Fantasy Football 2016: Running Backs

The game of football has changed drastically in the last decade. Due to a desire to increase scoring in the game, which the popularity of fantasy football has fueled, the NFL changed the rules so the game is much more passing friendly. Accordingly, the importance and statistics for wide receivers have increased while the roles and status of running backs have dramatically declined. While drafting as many running backs as possible early in fantasy drafts were all the rage when I started playing in the early 2000s, the trend has completely reversed in recent years. The transition is complete. When I see the top ranked fantasy players for this season, the top receivers are ranked higher than the best running backs. Running backs have a lot going against them in today’s NFL. As mentioned before, the league is more pass oriented now. A back needs to be at least a good receiver out of the backfield to play most downs in a pass happy offense. The days of a back just being a pure runner with carries are pretty much over. Next, running backs generally have short shelf lives anyway: 4-5 years in their prime. Finally, there are a lot of running back committees today. It is another factor that prevents backs from generating elite fantasy value.

Nevertheless, a cowbell running back, who provides top fantasy value via running and catching the ball, may be more valuable now than ever because there are so few of them. It is simple supply and demand. From my calculations, there may only be a handful of them with that potential this season. Moreover, there is not a single running back in the league for who I cannot name at least one significant negative consideration. For my first round pick and other high round picks, I generally prefer to draft players who I consider to represent my best chance for elite production. For these reasons, I agree with the general consensus to draft the top receivers over the top running backs. Of course, drafting a top back is still a very sound strategy. If you hit and he produces like you expect, the reward of featuring an elite fantasy running back in your lineup can be game changing.

Now, let me go through the tiers based on FantasyPros.com’s rankings.

 

Tier 1

RB          Team

Todd Gurley       LA

David Johnson   ARI

Adrian Peterson               MIN

Ezekiel Elliott      DAL

Lamar Miller       HOU

Except for one back who has dropped due to a 3 game suspension, these top 5 ranked backs are your best chance at featuring an elite fantasy running back on your team. In the middle of last season, I was ready to declare Todd Gurley the top pick of 2016 Fantasy Football drafts. He looked like the next Adrian Peterson. However, he slowed significantly to finish the season. 1,106 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns is a fine rookie season but it is actually a disappointment after how great he started the first 5 games of his career. Like Peterson, Gurley is not a very good receiver either. Of course, Gurley is still a physical freak. Unfortunately, his team is not very good. He is playing with a rookie quarterback and without a lot of extra help at the other skill positions. He is worthy of being a high draft pick based on talent and the flashes of domination he displayed last season but I would not take him at his Average Draft Position (ADP). David Johnson is a candidate to be the breakout fantasy superstar this season. The second year back combines his rushing ability with his elite pass catching out of the backfield. He is drawing comparisons to Marshall Faulk. His 581 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on only 125 rushes and 457 receiving yards with 4 touchdowns are a glimpse of his future. As he becomes the featured running back in a loaded Bruce Arians’s Cardinals offense this year, he should see those solid numbers spike. Nevertheless, the Cardinals will not overuse him. They still have Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington to manage Johnson’s workload, which limits his fantasy upside a bit. Of course, Johnson also needs to prove he can be the feature back over a full season. Nevertheless, his upside justifies his high draft position.

After only playing 1 game due to the domestic abuse issues in 2015 [the only season I drafted him], Adrian Peterson was a top fantasy back again in 2016. He has shown no signs of slowing down. Although you hate the reason he was suspended in 2015, it may actually help him prolong his career because he got to save his body from a season of beating and rested for a year. The only concern with Peterson on the field is his age, 31. Running backs just do not continue their dominance after 30. In recent memory, Curtis Martin had the other one big season for a star running back after turning 30. Thomas Jones was also good after 30 but he did not take carry the ball heavily in his 20s because he emerged late. Father Time is undefeated and will catch up to Peterson at some point. At this point, you can ride him until it happens. If you have worries, then you can go with one of the younger backs. The expectations for Ezekiel Elliott are sky high. He was an absolute monster at Ohio State. He dominated the college football playoffs two seasons ago and carried his team to the National Championship. A significant reason Ohio State did not repeat is that they inexplicably did not give the ball to Elliot enough in the game they lost to Michigan and it kept it out of the four team playoff. Elliott has the abilities to be the perfect fantasy running back. He is a phenomenal runner and pass catcher. Of course, he will also be running behind the best offensive line in the sport with talented skill position players around him that includes receiver Dez Bryant and quarterback Tony Romo. The Cowboys will try to duplicate the dominance they had two seasons ago with Romo, Bryant, DeMarco Murray, and their line with Elliott replacing Murray. The only real negative to consider is that he is a rookie. Until a player proves it in the NFL, it is always a question mark. However, I would take the leap of faith with Elliott. He has everything you would want going from him for fantasy greatness. On the other hand, Lamar Miller requires a little more leap of faith. He never broke out in Miami although he might have been misused. However, they are raving about him in Houston and the Texans have a history of featuring top backs. Furthermore, opposing defenses will be primarily honed in on DeAndre Hopkins. Miller makes for a great pick late in the first round or early in the second round.

Personally, I prefer Ezekiel Elliott on the top of this tier. I am that high on him and the Cowboys offensive line. Then, I would go with David Johnson or Adrian Peterson based on whether I prefer upside and youth or a track record of top production. Next, Gurley and Miller are an interesting debate for me. Do I take the back with special talent but mediocre help or the one who has potential and in a much better situation? At worst, Gurley is 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. Miller could be amazing but he has much more bust factor. As a result, Gurley should be higher. A case could be made for Elliott, Johnson, Peterson, or Gurley as the first back selected. Miller provides the most risk. However, I would probably take one of the top receivers over every one of these backs anyway.

 

Tier 2

Jamaal Charles  KC

Mark Ingram      NO

Devonta Freeman            ATL

Le’Veon Bell       PIT

LeSean McCoy  BUF

Doug Martin      TB

C.J. Anderson    DEN

Eddie Lacy          GB

Latavius Murray               OAK

Carlos Hyde        SF

Matt Forte          NYJ

Jonathan Stewart            CAR

Jeremy Hill          CIN

Ryan Mathews  PHI

DeMarco Murray             TEN

Frank Gore         IND

Thomas Rawls   SEA

Arian Foster        MIA

Giovani Bernard               CIN

Matt Jones         WAS

Dion Lewis          NE (OUT due to injury)

Rashad Jennings              NYG

I am going to skip straight to Le’Veon Bell. He has a 3 game suspension but he is still a Tier 1 running back in my opinion. Unless you believe he is a Josh Gordon risk (will fail another substance abuse test and get another suspension), he is probably still the most complete back in the NFL and the perfect fantasy football back who plays in one of the most high powered offenses in the league. He is also coming off a serious injury last season but I expect him to produce as soon as he returns. While there should be a discount on him, he should still go late in the first round. When he plays, he could have the highest fantasy points per game of all the running backs. The rest of Tier 2 have similar risk profiles. They are generally 1,000 to 1,300 running backs who provide 6-8 touchdowns. Their value tends to be determined on touchdown “luck” (e.g. a back scores an unusual low amount of 2-4 or another back scores over 10). Scanning through the list, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Frank Gore, and Arian Foster are stars at the back end of their careers. Maybe, they can turn the clock one more season and put up huge numbers but you should only expect RB2 production. Do not reach because of their names. Charles and Forte should still be productive and good end of 2^nd round and 3^rd round picks. McCoy is tempting but I personally think he had too many carries and touches with the Eagles. Gore is a useful flex but I would try to avoid drafting him unless he fell really far in a draft. Arian Foster just looks done. He had a good season two years ago but backs regress fast when the steep declines begin.

After Le’Veon Bell, Doug Martin excites me most in this tier. He had a fine season last year and plays on an up and coming offense. If he could replicate his production from last season and add 4-5 touchdowns, he would be Tier 1. I am also high on Latavius Murray. He was a breakout candidate last year. While he did not set the world on fire, he was solid and should improve this year. He also plays on an up and coming offense. Devonta Freeman is another back I really like. He had a stellar fantasy season last year. However, the Falcons plan on reducing his workload to keep him fresher. As such, he will probably be overdrafted in leagues this year based on last year’s stats. Draft him to be a RB2 and not a high upside RB1. Mark Ingram is a player who has a lot of name value in a high scoring Saints offense. He is a good player but he is nothing special in fantasy because he just does not get enough touches to be a fantasy stud. He also misses a lot of games every year. He is a useful piece in the 6^th or 7^th round but I have fallen into the trap of reaching higher for him enough times. He is definitely overrated in the rankings.

Potential breakout stars this season are C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Thomas Rawls and Matt Jones. Anderson, Hyde, and Hill have been candidates before. Consequently, it demonstrates a lot of bust potential when you are trying to draft based on a projected breakout. As such, I would target these players in the 5^th or 6^th round, late 4^th at the earliest. Anderson was a bust for me last year but he came on in the playoffs. The Broncos are definitely going to run the ball heavy this year with their issues at the quarterback position. If Anderson busts against this year, I am done with him. Hyde has the highest potential in the group because of Chip Kelly’s system. Hill is definitely the more talented back in Cincinnati. He was disappointing last season but still rushed for 11 touchdowns. I would not be quick to bury him on draft charts because he flopped his sophomore season. If he does disappoint again, Giovanni Bernard becomes useful based on volume. Rawls looked great when Marshawn Lynch was out last year. The Seahawks will definitely continue to run the ball. Christine Michael has been extremely productive in preseason as the second back but Rawls should start and get heavy use. Matt Jones is nothing special but he is in line to get a lot of work for the Redskins. A couple of comeback candidates are Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray. Lacy has Tier 1 talent. It is so frustrating to watch him waste it by being out of shape. He looks sharp in the preseason but he will be in a timeshare with James Starks, who the Packers paid good money to backup and split carriers. DeMarco Murray was completely misused in Philadelphia. I expect the Titans to use him primarily as a north and south runner. Naturally, do not expect him to put up the numbers he produced behind the great Cowboys offensive line but he should be a productive RB2. Jonathan Stewart and Rashad Jennings are veteran, productive backs. They are good value picks. In terms of Jennings, he should be the primary back for an improved Giants team but he does have a tendency to get hurt a lot. Ryan Matthews is another veteran back. He is the starter but I do not have too much faith in him. I would only draft him if he was the last back in this tier remaining and I wanted to play the numbers game and add him to my pool of backs.

Based on the analysis above, I would completely rearrange this tier. Le’Veon Bell and Doug Martin would be at the top. Latavius Murray would be next. Then, I would either go with Devonta Freeman if I wanted youth or go with the older backs I believe in (Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, and maybe LeSean McCoy depending on my mood). Next, you can draft based on preference: productive veterans (Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, Rashad Jennings) breakout candidates (C.J. Anderson, Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, Thomas Rawls and Matt Jones), or rebound candidates (Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray). Breakout candidates are usually the sexier picks because you can brag to your friends that you knew a star would breakout. Productive veterans are kind of boring. If you are feeling conservative, they are a safe place to land. Comeback players are a good medium in between the two. As the pool is drained and you get to the end, you may also just want to draft whoever is left to add to your pool of backs.

 

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead           SD

Melvin Gordon  SD

Duke Johnson    CLE

Jeremy Langford              CHI

Ameer Abdullah               DET

Chris Ivory          JAC

Isaiah Crowell    CLE

Charles Sims       TB

Bilal Powell         NYJ

LeGarrette Blount            NE

T.J. Yeldon          JAC

Justin Forsett     BAL

Derrick Henry     TEN

Shane Vereen    NYG

James Starks      GB

DeAngelo Williams          PIT

Darren Sproles   PHI

Tevin Coleman  ATL

Jay Ajayi              MIA

Tier 3 has some useful players at the flex position but you generally need to get lucky as they are lotto tickets. Jeremy Langford is the biggest name on this list. I expect his draft position to move up. He has talent and he should get plenty of carries in Chicago. For me, he is in Tier 2 under breakout candidates. Danny Woodhead is an example of a useful back. Other backs that fall into this category are Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, LeGarrette Blount, T.J. Yeldon, Shane Vereen, James Starks, and Darren Sproles. Of this group, maybe Ivory or Yeldon breaks away from the other and becomes the feature back in a high scoring Jacksonville offense. I doubt it though. Although Blount is useful, a Patriots back is really frustrating. Blount could get 0 carries or rush for 100 yards. Bill Belichick is totally secretive and you will be guessing. As for the rest of the field, I will rapid fire through. Melvin Gordon was an absolute bust his rookie season and he looks like more of the same in the preseason. The Cleveland situation is a mess as usual (Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, etc.) I guess Duke Johnson is your best bet but who knows. I would avoid trying to speculate the Browns situation unless you have to. Ameer Abdullah is talented but the Lions backfield definitely looks like a sure committee. Charles Sims is a talented player but he serves as more of a handcuff. Justin Forsett is in a committee in Baltimore. He is the most established back but he does not look good and I do not trust him. Derrick Henry is a big back from Alabama with upside but DeMarco Murray is standing in his way. DeAngelo Williams should be very useful the first three weeks then serve as Le’Veon Bell’s handcuff. Tevin Coleman has a lot of talent but fumbles too much. Jay Ajayi is a good sleeper pick. He has a lot of upside and could come into play if Foster gets hurt or is ineffective.

Jeremy Langford is the name that pops out in this tier. He should be ranked higher but I also think fantasy players already have him higher. Jay Ajayi is the next most interesting name because I do not think Arian Foster has much left in the tank. The remaining field should be useful. They can also become much more important based on injury or emerging on a committee so track their names up to the draft and during the season.

 

Tier 4

Jordan Howard  CHI

Theo Riddick      DET

C.J. Prosise         SEA

DeAndre Washington     OAK

Jerick McKinnon              MIN

Devontae Booker            DEN

Tim Hightower   NO

Kenneth Dixon  BAL

Chris Thompson               WAS

Paul Perkins       NYG

Chris Johnson    ARI

Javorius Allen    BAL

Darren McFadden           DAL

Spencer Ware    KC

Shaun Draughn SF

Wendell Smallwood        PHI

Terrance West   BAL

Josh Ferguson    IND

Reggie Bush       BUF

Christine Michael SEA

Tier 4 is primarily handcuffs and grasping for straws. The handcuffs are DeAndre Washington, Jerick McKinnon, Devontae Booker, Tim Hightower, Chris Thompson, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Spencer Ware, Shane Draughn, Reggie Bush, and Christine Michael. Jerick McKinnon is a freak athlete but he will not be a factor unless Adrian Peterson misses some games. Spencer Ware is a high upside handcuff. Jamaal Charles is older and has suffered some serious injuries in his career. Any significant regression or injury would open the door for Ware. Devontae Booker has become an interesting name. He has been impressive in preseason. If C.J. Anderson busts, which he has done before, Booker will be a sought after back. For this reason, he is one of the stronger handcuffs. Christine Michael has been a back of the future before. In his post hype career, he has emerged as a handcuff again and making noise in the preseason. The Baltimore committee is a mess. Kenneth Dixon, Javorius Allen, and Terrance West are in the committee with Justin Forsett. It is anyone’s guess who or if a back emerges. I will stay away from it. Theo Riddick and Reggie Bush are factors as flex options since they will be used in the pass game. Chris Johnson has some value as a flex in addition to being a handcuff. He produced 800+ yards rushing splitting carries in Arizona. However, his opportunities should come down a bit as the Cardinals will feature David Johnson more. The other players are just names to keep an eye on if any news develops. Of course, other names will emerge during the season due to opportunities caused by performance or injury.

 

For other positions, please see:

Quarterbacks: /2016/08/23/fantasy-football-2016-quarterbacks/

Receivers: /2016/08/25/fantasy-football-2016-wide-receivers/

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses: /2016/08/26/fantasy-football-2016-tight-ends-kickers-and-defenses/

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