2016 French Open: Murguruza Officially Arrives, Djokovic Continues Historic Run

2016 French Open: Murguruza Officially Arrives, Djokovic Continues Historic Run

Garbiñe Murguruza Defeats Serena Williams 7-5, 6-4 in Straight Sets to Capture the French Open and 1st Career Major

When Roberta Vinci upset Serena Williams in the U.S. Open to prevent the Calendar Slam and Serena tying Stefi Graf at 22 Career Grand Slams, I was in complete shock especially after Serena steamrolled her in the first set. However, Serena definitely had the weight of the world on her shoulders with the pressure of completing the Calendar Slam to match Graf’s Calendar Slam and career 22 Grand Slams. In addition, Vinci played the match of her life. When Serena lost in this year’s Australian Open Final, I was surprised but Angelique Kerber also played the match of her life and had the power and talent to outhit Serena for a match. It happens and is not reasonable to expect Serena to win every final. On the other hand, I was not at all surprised that Garbiñe Murguruza defeated Serena in the French Open Final. In fact, I expected it. Murguruza first appeared on the big stage when she upset and dominated Serena 2 years ago in the second round of the French Open. Last year, she announced her arrival as a future star when she made an unexpected run to the Wimbledon Final on her worse surface, grass. Of course, all the stories then were about Serena’s quest at the Calendar Slam. However, Murguruza played great in the Final. During that match, she flashed the talent and competitiveness that convinced me that she could be the next great star in woman’s tennis. Before this year, I circled the French Open as the first Major that Murguruza would win (/2016/01/04/predicting-top-sports-headlines-in-2016/). As a Spanish player, she grew up playing on clay courts. It is a major reason Rafael Nadal is the “King of Clay”. Roland Garros was also the place where we first heard her name. As such, I thought it was the most logical place for her to break through and win her first Major.

There were a number of factors that led me to expect Murguruza to win. First, Murguruza got better and better as she advanced in this year’s French Open and I knew Serena would need her “A” Game. Next, she has already faced Serena in a Grand Slam Final and played well. Moreover, she has already beat Serena at Roland Garros. Accordingly, she would not be intimidated. Next, Serena is dealing with a nagging injury. In addition, she had to play four straight days in a row due to a rainout earlier in the week. Naturally, a 22 year old will surely recover better than a 34 year old. Regardless, Serena did not lose this match. She was just outplayed and outhit by Murguruza. While Serena did not have her A game, she has certainly won Grand Slam Finals in the past playing worse. Even when Serena had her serve uncharacteristically broken multiple times, she also fought back and broke Murguruza a few times. Murguruza won this match because she could handle Serena’s power. She displayed great speed and court coverage, played aggressively, and returned Serena’s serves and volleys with power. It was the best I have seen a player return and defend Serena in years. Moreover, it is definitely no fluke. Murguruza looks prime to be a force in women’s tennis. She will continue to improve and is far from peaking. She does not even have a dominant service game yet but I think she has the power to develop it. She may finally be the player that gives Serena a rival and prevents her from cruising past Stefi Graf and Margaret Court in career Grand Slams.

Serena is playing magnificently on borrowed time. It is unbelievable that she has extended her prime and continued to win Grand Slams at a superb rate well past the age, 29, other tennis greats see a steep decline in performance and never reach the peak accomplishments in their careers again. Due to her age, it would not be shocking at all if she saw a steep decline at any time now. On the other hand, any definitive statements, that Father Time is catching up to her, is still very premature. She is a victim of her own success. The fact that she completed a second Serena Slam (holding all four Grand Slam at the same time) has set expectations impossibly high for her. Accordingly, her age is just a convenient reason and easy headline to write to satisfy the indulgences of the 24 hour news cycle when she does not win a Major. Nevertheless, she was far from unbeatable during the recent Serena Slam. There was always a match or two each tournament when she was in serious danger of losing but dug deep with her mental toughness and will to pull a Houdini escape act. As a result, losing in the semi-finals then finals twice in the last three Grand Slams does not really alarm me that she is facing an immediate steep decline in performance. In 2014, she lost in the 4th round, 2nd round, and 3rd round of the first three Grand Slams in that year which included the second round beatdown by Murguruza in the French Open. That stretch felt a lot more like the end of her reign than now. Then, she proceeded to win the next four Grand Slams and almost completed the Calendar Slam. We should just sit back and wait to see when Serena tells us her run is over. Then, we can go back and try to determine when her career started to take a real dip. For me, this French Open is all about Murguraza officially arriving as a force to be reckoned with in women’s tennis.

Novak Djokovic Defeats Andy Murray in 4 Sets 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 to complete the Career Slam and on pace for the Golden Calendar Slam

novak french

Without Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer standing in Novak Djokovic’s way in last year’s French Open Final, I thought for sure that Djokovic would win and complete the Career Grand Slam. Stan Wawrinka had other plans and stunningly upset Djokovic and made him wait another year for a chance at the French Open championship. While Wawrinka played great and had won a Grand Slam before, Djokovic was visibly upset and heartbroken after the match. Nerves and the pressure of completing the Career Grand Slam definitely played a factor in the upset. This year’s French Open broke even better for Djokovic. Federer had to withdraw before the tournament and Nadal withdrew early in the tournament due to injuries. Djokovic cruised through the tournament and got to the Finals against Andy Murray, a player he has dominated head to head. From my perspective, the Final seemed like a formality for Djokovic. Nerves would be the only thing that could keep him from winning this year’s French Open Final. After he dropped the first set, it appeared like he could let the pressure get to him again. However, he settled down and completely annihilated Murray the rest of the match. Djokovic has won six of the last eight Grand Slams, including four in a row, and playing the best tennis in his career. He is only the third male player to hold all four Grand Slam titles at the same time. Similar to the Serena Slams, it is a Djokovic Slam. More impressively, it is not a feat either Nadal or Federer have accomplished. Of course, Federer came close but the King of Clay, Nadal, thwarted him each time on the clay of the French Open. In addition, Djokovic now has a chance at the Golden Calendar Slam, winning all four Majors and the Olympic gold medal in the same year. If he pulls it off, it will be a huge boost to his legacy. In my opinion, it would immediately put him as the second best male player ever and on the path to unquestionably surpassing Federer as the greatest male tennis player ever. Of course, it is easier said than done. The pressure will be immense and nearly impossible to handle. The odds are definitely against him pulling it off.

I also have to comment about the French Open runner up, Andy Murray. He has had a great career as a two time Grand Slam winner. His only crime is playing in the wrong era. As a player in the Golden Era of tennis, he has been blocked by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic. Those three players are arguably the best three male players of all time. Murray is now 2-8 in Grand Slam Finals, losing 3 times to Federer and 5 times to Djokovic. If he were playing in another era, it is not crazy to assume he would have won 5 or 6 of them and be considered one of the top ten players ever. Nevertheless, winning 2 Grand Slams and ending the long drought of years a British male had not won Wimbledon is a stellar career.

If Federer, Nadal, or Serena Williams [like we saw last year] held all for Grand Slams or on pace to complete a Calendar Slam; it would be a huge sports story. For Djokovic, he has dominated the sport with much less fanfare. I am as guilty as others for not appreciating Djokovic as much as I probably should. For me, it is not that I dislike Djokovic. He is actually very charismatic and charming in addition to his brilliance on the tennis court. I just love Federer so much that it is difficult for me to get excited about another player going after historic milestones. I feel like it is the same sentiment for most tennis fans. However, he is continuing to build his resume for being the greatest male tennis player ever and has shown no signs of slowing down. He already has a winning record against every player, which is something Federer cannot claim with his lopsided head to head losing record against Nadal and Djokovic recently earning an edge in the head to head against him. Of course, the big prize is the career Grand Slams. At 12 career Grand Slam championships, the prospect and talk of him possibly surpassing Federer’s 17 will be a story for the rest of his career. In my opinion, the odds are still against him. I addressed the probability after the Australian Open (/2016/02/01/kerber-djokovic-take-2016-australian-open-and-the-history-ahead/). I will quickly summarize points I made before. As noted in the telecast of the French Open Final, the age of 29 is a magical barrier when tennis players tend to decline significantly. Even though Djokovic has shown no signs of decline, it can happen very quickly. I saw no significant indications Federer was going to decline after turning 29 until it appeared to happen overnight. Djokovic did not win enough Grand Slams before the age of 29 (16 for Federer versus 12 for Djokovic) so he has to make it up at the back of his career. On the other hand, he does have the advantage of not having a Nadal in his prime or a younger version of himself coming into his prime to block him like Federer had.

I consider Federer the greatest player of all-time and he only won 1 Grand Slam after 29. Djokovic has already tied that by winning the French Open at age 29. However, he will need to outdo Federer 5-1 or 6-1 after the age of 29 to tie or beat Federer’s count [assuming Federer does not eek out one more to get to 18]. Federer aged gracefully and stayed in contention for Grand Slams by improving his serves and learning to end points quicker. Djokovic does not have that kind of serve. He is the greatest returner ever and demoralizes opponents with long rallies that include impossible returns. As such, I do not think he will or can go that route. After this year’s Australian Open, I did my analysis as a one to one comparison between Federer and Djokovic. However, I rethought about it and opened it up to the larger field. The player who aged the best and won the most [5 grand Slams] after age 29 was Andre Agassi. Agassi was arguably the greatest returner ever until Djokovic reached his current peak. Accordingly, it is possible that Djokovic matches Agassi’s late career success. If you look at other players who thrived after age 29, Laver won the Calendar Slam at the ages of 30 and 31. However, he did not win another Grand Slam afterwards. Jimmy Connors won 2 Grand Slams and remarkably reached the semi-finals of the 1991 US Open at age 39. Realistically, the ceiling for Djokovic after the age of 29 is 5. Since he has already won 1 after 29 with this French Open, it would suggest he has a max of 4 more which would put him at 16 and 1 behind Federer. Of the other hand, I would not say it is impossible. If he defies the odds and ties Federer, I would be willing to call him the unquestioned greatest male tennis player ever.

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.

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