have had a love-hate relationship with him in his career anyway. Accordingly, it is not a surprise that a lot of them are ready to forget Romo and move on to the Dak Prescott era. In my opinion, it would be a mistake if the Cowboys truly want to contend for the Super Bowl this season. A NFL team has never made the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback. Only four teams have advanced to the Conference Championship games: Shaun King (1999 Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Ben Roethlisberger (2004 Pittsburgh Steelers), Joe Flacco (2008 Baltimore Ravens), and Mark Sanchez (2009 New York Jets). Although Prescott has obviously played well, the Cowboys have kept it simple for him. They are not asking him to make all the throws and he needs to prove he can pass deep effectively. Against the elite teams and defenses in the NFL, he will be forced to make those throws. Romo can absolutely make those plays. If the Cowboys can get him and star receiver Dez Bryant healthy, they are real Super Bowl contenders with that powerful offense. However, Romo and Dez are major question marks at this point. Without them, the Cowboys are a solid playoff team but championship pretenders.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): +31 Point Differential

The Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the league. Leveon Bell is arguably the best and most versatile running back in the league. Ben Roethlisberger is a Hall of Fame quarterback leading the attack. They also have explosive, talented young receivers even though they need to develop and stop dropping passes (e.g. Sammie Coates). On the other hand, these are not your father’s Steelers. Throughout their history, they have been known for a dominant defense and running the football. They have adapted to the new NFL and transformed into an elite passing offense. However, their defense has not kept up with the offense. It has ranged from bad to average. I am skeptical that they can win a championship with it. In addition, the Steelers offense has not traveled on the road in the early season with crushing losses in Philadelphia and Miami. Although their elite offensive power makes them dangerous, I do not consider them a true contender at this point.

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-2): +33 Point Differential

The Falcons have rebounded from a meltdown in the second half of last season and their explosive offense is leading the NFL in points. Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in the league with unbelievable athleticism. Matt Ryan is a very good quarterback who was awful last year. Give him credit for coming back strong this season. Mohammed Sanu has been a great offseason pickup to complement Jones in the receiving core. They have done it against tough competition too. The wins at Oakland and Denver as well as a home win against the Panthers are impressive. Even a close loss to the Seahawks in Seattle is impressive. On the other hand, they got off to a fast start year before falling apart. They have also been a team that seems to always be missing something to get over the hump and get to the Super Bowl. Part of it is intangible in terms of an edge or toughness that will put them over the top. The tangible element is their defense. They have never put together a championship caliber defense. It does not look like they have one this year either as they have given up a lot of points. I am definitely impressed with the Falcons’ start. Nevertheless, my gut tells me they will ultimately be pretenders.

Pretenders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (3-2): +7 Point Differential

The Chiefs are consistently one of the better teams in the league. They are solid throughout their offense and defense with no real holes. They are led by a great head coach. The Chiefs also have one of the best homefields in the league in Kansas City. However, they do not have a dominant unit or gamebreaker that can take over a game in a playoff situation. Although Alex Smith is a productive quarterback, I am skeptical that he is a Super Bowl caliber one. The Chiefs are a very good team that will probably make the playoffs but not get far.

2. Green Bay Packers (3-2): +1 Point Differential

In recent years, the Packers have been a good, not great, team that has been elevated to contender by the best quarterback in the league: Aaron Rodgers. In the early season, Rodgers has shown signs of regression. Shockingly, he is one of the worst quarterbacks in terms of efficiently throwing the ball deep this year. The offensive has lacked explosiveness. Of course, Jordy Nelson missed all of last season so rebuilding chemistry with him and the rest of the receiver core could be a reason. If the struggles continue, it is valid to question whether Rodgers is beginning his decline. Even if Rodgers and the offense turns it around, they are not as good as the other elite teams in the NFL. Rodgers gives them a puncher’s chance if he is still Rodgers. If he is not, this team is totally a pretender.

3. Oakland Raiders (4-2): -11 Point Differential

The Oakland Raiders are back. I am glad to see this proud franchise on the rise again. They have found their franchise quarterback in Derek Carr. I am absolutely a fan. They are also surrounding him with talented skill players (e.g. Amari Cooper, Latavius Murray, etc.). I also love the fact that they are finding ways to gut out close games and win despite their youth and inexperience. Although their offense is looking good and producing, the Raiders are a team that is still building. They got a dose of reality against the Chiefs in Week 6 and have a negative point differential for the season. For these reasons, they are a breakout team but pretenders for the Super Bowl this year. Of course, they are primed to be contenders soon [probably in time for their move to Las Vegas].

4. Buffalo Bills (4-2): +59 Point Differential

After an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets in Week 2 and dropping to 0-2, the Bills were staring at 0-4 with the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots staring at them in Week 3 and 4. It looked like the Bills season was going down the drain and head coach Rex Ryan was on the hot seat. They have won 4 straight since. Their offense and defense have played great. A +59 point differential is an eye popping number. The win streak and point differential puts them back on the map. The Bills have a chance to end their long playoff drought. In my opinion, Buffalo will be thrilled just to return to the playoffs. I am not even going to think contender unless they keep up at this pace.

5. Washington Redskins (4-2): 0 Point Differential

The Redskins are a good team but not a great team. A similar assessment can be made about their quarterback, Kirk Cousins. He is good but does anyone believe he is a franchise quarterback who can lead the Redskins back to the Super Bowl? They have done well to win 4 straight after losing their first two games. However, their 0 point differential suggests they are not a top team that could make a deep playoff run.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2): +57 Point Differential

Much to the agony of the long suffering Cleveland Browns fans [whose team traded the second overall pick to Philadelphia], Carson Wentz looks like the real deal. Similar to how the Cowboys have utilized Dak Prescott, the Eagles have kept it simple with Wentz. Of course, opponents will eventually adjust and force him to do more. Unlike Prescott, he definitely has the arm strength to make deep throws. The Eagles are a little bit a product of an easy schedule. They have come back to Earth the last two weeks. Nevertheless, the point differential is very strong even if a couple of the games were against terrible teams. In the end, the Eagles do not need to contend this season. It looks like they have found a franchise quarterback and this season is about his emergence and development. Making the playoffs would be a bonus.

Busts

1. Carolina Panthers (1-5): -15 Point Differential

Last year’s NFC Champions steamrolled through the regular season and playoffs on route to the Super Bowl before running into the Denver buzzsaw defense. The Panthers featured a top offense and top defense last season. They hoped to be more of the same and return to the Super Bowl and win this year. They have real problems this season. On offense, the book is out on the Panthers. The production declines significantly as Cam throws more passes when defenses force him to beat them out of the pocket. On defense, the Panthers decided to cut back on the cost of the secondary which included allowing Josh Norman to walk in free agency. Although Norman is a jerk and sounded like one when he made the following statement, he was absolutely correct in pointing out “You get what you paid for”. The Panthers secondary is bad and getting exposed. Before last season, they had the same problem and it was the Achilles heel that prevented them from contending for the Super Bowl. As a result, it was foolish to downgrade. To make matters worse, their brilliant front 7 defenders have not played as well as they have in the past to make up for it. In my opinion, they have put themselves in a huge hole that will be difficult to claw out of and make the playoffs. Forget returning to the Super Bowl.

2. Arizona Cardinals (3-3): +49 Point Differential

Like the Panthers, the Cardinals had Super Bowl aspirations going into the season. Despite a slow start, I believe the Cardinals will be fine. They suffered a couple of close losses at home to the Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. They surprisingly got blown out in Buffalo but the East coast games have been traditionally difficult for West Coast teams. In my opinion, they will get it going and be a factor in the playoffs. Their point differential is a healthy +49 and Carson Palmer is back from injury. Ultimately, their Super Bowl chances depend on the play of Palmer. He has struggled mightily in the face of pass rush. He has also melted down in big games. At this point in his career, I am skeptical he will ever come through. For this reason, the Cardinals will probably be contenders but never win it all because Palmer will let them down when it counts the most.

3. Houston Texans (4-2): -19 Point Differential

The Texans paid big money to sign Brock Osweiller away from the Denver Broncos to be the missing piece of the championship puzzle. He has struggled and does not look like the star quarterback that they hoped he could be. To make matters worse, they lost their best player, J.J. Watt, for the season. Even without his injury, the Texans are another team that seems like they are missing something. They do not have the guts, toughness, or adaptability to compete with the better teams. They are overrated and underachieving. They beat the average to bad teams but get pummeled by the elite teams. They have been embarrassed by the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings this season. In regards to the Patriots, they started their third string quarterback. It is already clear that the Texans will not sniff the Super Bowl even if they make the playoffs by winning an awful division.

4. Indianapolis Colts (2-4): -14 Point Differential

Andrew Luck is the best young quarterback in the game. The Colts have been disillusioned because of his brilliance. They are not close to being a Super Bowl caliber team but Luck elevates a mediocre squad so much that management believes they are a contender. They have done nothing to give him the proper help he needs. They have put him into harm’s way by not trying to build an offensive line till this year. It has basically gotten him pummeled early in his career and the long list of injuries last season is evidence. Although they have finally attempted to address the need by drafting lineman, it is still a work in progress and Luck continues to get clobbered. The skill position players they have put around him are also mediocre. T.Y. Hilton is a good receiver who has big play ability but he is far from a superstar. While they have other young, talented receivers (e.g. Donte Moncrief), none of them have broken out yet. In terms of the defense, it is a complete disaster. Colts GM Ryan Grigson has the nerve to blame Andrew Luck’s massive contract for his inability to assemble a defense. The only reason he has a job is because he lucked into a franchise quarterback who is a one man team. Otherwise, he would have a two win team and lost his job a long time ago.

Things to Watch for in Week 7 and Beyond

In the words of the immortal and wise Yogi Berra, “It is getting late early”. Although you cannot win a championship in the first two months of the season, you can lose it. For some teams, the season is on the brink. Here are some key games in Week 7 with long term implications and other important things to watch for the rest of the season.

Week 7

1. New York Giants (3-3) @ St. Louis Rams (3-3) [London]

Both teams have had their up and downs. Odell Beckham Jr. and the Giants offense finally had a breakout game. Beckham is one of the most freakishly talented players ever. He is a gamebreaker. However, he is also a major distraction with his antics on the field and sidelines. Eventually, he needs to grow up. Hopefully, he does because I love watching him play and hope he is great for a long time. The Rams were embarrassed by the San Francisco 49ers 28-0 in week 1. They turned their season around with three straight wins which included victories against the Seahawks and Cardinals. They have since lost the last two. Both teams might be .500 teams but Week 7 will be important in getting above .500 before their bye weeks.

2. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

Carson Wentz will face his biggest test in his young NFL career. If he and his team passes, maybe the Eagles can contend this year.

3. Oakland Raiders (4-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

It is a game between two rising young teams. The Raiders are already back. I thought the Jaguars would make a big leap forward too but sputtered at the beginning of the season. They have a tendency to start games slow before their high powered offense explodes. It would not surprise me if their season follows a similar path. Both teams should be interesting to follow and keep an eye on them the rest of the season. In this matchup, expect very little defense.

4. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) @ New York Jets (1-5)

The Jets faced the toughest schedule for the first 6 weeks. Their poor record is not a surprise. They are finally entering a stretch of winnable games. They need to start reeling off wins immediately if they want to salvage their season. The Ravens started 3-0 and have lost 3 straight. They need to turn it around immediately if they want to make the playoffs.

5. New England Patriots (5-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

It could be a playoff preview. It has huge implications on who could potentially represent the AFC in the Super Bowl as it could determine who has home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Unfortunately, Big Ben tore his meniscus and requires surgery. He will miss this game and at least a few weeks.

6. Seattle Seahawks (4-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

It is a bigger game for the Cardinals because they need the win much more than the Seahawks after a slow start. A win by the Cardinals will also reinforce that they are still contenders that need to be dealt with by the NFC.

Other

1. Chip Kelly

Chip Kelly’s system was successful in his first season. Afterwards, he got way ahead of himself and thought he could be the GM too. It was a disaster in his second season with the Eagles and he got fired. He signed with the San Francisco 49ers to just be the head coach this season. It has been a disaster. His lauded system may not work now that the league has adjusted. Playing fast is great when it works but puts way too much strain on a team when it does not. It would not surprise me if Kelly abandons the NFL during or after this season. There are big college programs that would love to bring him back to the college game (e.g. Return to Oregon, Texas, etc.).

2. Cleveland Browns

Everyone knew they would be bad. Are they 0-16 bad? They will probably find a way to win a game or two but their schedule is not easy the rest of the way either. To make matters worse for their fans, they will be reminded that they did not take Carson Wentz all season.

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