Angelique Kerber upsets Serena Williams in the Finals 6-4, 3-6, 6-4

Serena was rolling heading into the Australian Open Final. It was one of her most dominant Grand Slam tournament performances in a while. She had not dropped a set, was not even losing that many points, and appeared to be getting better and better as the tournament progressed. She looked at the top of her game and even better than last year when she won the first three Majors. I watched her matches against Maria Sharapova and Agnieska Radwanska in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals. In the Quarterfinals, Sharapova played competitively in the first set before Serena completely dominated her in the second set and beat her rival for the 18^th consecutive time. Against Radwanska, Serena came out on fire and won the first set 6-0. Serena’s serves, returns, and passes were laser shots while Radwanska’s shots looked like slow motion. Radwanska won some games in the middle of the second set before Serena brushed her off. Serena was serving well, hitting crisp, and moving ridiculously great heading into the Finals. When she advances to the Semifinals of Grand Slams, she usually closes the deal and wins the tournament. Moreover, Kerber was playing in her first Grand Slam Final. Rightfully, the general consensus was that Kerber had no chance and Serena would win her 22^nd Grand Slam to tie Steffi Graf for the most in the Open Era.

However, Serena was clearly tense at the start of the Finals. There is no other tennis player in the world who is under the pressure Serena with her chase of history. During the 2015 US Open, she repeatedly said that she does not feel pressure. However, she admitted to Chris Evert that she felt a lot of pressure to tie Evert and Martina Navratilova at 18 Grand Slam titles after she won the 2014 US Open to do it. After clearing that hurdle, she won the first three Grand Slams of last year. During this Australian Open, she continued to say she has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The statement is somewhat true. Her place in history as one of the top 3 women’s tennis player is cemented with 21 Grand Slam wins. She is already arguably the greatest women’s player ever. She definitely features the greatest women’s serve of All-Time. Nevertheless, tying and passing Steffi Graf at 22 and Margaret Court at 24 Majors will give Serena a much stronger claim as the undisputed greatest female tennis player ever. It may even make her the greatest tennis player period, male or female. The pressure is real and it is only human that these historic milestones are in her mind. When someone is affected by pressure, muscles tense up and mechanics get out of whack. Serena showed both symptoms at the start of the Finals. She was not moving or hitting well at all as she dropped the first set.

Nevertheless, Serena has been notorious for starting slow in a match. She has dropped plenty of first sets before pulling it together and win going away. Once she is on a roll, she is usually a juggernaut. When she came back to win the second set 6-3, she appeared to have the momentum and her victory was back on script. Angelique Kerber had other ideas. She really had nothing to lose and could play loose because everyone had written her off. She also features a game with angling hits that can throw Serena off. In addition, she is left handed. It reminded me a little bit of Rafael Nadal and how he gives Roger Federer so much trouble. Obviously, it is not to that extent as Nadal has dominated Federer in their careers. Serena Williams is still, by far the best women’s player in the sport. If she plays her A game, she will win. Although Serena played her C game and opened the door with 46 errors, she has shown she can gut out wins with her mental toughness and will it on days she does not have it. There is usually at least one of those types of matches a champion needs to get through and survive to win the tournament. In my opinion, Kerber won the Finals more than Serena lost it. To be honest, I did not really follow Kerber during the tournament. However, she was almost eliminated in the first round. She did not drop another set en route to the finals, which included a match against a tough Victoria Azarenka. When Serena seemingly took control of the match in the second set, Kerber could have been steamrolled like other opponents Serena has played. Instead, she made a couple of marvelous drop shots on critical points in the third set. More impressively, she broke the greatest server of all time three times in the deciding set. The third break won the Championship. At 28, Kerber needed to play the tournament of her life and the match of her life in the Finals to capture her first career Grand Slam. She did both and deserves all the credit and congratulations.

Serena’s Pursuit of Steffi Graf and Margaret Court

Serena Williams and former tennis player Margaret Court with the Hopman Cup in Perth.

Even in defeat, the story is still about Serena’s pursuit of history. Coming into this Australian Open, I did not expect too much from Serena because she had a long layoff and was recovering from an injury after the US Open. However, she looked absolutely rejuvenated after a stressful 2015 in her attempt at the Calendar Grand Slam. She was completely dominant up to the finals. She showed no signs of slowing down physically. I am not going to look too much into this loss. I categorize as it as it happens. She is still a ridiculous 21-5 in Grand Slam Finals. It is unrealistic to think she can win them all. The player on the other side of the net is a pro and trying to win the match too. After this tournament, Kerber will be the number 2 ranked player in the sport. Serena’s loss to Roberta Vinci in the US Open Semifinals was much more shocking. It might have been the biggest upset in tennis history considering the stakes for Serena. She can also feel great about her overall performance in the tournament. She will certainly be the favorite going into the remaining Majors in 2016. Moreover, she was extremely gracious in defeat and happy for Kerber. As one of the great competitors ever, it was shocking to see how much Serena was smiling. It looked like she just won. A part of her is probably happy to see Kerber win her first career Grand Slam. Serena is very beloved and admired by most of the other women in the Women’s Tour. As a result, I think she is giving back the love when another player succeeds especially someone like Kerber who has waited till the age of 28 for it. However, I felt it was also Serena exhaling and having relief that she will not deal with the Calendar Slam drama again this year. While she will still have plenty of pressure from chasing Steffi Graf, I think she can just go out and play the Majors the rest of the year. Of course, it does not necessarily mean she win all or any of them.

Father Time is undefeated. Serena has already defied logic and nature by doing what she is doing at such an advanced age for a tennis player. She is still the best player in the Women’s Tour and it is not even close right now. To be realistic, her skills could deteriorate quickly at any time. It needs to be a factor when trying to assess whether she will reach Margaret Court’s 24 Grand Slams. On the other hand, there is currently no up and coming great talent who appears prime to dominate the sport. There is no Novak Djokovic, who is blocking Roger Federer from additional Grand Slam titles, in the women’s field. After she won the 2013 French Open, her 16^th Grand Slam; I thought she might get to 19 or 20 Majors before retiring. At that time, there were rumors that she would only play two more seasons. With Margaret Court in sight, I believe Serena’s competitiveness will drive her to play until she is no longer a top player. With a historic 2015, she blew right by my best case scenario. Nevertheless, 2015 is an aberration. It is rare for a player to win three Majors. Serena won two in 2013 and one in 2014. In my opinion, those results are much more realistic. Due to her age, I would also not project too much past the next two years. You also have to hope she stays healthy. After considering all these factors, I would be shocked if she does not find a way to squeak at least another Grand Slam to tie Steffi Graf. I think she has a good chance to get to 23 and pass Graf. She has a decent shot at 24 to tie Court. 25 to pass Court is probably when it begins to be unlikely. Graf is also the more important milestone because it is in the Open Era. Of course, Court is an All-Time Great. However, she won the Australian Open 11 times in an era when the top players did not trek Down Under for the tournament. Since Court is Australian, she was home and had a home court advantage with the crowd. Again, Serena has exceeded my wildest expectations already. I hope she keeps on doing it. Regardless, we will be watching and enjoying her greatness however long it may last.

Novak Djokovic Defeats Andy Murray 6-1, 7-5, 7-6; 11^th Career Grand Slam for Djokovic

Like Serena Williams, Novak Djokovic has dominated the sport in the last two years. He is clearly the best male tennis player in the sport right now and it is also not even close. He has been playing as well as anyone has ever played in that span. I agree with the assessment that he is the best returner of all time. His speed, flexibility, and length allow him unbelievable court coverage. As the analysts have noted over and over again, he is the best at turning defense into offense. From my observations, he is more intimidating returning the serve than when he serves. It is kind of a ridiculous thought in tennis. During the Australian Open, the one match he was off was against Gilles Simon in the fourth round. Despite committing 100 unforced errors and extended to five sets, Djokovic was never in real danger of losing that match. Watching the match, it was obvious that Simon did not have the game to win despite Djokovic not playing well. Besides that match, Djokovic only dropped a set in the tournament. He completely dominated Roger Federer and Andy Murray in the Semifinals and Finals respectively. In the Semifinals, Federer was on the path to the worst loss of his career after Djokovic annihilated him through the first two sets. Federer saved face by winning the third set before losing in four sets. Murray got blitzed in the first set. He fought and competed in the final two sets but was never really a threat to win the match.

Djokovic’s Chase of History

With Djokovic’s victory at the 2016 Australian Open, he has tied Rod Laver and Bjorn Borg for the fifth most career Grand Slams at 11. He trails Roy Emerson at 12, Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras at 14, and Roger Federer at 17. After beating Federer in the Semifinals, he now has a winning record against all the top players in his era: Fedrerer, Nadal, and Murray. In regards to Federer and Nadal, they are regarded as the best two players in history. With Djokovic’s current Grand slam total and record against the other greats, I definitely think he is already on the list of top 5 players of All-Time. I also have no problem if some people have them as their third best ever now. Of course, he is still in his prime and his career appears far from over. He will be adding on to his resume. Like his career to date, he will continue to chase Nadal and Federer. It begs to question how many he will win by the end of his career. Can he match Nadal’s 14? Is Federer’s 17 [assuming he does not add anymore] possible?

I also think it will be important for him to win at least one French Open. Nadal is the greatest clay court player of All-Time. Nevertheless, he won Grand Slams on all surfaces. He also has a gold medal in the Olympics for the Career Golden Slam. Federer is the second best clay court player in his era. He has been to five French Open Finals. It is tied for the third most Finals at the French Open. Of course, Nadal thwarted him in four of them. He is practically unbeatable at the French Open. A case can be made that Federer is the third best clay player of All-Time. Federer was so consistently great in his prime that he was able to take advantage of the one year that Nadal did not win tournament, 2009, until 2015. It was not easy. Federer was actually down 2 sets to 1 against Juan Martin del Potro in the Semifinals before winning the grueling five set match. It was Federer’s one chance to win the tournament without Nadal in his way and he pulled it off to Complete the Career Grand Slam. Djokovic has also ran into the Nadal buzz saw in the French Open Finals. In 2015, Djokovic actually beat Nadal in the Quarterfinals. More impressively, he broke Nadal’s will to compete. As a result, it was shocking when Djokovic lost in the Finals to Stan Wawrinka in four sets after winning the first set. Again, pressure is real. Djokovic was visibly upset after the loss because he wanted it so badly. For this reason, he has unfinished business at Roland Garros. If he accomplishes it and reaches 14 total Grand Slam victories, I think he can make a strong case as the greatest male tennis player of All-Time. He does not necessarily have to match or surpass Federer’s 17 because he does not have a losing record against any player. As we know, Federer has a lopsided losing record head to head against Nadal which is the only yet significant argument against Federer.

So how many Grand Slams can you expect from Djokovic before the end of his career? Besides Serena Williams, the age of 29 is certainly the magic threshold when tennis players drastically decline. It is relevant in the near future for Djokovic because he is turning 29 in May. It is certainly the case for male tennis players. That age holds true based on the performances of Federer and Nadal. Federer was still at the height of his power after winning the 2010 Australian Open, career Grand Slam number 16. At that time, he had just won 3 out of the last four Grand Slams and looked like the same old Federer. In 2010, he went on to lose in the quarterfinals of the French Open and Wimbledon to break his record breaking streak of 36 consecutive Semifinals in Grand Slams. Afterwards, he turned 29 in August of that year and has only won one Grand Slam, the 2012 Wimbledon, since then. If you look at Rafael Nadal, he turned 29 last June. However, he has shown significant deterioration in skills since turning 28 in 2014. He has not been past a quarterfinal since then and has not reached a quarterfinal since last year’s French Open. Nadal lost in the first round of this year’s Australian Open. However, he has a rough playing style and uses max effort compared to Federer’s seemingly smooth, effortless style. It put a huge strain on Nadal’s body. It is the reason he has dealt with significant injuries in his career. It is not a surprise that he is not aging well. As a result, it makes more sense to contemplate Djokovic’s aging process by comparing it to Federer’s.

How has Federer maintained his relevance and continued to stay in contention for Grand Slam titles? Again, he took a significant dip in skill in 2010. In 2011, he failed to win a Grand Slam and only made one Finals, the French Open. In 2012, he won Wimbledon and briefly regained the number 1 ranking. In 2013, he appeared to suffer another decline and I thought he was about to lose relevance. After losing in the second round of Wimbledon, I thought it was the beginning of the end. However, he was able to rededicate and reinvent himself to adjust to his diminished skills in 2012 and 2014. In 2014, he reached the Finals at Wimbledon. In 2015, he reached the Finals of Wimbledon and the US Open. Of course, he lost to Djokovic all three times. In the Semifinals of this Australian Open, he again lost to Djokovic. The key to Federer’s graceful aging is winning points faster. It has included serving better and coming to the net more. A dominant serve is also a major reason Serena Williams has maintained and prolonged her brilliance well past her projected prime. Similarly, Djokovic has significantly improved his serve. Both he and Federer serve at a top speed at 130 MPH. Serena’s top speed is just as fast. Think about that for a second. Even when Djokovic loses a step, he should still be able to get to more balls than Federer has at an advanced age because he has more flexibility and range with his wiry, lengthy body. Nevertheless, he will eventually need to take a page out of the Federer playbook and go to the net to end rallies earlier. Djokovic’s game took a huge step forward when he changed to a gluten free diet and got into ridiculous shape. Age affects stamina and mental focus. It will diminish that advantage he gained. Moreover, there will be a transition period when he needs to realize his skills have diminished, accept it, and adjust. Federer has went through the process twice already. Djokovic has the talent and build to age gracefully. However, it will still be very difficult.

Besides age, Djokovic’s past performance can be used in his future projection. 2011 was his breakthrough as an All-Time great. He won 3 Majors that year. He matched it by winning another 3 last year. Those seasons are special and very difficult to duplicate. He only won one Major each in between, from 2012-2014, in the middle of his prime. Although he is still in his prime, he is approaching the end of it as history has proven. If Djokovic wins three this year and three next year, he will be at 16. However, both would be incredibly special seasons. He would be accomplishing the feat in three consecutive seasons and four times overall. Federer has done it in three separate years but not three years in a row. It is not realistic. With the ages of 29 and 30 coming up, I think 4 Grand Slams (including this year’s Australian Open) over 2016 and 2017 is the optimistic projection. 3 over that span is in line with his career history and considers his age. 3 would give him 13 and already giving him one more Grand Slam title after the age of 29 than Federer has been able to achieve. Even if you assume 13 is a given, I think the most optimistic expectation is 1 or 2 more afterwards which puts him at 15. If I was setting an over/under on it, I would set it at 14 total Grand Slams for Djokovic. With his dominance recently, I might move it to 15 because a lot of money may go on Djokovic to beat 14. Djokovic does have an advantage Federer did not have after the age of 29: lesser competition. When Federer was ages 29-34, Nadal was still in his prime. As we know, Nadal is his kryptonite. It only got worse once Federer was not in his prime and Nadal was. Moreover, Djokovic took a quantum leap forward in 2011 to put another top 5 All-Time Great in his prime as an obstacle. Djokovic’s biggest competition now is Federer who is past his prime but still dangerous and Andy Murray. Djokovic has owned Murray outside of a couple Grand Slam Finals. In addition, Murray is actually older than him by a week so he will also be turning 29 soon. Of course, some unexpected young gun could take a big step forward and become a top player. Maybe, someone like a Nick Kyrgios will be the next Djokovic. He is immature but I also did not take Djokovic seriously early in his career when he was making impersonations of other tennis players (e.g. Maria Sharapova) on the court during matches. I really do not know who could emerge from the current crop of young players, but it could happen.

Federer won 16 of his Grand Slams in his prime before the age of 29. He won 16 of the 29 Grand Slams he played in during the span he won all of them: 59 percent. To put it into perspective, Djokovic is only 11/19, 58 percent, in just the Grand Slam Finals he has played in. Of course, it is not a knock that Djokovic has not matched Federer’s prime because no other player has. Nevertheless, I find it difficult to believe that he can make it up at the back of their careers. If Djokovic could not come close to matching Federer’s prime, how can he possibly win 6 Grand Slams after age 29 if Federer could only pull off one? The optimistic prediction of 4 I noted above, to get him to 15, would be an incredible accomplishment.

Roger Federer’s Miraculous Career and Longevity

In my opinion, Federer should still be considered the greatest player of All-Time. Nadal’s overwhelming success against him is a fact. It is the only mark against Federer’s career but it is a significant one. Federer obviously does not match up well against Nadal’s style. In his defense, most of those contests were on clay. In this regard, Federer is a victim of his own success and consistency on all surfaces. He usually made it to the end of the clay tournaments just to lose to Nadal. While Nadal can also win on hard courts and grass, he was not nearly as great on those surfaces as Federer. Injuries were also an issue in Nadal’s career. He also appears to have broken down after 28. I believe durability and longevity in addition to 17 versus 14 Grand Slams is what history will use to decisively put Federer above Nadal. Besides the Grand Slams, Federer holds most of the other the records and he set them in the Golden Age of Tennis when he had to play against Nadal and Djokovic. They were there to stop him from obtaining those accolades and did not. Performance against the full field of players counts too. The full body of work is more important than head to head records, which are smaller sample sizes. Nevertheless, I accept that it will be debatable. If Djokovic gets to 14-15 Grand Slams with a French Open title to combine with his head to head winning records against everyone, he can join the debate too. Obviously, he will be the undisputed greatest of All-Time if he ties Federer in Grand Slams.

For his age or any age, Federer has played incredibly the last two years. If it were not for Djokovic, who is in his prime and has arguably already joined Federer and Nadal as the top 3 tennis players ever, I believe Federer would have won at least two of the three Grand Slam Finals he played in during the last two years. It would have put him at 19-20 Grand Slams. Of course, you only get credit for the ones you win. It is a twist of fate since Federer was in his prime denying Djokovic at the beginning of his career. Outside of facing Djokovic, Federer has been sensational and dominating the rest of the field since the start of the 2014 Wimbledon. Specifically, Federer has steamrolled all the other players in the field (dismantling Andy Murray in the 2015 Wimbledon Semifinals is the best example) in the last three Majors before being beat convincingly by Djokovic in each instance. He even captured our imagination with the SABR, Sneak Attack by Roger, at the 2015 US Open. Federer may very well never win another Grand Slam because of Djokovic. Nevertheless, he still loves playing and does it exceptionally. He is still a privilege to watch.

May 22 is an important date for Federer. It is Novak Djokovic’s 29^th birthday. If he loses a step and needs some time to adjust and transition his game with diminished skills, it may create one last window for Federer to win another Grand Slam. He has already learned to play at an advanced age. He just needs to wait Djokovic out.