Baseball July Progress Report: American League

AL East

1. Baltimore Orioles (60-47)

The Orioles went 17-8 in July to take the lead in the division. They are a good team in a surprisingly poor AL East this season. Their strength is offense but they actually had a poor July hitting batting only .229 with a .286 OBP. Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce were carrying team but batted only .231 and .211 in July. Chris Davis continues his poor season after a monster season last year. While he is batting only .196, he still has 17 homeruns and 51 RBIs. Manny Machado is finally getting it going after a gruesome injury that cost him the beginning of this season. He batted .333 with .356 OBP, 4 homeruns, and 10 RBIs during the month. Of course, he is also playing unbelievable defense at third base and often shows off his cannon of an arm. With a cold offense, the Orioles pitching stepped up with a 1.16 WHIP and 2.96 ERA during July. They have no ace. They get the job done with solid starters. However, they need an ace to be serious title contenders. While they acquired stud left handed reliever Andrew Miller from the Boston Red Sox, they really needed ace Jon Lester instead. Nevertheless, Miller is one of the best relievers this season and can provide enough of an edge for the Orioles to win a weak AL East.

Grade: B+

2. Toronto Blue Jays (60-50)

The Blue Jays were red hot in May then came back to the pack. They suffered key injuries to slugger Edwin Encarnacion, third baseman Brett Lawrie, and DH Adam Lind. As such, their offense lost a lot of bunch of production. Nevertheless, they still scored more runs than the rest of their division during the month. Squeezing as much out of their ordinary starting pitching continues to be the key to their season. Mark Buehrle was unconsciously good at the beginning of the season. He is falling back to his career averages and had a 5.74 ERA in July. R.A. Dickey’s Cy Young Award winning season with the New York Mets was a fluke but he is still a good pitcher. Marcus Stroman is progressing to become their best pitcher very quickly. In July, he was 3-0 with 0.95 WHIP, and 1.71 ERA, with 31 Ks versus only 8 walks. The back of their rotation is bad. J.A. Happ and Drew Hutchison need to pitch better even when the offensive firepower returns.

Grade: B

3. New York Yankees (55-52)

The Yankees have lost four of the five starters from their opening day rotation. The biggest loss was ace Masahiro Tanaka during the month. Their offense has been mediocre at best this season. They have done well just to stay above .500. They have a -30 run differential. The San Diego Padres are a -32 and have a 48-60 record. GM Brian Cashman made smaller moves for incremental improvement. Starter Brian McCarthy has pitched very well. Chris Capuano has been decent. Third baseman Chase Headley hit a walkoff single in his first game and has looked good. He had a monster second half two seasons ago. The Yankees hope he has a hot finish to the season. They also added shortstop Stephen Drew and infielder Martin Prado at the trade deadline. Drew has not hit at all but he is still an excellent fielder. He will play out of position at second base but Brian Roberts was dreadful in the field. As such, Drew cannot play the position any worse. Prado will play right field. I do not really like this deal. He still has 2 years for $22 million after this season. Even when he was a good player, I thought he was overrated. Nevertheless, he can be useful in the future. He can play multiple infield positions so he can take over at second base next season or be insurance for AROD at third when he returns from his suspension next season. Prado is nothing special though. The Yankees have stayed afloat and in the playoff race. However, they will need Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda to return to bolster their rotation and their veteran hitters to start hitting.

Grade: B-

4. Tampa Bay (53-55)

The Rays finally heated up in July going 17-6 during the month. However, the Orioles also played very well and the Rays only gained a game in the standings on the division leaders. As a result, the Rays decided to sell instead of buy at the trade deadline by dealing their ace David Price to the Detroit Tigers. I do not have a problem with trading Price because of the Rays financial constraints. On the other hand, they have noted that they would only trade Price for a King’s Ransom. Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin from the Seattle Mariners, and the Tigers 5^th best prospect is a modest return at best. Smyly is a good pitcher but he is a middle of the rotation starter. Nick Franklin is a decent prospect but I doubt he develops into anything but a solid starting infielder. Getting the 5^th prospect in a weak Tigers farm system is also nothing to brag about for the Rays. Accordingly, I feel the Rays should have just kept Price and played for a Wild Card spot. Price is also under contract for another season so they could have revisited trades in the offseason. For all these reasons, I do not like the trade at all.

Grade: C+

5. Boston Red Sox (48-60)

The Red Sox went from last to champs last season. They are returning back to last this season. While they get a D for their performance this year, a World Series title last year and three titles in the last decade gives them a pass for this season. I also like the haul they received by trading starters Jon Lester and John Lackey as well as reliever Andrew Miller. For Lester, they received slugging outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the Oakland As. He has a ton of power and a laser rocket arm on defense. Playing in Fenway Park will only help his batting. The Red Sox also received a compensation draft pick from the As. In addition, they can outbid teams and re-sign Lester in the offseason if they choose. It is the same situation they would have been in if they did not make the trade. However, most experts believe it is unlikely since they would have paid Lester already if they intended to give him a monster contract. I also like the haul they got for Lackey. Allen Craig is an All-Star hitter. While he is often injured and hitting poorly this season, I expect him to hit very well in Boston. Moreover, they received starter Joe Kelly. He is nothing special but should be at least a back of the rotation pitcher who can eat up innings. For Andrew Miller, the Red Sox received pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. He is the third best prospect in the Orioles system. I give the Red Sox a boost on their grade for making all these great trades that will help them retool the team for next season.

Grade: C+

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers (58-47)

Despite a lackluster 13-13 July, the Tigers are the class of the division and will win it. They loaded up for the postseason by acquiring David Price from the Rays at the deadline. In my opinion, they got him cheap. Smyly and their fifth best prospect is nothing special. Moreover, trading outfielder Austin Jackson to the Mariners so the Rays could get Nick Franklin is also nothing special. Jackson is talented but has never realized his potential. With Price, the Tigers now have three former Cy Young award winners: Justin Verlander, David Price, and Max Scherzer. Price is having an incredible season with 1.05 WHIP, 3.11 ERA, and 189 Ks against only 23 walks in 170.2 innings. It definitely responds to the Oakland As acquiring Jon Lester. On the other hand, Verlander is very ordinary now with 1.42 WHIP, 4.66 ERA, and mediocre 110 Ks/ 52 walks ratio in 150.2 innings. Nevertheless, they may not even need him. Anibal Sanchez won the ERA title last year and is pitching very well again this season. Rick Porcello is having a resurgent season at 13-5 with 1.12 WHIP and 3.18 ERA. They also traded for Texas Rangers closer Joakim Soria. Although he has been terrible since the trade, he was having a stellar year with the Rangers and I expect him to turn it around once he gets settled in with his new team. Moreover, the Tigers elite offense got even better with the emergence of outfielder JD Martinez. If you have not been paying attention to him, he is batting .321 with .363 OBP, 15 homeruns, and 48 RBIs. Adding JD Martinez to Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, and Ian Kinsler makes the offense even more devastating. The Tigers are totally loaded and ready to duke it out with the Oakland As for the AL Pennant.

Grade: B+

2. Kansas City Royals (55-52)

The Royals surged in June and shortly took the lead from the Tigers when their offense showed life. However, it cooled off in July as the Royals only scored 85 runs which is the second least for the month in the AL. Consequently, they only went 12-13 in July. They have talented young hitters that have simply not developed into anything that they were supposed to be. Unless they turn it around drastically suddenly and start scoring a lot of runs the rest of the way, I expect the Royals to hover around .500 and continue their playoff drought.

Grade: B-

3. Cleveland Indians (53-55)

A lot of things went right for the Indians last season when they secured a Wild Card spot and one game playoff last season. They have regressed to where I thought they should have been last year. Despite subpar years from Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Nick Swisher, the Indians offense is still their strength. Outfielder Michael Brantley has emerged batting .322 with .383 OBP, 15 homeruns, 68 RBIs, and 12 steals. Third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall and catcher Yan Gomes have emerged as productive hitters. They also had some big disappointments in the starting rotation. Their ace last season, Justin Masterson, had a 5.51 ERA and was traded at the deadline to the St. Louis Cardinals. Danny Salazar was expected to develop into an ace. He was horrible, sent to the minors, and has only recently returned. A major bright spot is the emergence of Corey Kluber. He continues to quietly be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball at 11-6 with 1.08 WHIP, 2.61 ERA, and 170 Ks versus 33 walks in 158.1 innings. Cody Allen has also emerged as a dominant closer with 1.05 WHIP, 1.93 ERA, and 62 Ks compared to 17 walks in 46.2 innings while racking up 14 saves. While it has been a disappointment for the Indians so far after last season, they clearly have some great, young players. They continue to build and grow as a team.

Grade: B-

4. Chicago White Sox (53-56)

The White Sox have rebounded decently after an atrocious 2013 season. Nevertheless, they do not have enough players to make a run at the playoffs. They have two players having tremendous seasons that you should continue to follow the rest of the season. Rookie Jose Abreu is batting .308 with .368 OBP, 31 homeruns, and 84 RBIs. He is the clear AL Rookie of the Year after Masahiro Tanaka’s injury. On the pitching side, Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is 10-1 with 0.90 WHIP, 2.09 ERA, and 129 Ks versus 20 walks in 116 innings. They are the building blocks as the White Sox look to the future.

5. Minnesota Twins (48-59)

They just do not have enough talent to compete. They are clearly in a rebuilding mode. There is nothing more to say about the Twins at this point.

Grade: D

AL West

1. Oakland As (66-41)

The As have the best run differential in baseball at +162 and it is not even close. It is no surprise why they have the best record in baseball. As a result, I was shocked that they traded their slugging outfielder and cleanup hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, at the deadline to the Red Sox for Jon Lester. They already have top starting pitching so I did not understand why they would weaken their offense. However, there are valid reasons if you look closer. Aces are keys in postseason situations. Lester has pitched great in the postseason and been part of two World Series winning teams. He has more postseason experience than the rest of the staff. In addition, Jason Hammel has not pitched well since the As acquired him from the Cubs and Jesse Chavez is already over his previous career high in innings. Accordingly, the As definitely need Lester to be safe from the perspective of having enough arms to finish out the regular season. With the Los Angeles Angels breathing down their neck for the division lead, they need to push to win the division and avoid a one game playoff. Regardless, the trade is a risk that we need to wait and see on how it works out. I love that GM Billy Beane is going hard after that elusive championship.

Grade: A+

2. Los Angeles Angels (64-43)

After years of signing aging superstars to massive contracts but having disappointing seasons, the Angels have returned to the top of the league. I had my doubts given recent history but they are legitimately good with the second highest run differential at +90 behind the As. Mike Trout continues another MVP caliber season batting .303 with .393 OBP, 25 homeruns, 81 RBIs, and 12 steals. He is also getting support from aging superstars, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. They are still terrible contracts but at least they are providing production now. Accordingly, the Angels have one of the best offenses in baseball. Their pitching has been good enough. Jered Weaver continues to be effective despite diminished velocity. Garrett Richards continues his breakout season at 12-4 with 1.02 WHIP, 2.58 ERA, and 152 Ks versus 48 walks. He is the real ace of the Angels now. However, I remain skeptical that the rotation can be strong enough down the stretch for the Angels to overtake the As. The Angels also had a gaping hole with their closer situation during the season. However, they corrected the problem by trading for Huston Street. Although he has been injury prone, he has been one of the best closers in baseball when healthy over his career. He really settles the issue at the end of games for the Angels.

 

Grade: A

 

3. Seattle Mariners (56-52)

The Mariners continue to be led by their pitching. Felix Hernandez’s statistics are still eye opening at 12-3 with 0.88 WHIP, 1.97 ERA, and 186 Ks versus 32 walks. The hitting continues to be a problem even with the signing of Robinson Cano during the offseason. However, the Mariners made a couple of solid trade acquisitions by trading for Kendrys Morales from the Twins and talented centerfielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers. While both hitters have been disappointments with their previous teams, it cannot get much worse for the Mariners so these hitters can only help. The Angels and As will fight hard for the division to avoid the Wild Card. You better believe that the specter of Felix Hernandez pitching that game for the Mariners adds even more motivation to avoid that situation.

Grade: B-

4. Houston Astros (44-65)

They are still a couple years away from respectability. However, their prospects are coming. Outfielder George Springer and first baseman Jon Singleton have already flashed glimpses of a bright future on the Major League team. While the Astros are still losing, the young studs that are with the Astros and coming from the farm system give Astros fans reasons to watch and hope.

Grade: C

5. Texas Rangers (43-65)

Everything has gone wrong for the Rangers this year. However, they will have key players returning from injury next year. Add a couple of key free agents and they will be back in business for next season. They made the correct move by trading closer Joakim Soria for prospects. Top closers are a luxury for the better teams. If you are a bad team and can get prospects, you should pull the trigger.

Grade: D

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