Fantasy Football 2016: Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

Fantasy Football 2016: Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses

For most fantasy players; selecting tight ends, kickers, and defenses are a fantasy burden rather than something that actually excites them. The strategy for these positions is standard operating procedure by now. Do not try to overthink it and game the system. For tight ends, it is Rob Gronkowski then everyone else. Gronkowski makes for a solid late first round pick because he gives any fantasy team a distinct advantage, point differential at his position, over every other team in you fantasy league. If you do not get Gronkowski, you have to then decide whether you want a productive tight end in the 5th or 6th round over a potential solid RB2/ WR2 or waiting till later in the draft and taking a flier on a deep pool of tight ends who are good but not great. Besides Gronkowski, most stats of tight ends are not that exciting. For kickers, draft one in the last round or not at all and pick up one before the season starts. For fantasy, an ideal kicker is one that plays in an offense that racks up a lot of yardage but has issues putting the football in the endzone so it has to settle for field goals. It is impossible to predict. You are better off just picking up a kicker every week based on favorable matchups. I will not even waste time listing some kind of ranking for kickers. Defenses are similar to kickers. The best fantasy defenses generate a lot of turnovers and score off them. It is difficult to predict going into the season. If you look at the top scoring defenses last year, it will probably surprise you. I drafted the Seattle defense last year and they only finished as the 8th highest scoring in my league. In general, you want to try to work the matchups and pick on weak opponents. If you are in a league that has 2 defenses, you will need to try to select at least one good defense (e.g. invest a draft pick in between rounds 10-12 to try to guess).

I will start with the tiers for tight ends first which are based on the rankings from FantasyPros.com.

Jordan Reed

Tier 1

Tight End            Team

Rob Gronkowski              NE

Jordan Reed       WAS

Rob Gronkowski really belongs in a tier by himself. When healthy, he is good for at least 1,100 yards and double digit touchdowns. However, I decided to give him company. Reed busted out last year with 87 receptions, 952 yards and 11 TDs. They are Gronkowski like numbers. Of course, I want to see Reed do it again to prove it is not a fluke. However, he has been a trendy pick in recent years and he will definitely be featured heavily again in the Washington offense as he is now their best skill position player.

 

Greg Olsen

Tier 2

Greg Olsen          CAR

Travis Kelce        KC

Delanie Walker  TEN

Coby Fleener      NO

Gary Barnidge   CLE

Antonio Gates   SD

Julius Thomas    JAC

In my analysis of wide receivers, I referred to solid WR2s in Tier 2 who are solid 1,000 yard and 6 touchdown type players whose value will generally fluctuate whether they get some TD luck (e.g. abnormally only getting 2 TDs or scoring 10+ times). Tier 2 for tight ends are comprised of such players. Of course, a 1,000 yard and 6 TD caliber tight end is worth more than a receiver that puts up similar stats. As a result, it is a legitimate strategy to pick up one of these tight ends before a Tier 2 wide receiver or running back. However, I tend to want to wait until I draft every Tier 2 running back and wide receiver I like and hope a Tier 2 tight end remains. I prefer to draft a tight end in round 10 or later. At the earliest, I want to reach in the 8th round. Greg Olsen has become a pretty sure 1,000 yard and 6 TDs playing with Cam Newton. Travis Kelce has been an 850+ yards and 5 TDs each of the last two seasons. He has upside to do more but he should at least put up the same stats of the last two seasons. Delanie Walker improved to 1,000 yards and 6 TDs last season. He should continue to get the most targets in Tennessee this season so I expect him to replicate it. Coby Fleener is a tease and completely overrated. He played with Andrew Luck in college then continued to play with him his first 4 years in the league. Even with that QB/ TE chemistry, he never broke out in the NFL. I find it difficult to believe he will do it in a new system that spreads it out. In addition, Sean Payton has already called him a “work in progress”. If you like Fleener, pick him up off the waiver wire when he gets dropped.

Who is Gary Barnidge? I had to look it up. He is the tight end of the Cleveland Browns. It explains why I did not make an effort to get to know him before draft preparation time. He also put up over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs last season. He should produce solid numbers again. RGIII and whoever fills in when he gets hurt will be looking for Barnidge. Josh Gordon could come back, dominate, and take away targets from Barnidge but he is a major question mark at this time. Antonio Gates only has name value at this point of his career. He may have a good game here or there but you cannot rely on him anymore. I would move him down a tier. Julius Thomas is a good rebound candidate. It is his second year in the high powered Jacksonville lineup. They should look to utilize him more. Of course, they have a monster duo at receiver so it is not a certainty.

I would remove Fleener and Gates out of this tier. I would be happy with any of these tight ends if any lasted till the 8th round. Julius Thomas has been a top tight end before but he has the most risk in this tier since he will probably get the least targets.

 

Martellus Bennett

Tier 3

Dwayne Allen    IND

Tyler Eifert          CIN

Zach Ertz             PHI

Martellus Bennett           NE

Jason Witten      DAL

These tight ends are decent picks if you whiffed on higher ranked tight ends and just need one. Dwayne Allen has good upside. He plays with Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener is gone from Indianapolis now. He is a potential breakout candidate but his injury history is a major concern. Tyler Eifert’s value was heavily TD dependent last season. He is out 4-6 weeks and will not be duplicating the 13 touchdowns last year. If you have tight end troubles a month into the season, he should be available for you to pick up and extract some value. Zach Ertz is consistently overvalued. He is useful but only puts up 800 yards and a couple of TDs. Martellus Bennett is the most interesting name in this tier. He joins New England as they try to recreate the Gronkowski/ Aaron Hernandez double tight end matchup nightmare. I warn against expecting the moon from Bennett. The super double tight end set benefited Gronkowski more than the second tight end. Hernandez’s best year was 910 yards and 7 TDs, which is very similar to Bennet’s best season to date. I think 900 yards and 7 TDs are Bennett’s ceiling and not his floor. He is a nice pick late but do not reach on him. Jason Witten is still a great tight end on the field but he is no longer a great fantasy option. He is still Tony Romo’s safety net. However, he has not come close to the 110 receptions he put up 4 years ago. He has also never been a high TD guy. He scored 8 times 3 years ago but the totals have been decreasing steadily since.

I would not reach on Martellus Bennett but he would still be my first pick in this tier. Eifert would be next then Witten. However, you are just trying to get marginal production from your tight end spot at this point so they are all about the same. You can try Dwayne Allen if you want to gamble and knock it out of the park.

 

Jimmy Graham

Tier 4

Eric Ebron           DET

Zach Miller         CHI

Will Tye NYG

Clive Walford     OAK

Charles Clay       BUF

Jimmy Graham  SEA

Benjamin Watson            BAL

Vance McDonald             SF

Kyle Rudolph     MIN

Ladarius Green  PIT

Jacob Tamme    ATL

Jordan Cameron              MIA

Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB

Jared Cook         GB

Austin Hooper   ATL

Jace Amaro        NYJ

Cameron Brate  TB

Hunter Henry     SD

This tier is purely sleepers. I would not even bother drafting a sleeper tight end. Instead, I would keep an eye on them and pick up any of these names that may emerge. I will not comment on all of these names but will point out some notes I have on some of them. I am going to skip to Jimmy Graham. First impressions may be that he is ranked way too low. However, he is coming off significant injury. He began declining in New Orleans and the Seahawks did not feature him heavily anyway when he was healthy. For all these reasons, he has actually descended to a sleeper type player. I am personally going to avoid him. Eric Ebron was the 10th overall pick two seasons ago. He still has good upside but it is very difficult for me to say he will bust out since I am not aware of any information that would indicate it. Zach Miller has some upside. He is entering his second season playing with Jay Cutler. Could he replicate what Martellus Bennett did with the Bears? I guess he could but Bennett’s production was far from otherworldly anyway. Clive Walford has decent upside in the up and coming Oakland Raiders offense.  Kyle Rudolph is the best tight end in the NFL… but only in his mind.

As for the rest, monitor them but do not expect much.

 

Denver Broncos Defense

Defense Rankings

 

Rank      Team                                   Strength of Schedule

1             Seattle Seahawks                            T-5

2             Denver Broncos                               T-14

3             Arizona Cardinals                             T-7

4             Houston Texans                               T-19

5             Carolina Panthers                            12

6             Kansas City Chiefs                           T-16

7             Minnesota Vikings                           18

8             New York Jets                                  T-7

9             Cincinnati Bengals                           T-27

10           Los Angeles Rams                            3

11           New England Patriots                     9

12           Buffalo Bills                                      10

13           Miami Dolphins                                11

14           Oakland Raiders                15

15           Pittsburgh Steelers                          T-23

16           Jacksonville Jaguars                        T-23

17           Green Bay Packers                          32

18           Tampa Bay Buccaneers                  T-5

19           Cleveland Browns                            21

20           Detroit Lions                                     T-27

21           Baltimore Ravens                            T-19

22           Philadelphia Eagles                         26

23           San Francisco 49ers                        T-1

24           Washington Redskins                     17

25           New York Giants                              T-30

26           San Diego Chargers                         13

27           Chicago Bears                                  T-30

28           Dallas Cowboys                               T-27

29           Indianapolis Colts                            22

30           Tennessee Titans                             T-23

31           Atlanta Falcons                                T-1

32           New Orleans Saints                         4

These defensive rankings are from FantasyPros.com. Of course, they are generally not that important because of the factors that result in a high scoring offense. For example, the New York Jets are ranked 8th. However, they face a brutal schedule because they finished 10-6. They are a very good defense but the strength of their opponents are going to limit their fantasy value. In the same city, you have the Giants. They spent a fortune improving their defense. In addition, their 6-10 record last season results in a much easier schedule than the Jets. I am a Jets fan but I have to admit the Giants defense will probably have the better fantasy season even though these rankings have them 25th. Since strength of schedule is critical in evaluating a defense for fantasy, I have included the strength of schedule based on each team’s opponent’s 2015 record, via ESPN, as an additional column with 1 being the toughest schedule.

In determining defenses to target, I am looking for a sweet spot where a good defense meets a favorable schedule. If you are dead set in drafting a top ranked [top 10] defense [I advise against picking any defense before at least the 10th round], I would target Cincinnati or Kansas City then Houston. I would avoid Denver altogether. The Broncos were phenomenal last season. However, they lost key defensive personnel. In addition, they might be on the field a lot this season with a mediocre quarterback at the helm. Obviously, they are going to try to run the ball a lot to manage the time of possession split and give their defense a chance. If you do not mind waiting on a defense, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Green Bay is where you should look. I am particularly high on Jacksonville as a team on the brink of big things. Again, I also like the New York Giants since they upgraded their defensive personnel dramatically and have one of the easiest schedules in the league. Of course, I live in New York with Giants fans so I am pretty sure I will not be in position to draft them. The Cowboys could be a sneaky play too. If Romo stays healthy, they may not be on the field much and can be opportunistic with their defense like they were two seasons ago. They also feature a weak schedule.

 

For other positions, please see:

Quarterbacks: /2016/08/23/fantasy-football-2016-quarterbacks/

Running backs: /2016/08/24/fantasy-football-2016-running-backs/

Wide Receivers: /2016/08/25/fantasy-football-2016-wide-receivers/

 

 

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies. Patrick is also a passionate foodie. He is Yelp Elite for three years in a row and shares his great finds in New York and his travels.

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