Fantasy Football 2016: Wide Receivers

Fantasy Football 2016: Wide Receivers

The paradigm has shifted. Fantasy football is no longer a running back’s world. It is now ruled by the wide receivers. With the pass friendly and pass happy NFL, owning top wide receivers provides a distinct advantage in fantasy football. It is symbolized by Antonio Brown being the consensus first pick of fantasy football drafts as well as other top receivers ranked at the top right behind him. The elements for an elite wide receiver are talent, quality of his quarterback, chemistry with the quarterback, and targets. If you have all four, you get an Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham Jr.

As you evaluate wide receivers, those four criteria should be your guide. Below are my analyses of my tiers per the rankings provided by FantasyPros.com:

 

Julio Jones

Tier 1

WRs       Teams

Antonio Brown  PIT

Odell Beckham Jr.            NYG

Julio Jones          ATL

A.J. Green           CIN

DeAndre Hopkins            HOU

Dez Bryant          DAL

Allen Robinson  JAC

Last year, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr. were the top 4 receivers in the NFL. In my opinion, they are above the rest of the field. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones each had 136 receptions and 1,800+ yards. Brown hauled in 10 touchdowns and Jones hauled in 8. They have been playing with quality quarterbacks who will still be throwing them the ball this season. They are my 1-2. DeAndre Hopkins put up 111 receptions, 1,521 yards, and 11 touchdowns with garbage throwing him passes last season. He overcame poor quarterback play with immense talent and 192 targets. While anyone would be an improvement at quarterback, Brock Osweiler has a big arm that should make Hopkins even better. Give me Hopkins at 3. Odell Beckham Jr. showed maturity issues last season (e.g. fist fight with cornerback Josh Norman). Nevertheless, he produced 96 receptions, 1,450 yards, and 13 touchdowns. I also expect him to learn from his mistakes and act more professionally on and off the field. He received so much attention so quickly in New York. It was obviously overwhelming. Regardless, he produces which is the key takeaway for fantasy football. Obviously, he has an established star quarterback and been working with him his first two seasons. He does not get as many targets as the other top 4 receivers (about 30-40 less) so I have him slotted in at 4. A.J. Green has as much talent as any receiver. However, the Bengals scaled back the passing attack to prevent quarterback Andy Dalton from making mistakes. Although Dalton caps his fantasy ceiling, Green consistently puts up 1,300 yards and double digit touchdowns. Dez Bryant suffered a broken foot last season. Nevertheless, he is an elite receiver. He plays with a star quarterback. Like Green, he has less targets than the other elite wideouts. Dallas has a lot of weapons. When healthy, Bryant is good for 1,300 yards. In addition, he caught 12, 13, and 16 touchdowns each season before his injury shortened 2015. Allen Robinson busted out last year with 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. While he may not be able to duplicate the touchdowns, I expect him to replicate the yards and double digit touchdowns. He plays in a young, high powered offense and has built chemistry with a good, young quarterback in Blake Bortles. He will maintain Tier 1 status and could move up the receiver rankings.

I would be thrilled to have Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, or Odell Beckham Jr. to start my team. I endorse those 4 as the top 4 picks in every draft. I would also be happy with A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, and Allen Robinson in the second half of the first half and at least consider selecting them over the top running backs.

 

Tracy Porter, Mike Evans

Tier 2

Brandon Marshall            NYJ

Mike Evans         TB

Jordy Nelson      GB

Alshon Jeffery   CHI

T.Y. Hilton           IND

Brandin Cooks   NO

Amari Cooper    OAK

Keenan Allen     SD

Sammy Watkins               BUF

Demaryius Thomas         DEN

Jeremy Maclin   KC

Randall Cobb     GB

Eric Decker         NYJ

Larry Fitzgerald  ARI

Michael Floyd    ARI

Tier 2 wide receivers are a combination of Tier 1 ability who have a discount factor, solid 1,000 and 6 touchdown caliber receivers whose value will fluctuate based on TD “luck”, and receivers who fit both categories. Brandon Marshall put up Tier 1 stats last season. He and Eric Decker also have great chemistry with quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, Marshall is getting up there in age at 32. I have had bad history drafting receivers over 30. I also expect his targets to decrease slightly with the addition of Matt Forte. For these reasons, I see regression in his stats. Mike Evans is on the verge of completely breaking out. His 3 touchdowns last year were a little low. As of now, he falls under the 1,000 yards/ 6 TD type receiver who needs some more touchdowns. However, he also fits the mold of a young receiver who can bust out into a Tier 1 caliber wide receiver. He lost weight in the offseason and is entering his second season playing with up and coming quarterback, Jameis Winston. The signs are there for a total breakout. Jordy Nelson is a Tier 1 caliber wide receiver who got hurt in preseason last year and missed the entire season. However, he also dips into 1,000 yard/ 6 TD mold. A lot of his value has fluctuated greatly with touchdown totals that gone up and down depending on the season. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league and he spreads it around to all his weapons. Nelson is still a tremendous receiver but I would take the other top receivers over him. As of now, I consider Alshon Jeffrey as a 1,000 yards/ 6 TD type player. He also missed 7 games last year. However, Brandon Marshall is no longer on the team so he has a chance to be a lower level Tier 1 wide receiver. He missed the chance to prove it last season due to injury. He gets another chance in 2016.

T.Y. Hilton is another breakout candidate. Of course, playing with Andrew Luck is a major plus. However, he has primarily been a deep threat reliant on touchdowns as his primary source for providing value. I would draft him at an opportune time as a WR2 with upside but I would not reach on him. Similarly, Brandin Cooks is a breakout player. However, the Saints and Drew Brees love to spread it around. As such, I also consider Cooks 1,000 yards/ 6 touchdown type receiver for now. Amari Cooper put up 1,070 yards and 6 touchdowns in his rookie season. However, I expect him to improve his second season as he continues to build chemistry with up and coming quarterback, Derek Carr. Cooper also had plantar fasciitis last season. He is the real deal and I expect Tier 1 production soon. Keenan Allen is a Tier 1 receiver when he plays. Unfortunately, he only played in 8 games last season. If he stays healthy, he has all 4 key criteria to be elite and produced as such in half a season last year. Sammy Watkins is another young receiver with Tier 1 potential. He has been a deep threat specialist early in his career like T.Y. Hilton. He needs consistent quarterback play and more targets. Tyrod Taylor is a breakout candidate at quarterback. If he breaks out, Watkins should break out with him. Regardless, 1,000 yards/ 6 TDs is Watkins’s floor. Demaryius Thomas should be a Tier 1 wide receiver. Unfortunately, he plays with mediocre quarterbacks. Despite an ineffective Peyton Manning then switching to Brock Osweiler during the regular season, Thomas still put up 105 receptions, 1,304 yards, and 6 TDs. He will still get his numbers despite the quarterback but he peaks as a solid WR2 until the Broncos develop their next great, young quarterback. Nevertheless, he offers too much value to pass up if you start seeing him slide in your draft.

Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, and Michael Floyd fall under the category of 1,000 yards/ 6 TDs. They are a bit boring as draft picks but provide a lot of solid WR2 value. I prefer Decker among this group because he has been good for double digit touchdowns when he plays with a good quarterback. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has returned to the Jets and Decker has great chemistry with him, I expect 1,000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns for Decker.

The FantasyPros.com rankings are solid for this tier. I personally would move Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins, and Demaryius Thomas right next to or just under Jordy Nelson.

 

Golden Tate, Darian Stewart

Tier 3

Doug Baldwin    SEA        WR

Jarvis Landry      MIA       WR

Donte Moncrief IND        WR

Golden Tate       DET        WR

Julian Edelman  NE          WR

Kelvin Benjamin               CAR       WR

Jordan Matthews            PHI         WR

Emmanuel Sanders         DEN       WR

Allen Hurns         JAC        WR

John Brown        ARI         WR

Michael Crabtree             OAK       WR

Sterling Shepard              NYG       WR

Tier 3s are basically 1,000 yards/ 6 TD potential type receivers. They could be excellent WR2s but it is not a given. Baldwin finally crossed the 1,000 yard plateau last season and increased his touchdowns from 3 to 14. Obviously, I do not expect him to duplicate the TDs. If he duplicates the yardage again, I would put him at the back end of Tier 2 next year. Jarvis Landry has steadily increased his production in his first two seasons. He could be a solid WR2 or low end WR1 this year. If Ryan Tannehill ever takes a great leap forward, Landry would be the primary beneficiary. Donte Mocrief has huge upside and plays with Andrew Luck. Based on the difference in ADP, he may be a better value pick than his teammate T.Y. Hilton. I expect Golden Tate to have a big season as a strong WR2 and potential low end WR1 after Calvin Johnson’s retirement. When Johnson missed significant time in 2015, Tate put up 1,331 yards. Julian Edelman is a huge injury risk but offers great upside as Jimmy Garropolo and Tom Brady’s safety net underneath. Like Edelman, Kelvin Benjamin is a significant injury risk with potential for great reward. He was great in his rookie season with Cam Newton. He may struggle early as he comes off injury and tries to rebuild chemistry with Newton. However, he has tremendous shear physical talent unlike a player like Edelman. In a dynasty league, I would be all over Benjamin.

Jordan Matthews has caught 8 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons and is trending upwards. He does not have the highest ceiling but he could be an excellent WR2. Emmanuel Sanders still had solid stats playing with a diminished Peyton Manning then Brock Osweiler. However, he is a difficult call with the Broncos’ current quarterback mess. Demaryius Thomas will still get his numbers as the number 1. I am not sure the same can be said about Sanders as the number 2. Poor quarterback play tends to affect the second receiver more dramatically. Allen Hurns has good upside in an explosive offense. I would actually consider sliding him up to Tier 2 now. John Brown has one of the highest floors in this tier because he is sure production in the Cardinals’ high scoring offense. However, his ceiling is capped playing alongside so many weapons. Michael Crabtree offers good WR2 production while playing with an improving David Carr. He is a post hype player and is a boring pick but offers sure value. Sterling Shepard has been shooting up draft boards since he has been getting a lot of hype in the preseason. His teammate, Odell Beckham Jr., has also sang his praises. However, there is a difference between making a big impact in the actual game (e.g. making big catches in key situations and having a few big games when teams overplay against Beckham) and fantasy value. For me, I am skeptical that Shepard will get enough targets to be a fantasy stud his rookie season. Considering how much his ADP has skyrocketed, he may be too rich for my blood.

Again, FantasyPros.com has a solid order for this tier. I personally like Golden Tate, Allen Hurns, Kelvin Benjamin, and Donte Moncrief at the top of this tier but all the players have pretty much the same risk profile. As such, their rankings are more about personal preference.

 

Kevin White

Tier 4

Tyler Lockett      SEA

DeSean Jackson               WAS

Marvin Jones     DET

Travis Benjamin               SD

Devante Parker MIA

Torrey Smith      SF

Kevin White       CHI

Willie Snead       NO

Corey Coleman CLE

Kamar Aiken      BAL

Vincent Jackson               TB

Devin Funchess CAR

Sammie Coates PIT

Stefon Diggs       MIN

Michael Thomas              NO

Mohamed Sanu               ATL

Markus Wheaton            PIT

Tavon Austin     LA

Steve Smith        BAL

Rishard Matthews           TEN

Phillip Dorsett    IND

Laquon Treadwell            MIN

Mike Wallace     BAL

Pierre Garcon    WAS

Terrance Williams            DAL

Tyler Boyd          CIN

Tier 4 are legitimate sleepers. You are looking for flex value to cover bye weeks and injuries. If you get lucky, you might get more. Tyler Lockett is nothing special. He is a good flex play on certain matchups. Desean Jackson is older and only has modest upside now. Marvin Jones is a good value pick in a pass heavy Lions offense but he does not have a high ceiling. Travis Benjamin is a decent sleeper pick. He produced useable, fantasy stats even though he played on the Browns. Playing with Philip Rivers in San Diego is a dramatic improvement for him at the quarterback position. Nevertheless, I am not going to go crazy about him. The Chargers and Rivers spread out the ball a lot. Devante Parker has potential but he is injury prone. I would avoid Torrey Smith altogether. He has been a bit of a one trick pony with the deep ball in his career. Blaine Gabbert does not throw a good deep ball. Smith would be more useful if Colin Kaepernick gets in as quarterback but he would still not be that good. Kevin White probably has the most upside in this tier. He is a high first round draft pick and Jay Cutler can get him the ball in Chicago. Nevertheless, he missed all of last season. As such, he should be viewed as a rookie who has a lot to prove. He is much more valuable in a dynasty league.

Willie Snead has upside with Drew Brees as his quarterback but he is nothing special. Corey Coleman has upside as a first round pick but he needs RGIII to revive his career in Cleveland. It is not impossible but I am not counting on it. Kamar Aiken is a solid sleeper with sneaky upside depending on how the Ravens receiving core shakes out. Vincent Jackson is getting older and his role is being reduced. Jameis Winston will improve so Jackson could get some solid production out of the slot. He may be a good gamble late in the draft. Devin Funchess is getting some preseason hype pushing Kelvin Benjamin as Cam Netwon’s primary receiver. Nevertheless, I do not see a high ceiling with Funchess. He is a decent sleeper pick late though. If Martavis Bryant did not get suspended for the whole season, he would be a breakout candidate as the WR2 in Pittsburgh. Instead, he could not stay away from substance abuse and the Steelers look to Sammie Coates and Markus Wheaton. Eventually, a young receiver will emerge. It does not appear to be Coates who looks sloppy. As such, Wheaton is your sleeper pick by default.

Stefon Diggs has some value as a post hype sleeper. He is worth a gamble but the Vikings are a run first team and Teddy Bridgewater will never light it up in the air. Michael Thomas has upside as a second round pick playing in the Saints offense. However, I have trouble trusting a rookie on the Saints since they spread the ball too much. Mohamad Sanu has limited upside but he is a WR2 for Matt Ryan on the Falcons. Tavon Austin has potential but I am going to avoid the Rams even if they play in Los Angeles now. Steve Smith Sr. is older and coming off significant injury. However, he has heart and a will to produce so I would grab him late in the draft if I can. Rishard Matthews is a solid sleeper as Marcus Mariotta’s number one receiver in Tennesee. Phillip Dorsett has some potential as a second year, former first round pick playing with Andrew Luck on the Colts. He has also been named the Colts most improved player. He is definitely worthy of being a sleeper. However, he is not worth a pick for me because T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are going to eat up the targets. Keep an eye on Dorsett though if there is an injury. Laquon Treadwell is a first round pick. As such, he has potential. Unfortunately, he plays on the Vikings with Bridgewater so he has limited upside for fantasy purposes. Mike Wallace and Pierre Garcon are “has beens”. Terrance Williams has potential and could have a big year at some point with Tony Romo as his quarterback. However, he is difficult to trust and I doubt he gets enough targets with Bryant, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jason Witten on his team. The Cowboys want to run heavily anyway. When they throw it, it will usually go to Bryant for the big play or Witten for the check down. Tyler Boyd is a second round pick who will be the slot or potentially WR2 for the Bengals. However, they do not want to air it out so Boyd’s fantasy value is limited.

In terms of sleepers, I like  Marcus Wheaton, Kevin White, Travis Benjamin, Rishard Matthews, Kamar Aiken, Devin Funchess, and Stefon Diggs in that order. I also like Vincent Jackson and Steve Smith Jr. very late in the draft to try to extract some value from the veterans before they call it a career.

 

Josh Gordon

Josh Gordon

A name to keep in mind is Josh Gordon. He is so complicated that I need to dedicate a section just for him. He has top 5 receiver talent and has put up elite numbers before as a wide receiver. However, he has just not been able to stay away from marijuana and has not played in a long time. The situation in Cleveland is also not ideal. It is difficult to guess what Gordon will do. Another substance abuse suspension is always a consideration for him at this point. However, fantasy players will reach for him. Just on talent alone, I could see him being picked among the Tier 2 receivers. He makes for a much more fascinating risk/ reward play in Tier 3.

 

For other positions, please go to:

Quarterbacks: /2016/08/23/fantasy-football-2016-quarterbacks/

Running backs: /2016/08/24/fantasy-football-2016-running-backs/

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses: /2016/08/26/fantasy-football-2016-tight-ends-kickers-and-defenses/

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies. Patrick is also a passionate foodie. He is Yelp Elite for three years in a row and shares his great finds in New York and his travels.

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