NBA Playoffs: Western Conference First Round Preview

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference First Round Preview

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(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs (62-20)

Offense: 105.4 PPG, 43.3 RPG, 25.2 APG, 48.6%, 78.5 FT%, 39.7 3P%, 14.1 TOPG

Defense: 97.6 PPG, 44.4 FG%, 35.3 3P%, 13.3 TOPG

 

Game 6 of last year’s NBA Finals was excruciatingly devastating as they blew a sure Championship in the final minute. As a result, I expected them to have some kind of hangover and not be as good. However, they just keep on winning. Greg Popovich has done an amazing job coaching his team and managing the minutes of his players. Their big three is still effective. Tony Parker is their best player and one of the toughest players to guard, Tim Duncan still has plenty in the tank, and Manu Ginobili is still a playmaker. The Spurs have been able to limit the minutes of their older stars by building depth. They made  another great addition to their bench by signing Marco Belinelli. He has added 11.4 points per game and another playmaker off the bench. The big three will be productive in the playoffs. The player that can take the Spurs to another level is Kawhi Leonard. He showed flashes of being a future star in last year’s playoffs. He could be this year’s Paul George and completely breakout in the postseason. The Spurs have been expanding his role and he has increased his points per game every month since January, from 11.3 to 16.1 points. Regardless, the Spurs are true Championship contenders. Their front office and coaching staff have done an amazing job keeping their championship for so long.

 

(8) Dallas Mavericks (49-33)

 

Offense: 104.8 PPG, 40.9 RPG, 23.6 APG, 47.4%, 79.5 FT%, 38.4 3P%, 13.2 TOPG

Defense: 102.4 PPG, 46.4 FG%, 37.2 3P%, 15.4 TOPG

 

After striking out in free agency trying to sign superstar free agents in recent offseasons and missing the playoffs last season, the Mavericks acquired some help for Dirk Nowitzki even if they are not superstars. Monta Ellis is one of the better scoring shooting guards in the league while Jose Calderon is a solid, playmaking point guard. While Nowitzki is not as great as he was during his prime, he is still a great scorer. They are a very good team and narrowly missed 50 wins to give the West 8 teams with 50 wins. It is a tough conference to play in.

 

Seasons Series:

 

The Spurs swept the series 4-0 convincingly. Their lowest margin of victory was by 6 points. The Mavericks played the Memphis Grizzlies hard in the final game of the regular season to avoid the Spurs in the first round. It went into the overtime but the Mavericks lost.

 

Prediction:

 

While the Mavericks gave Nowitzki more help this year, it is not nearly enough. The Spurs thoroughly dominated the Mavericks in the regular season. Naturally, I am taking the Spurs but I will give the Mavericks a game to respect Nowitzki’s brilliance.

 

Spurs in 5.

 

 

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Memphis Grizzlies

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (59-23)

 

Offense: 106.2 PPG, 44.7 RPG, 21.9 APG, 47.1%, 80.6 FT%, 36.1 3P%, 14.8 TOPG

Defense: 99.8 PPG, 43.6 FG%, 35.8 3P%, 14.5 TOPG

 

Kevin Durant has had a MVP season averaging 32 points, 7.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.7 blocks. He has done it all this season and carried his team. He took his game to a whole new level when his side kick, point guard Russell Westbrook was injured. In regards to Westbrook, he is still an excellent player averaging 21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.9 steals. However, the injuries have slowed him down a little. Big man Serge Ibaka also continues to improve as he has increased his production to 15.1 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. While this group would be even more formidable if they could have kept star James Harden, they received assets including draft picks to build a bench and depth. Reggie Jackson is at the top of the list of best backup point guards in the league. He averaged 13.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while also filling in very well in Westbrook’s absence. Jeremy Lamb was a clutch scorer in UCONN’s NCAA Championship in 2011. He is already a good bench scorer averaging 8.5 points. These role players will need to make significant contributions if the Thunder will win the Championship.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (50-32)

 

Offense: 96.1 PPG, 42.4 RPG, 21.9 APG, 46.4%, 74.1 FT%, 35.3 3P%, 14.3 TOPG

Defense: 94.6 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 35.5 3P%, 13.6 TOPG

 

The Grizzlies play tough defense and are very physical. They have had a lot of success playing with this style in the playoffs in recent years. As an 8th seed, they upset the San Antonio Spurs three years ago. They also made it to the Western Conference Finals last year before being swept by the Spurs. I really like the Grizzlies’ game. Dave Joerger took over as head coach from Lionel Hollins. The team struggled at the beginning of the season. As such, they won 6 less games than last year. However, they picked it up during the season after the acquisition of Courtney Lee that added some outside scoring. The signing and return of Mike Miller during the offseason has also provided another shooter and scorer from the perimeter. Of course, they also have one of the best front lines with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Mike Conley is a very good point guard. Overall, they are a great defensive team with great individual defenders. Nevertheless, offense is their issue. Specifically, having a clear go to player down the stretch will be a challenge in the playoffs. They can throw the ball down to Randolph or Gasol. Conley will handle the ball in the perimeter and they can draw up a play to get a shooter like Mike Miller a shot. However, they cannot count on any of these players to take over a game down the stretch.

 

Season Series:

 

The Thunder won 3 of the 4 matchups in the regular season. The Grizzlies won one of the games at home. The Thunder won their games in convincing manner. The smallest margin of victory was 6.

 

Prediction:

 

The Grizzlies beat the Thunder 4 games to 1 in the Conference Semifinals last year. However, Russell Westbrook was injured. Moreover, Durant has improved his game even more and the supporting cast has stepped up this year. The Grizzlies will play tough. Nevertheless, Durant will clearly be a significant factor in this series and the Thunder should win this matchup comfortably this year.

 

Thunder in 5.

 

 

(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) Golden State Warriors

 

Los Angeles Clippers (57-25)

 

Offense: 107.9 PPG, 43 RPG, 24.6 APG, 47.4%, 73 FT%, 35.2 3P%, 13.3 TOPG

Defense: 101 PPG, 44.1 FG%, 33.2 3P%, 14.7 TOPG

 

The Clippers made some big acquisitions in the offseason. They picked up JJ Reddick and Jared Dudley for outside shooting. Darren Collison is a solid backup point guard. Glen Davis and Danny Granger were also decent pickups during the season. Of course, the re-signing of superstar point guard Chris Paul was essential. It was helped by the trade for Head Coach Doc Rivers. The Clippers have faced significant injuries to key players that included JJ Reddick and Chris Paul for long stretches. Nevertheless, they still won 57 games and had the best offense in the NBA. Rivers’s real worth will be in the playoffs. He needs to raise his team’s defense to a Championship level. Moreover, he needs to guide them through the half court offense. The game slows down in the playoffs and becomes more of a half court game. The Clippers have struggled with it. The key to success will be the evolution of Griffin. He has improved his jump shot and learned to be the focal of an offense during Paul’s injury. He stepped up during that period. If he can continue his improved play in the playoffs, it could be the spark for a deep playoff run. Another key player to watch is JJ Reddick. His ability to pass and move the basketball as well as his outside shooting can help half court execution. They are exactly the reasons he was acquired by the Clippers.

 

Golden State Warriors (51-31)

 

Offense: 104.3 PPG, 45.3 RPG, 23.3 APG, 46.2%, 75.3 FT%, 38 3P%, 14.9 TOPG

Defense: 99.5 PPG, 43.6 FG%, 34.4 3P%, 14.5 TOPG

 

The Warriors had a coming out party in last year’s playoffs. They shot the crap out of the basketball. Stephen Curry is a superstar and is one of the most unique players I have ever seen. He averages 24 points, 4.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.6 steals. Moreover, he shoots 47.1% from the field, 42.4% from three pointers, and 89% from the line. His shooting is ridiculous. More impressively, he takes very deep shots and is able to pull up for shots while driving the basketball at full steam. Lebron James has commented that Curry is the most difficult player in the NBA for him to guard. Klay Thompson is a great compliment to Curry in the backcourt as he is one of the other best shooters in the NBA. The addition of Andre Iguodala was solid because he provides versatility, athleticism, and defense on the perimeter. David Lee is a good big man that can run with these horses. Andrew Bogut is also a big factor as he provides rebounds and a defensive presence. Unfortunately, he is out due to injury. The Warriors live by the jump shot and die by the jump shot. They lack a low post, back to the basket scoring threat that can weather the storm when the jump shots do not fall. For this reason they are not true title contenders. However, they are a dangerous matchup because of their ability to shoot the ball.

 

Season Series:

 

The team split the regular season series 2-2 with the home team winning each game. Only one of the games came down to a small margin.

 

Prediction:

 

The guard play will be tremendous. It will be very fun to watch Chris Paul going against Stephen Curry. The difference will be the Clippers’ stark advantage down low with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut. I expect Blake Griffin to have a big series. DeAndre Jordan should be able to dominate the boards without Bogut in his way.

 

Clippers in 6

 

 

(4) Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers

 

Houston Rockets (54-28)

 

Offense: 107.7 PPG, 45.3 RPG, 21.4 APG, 47.2%, 71.2 FT%, 35.8 3P%, 15.4 TOPG

Defense: 103.1 PPG, 44.3 FG%, 35.3 3P%, 13.4 TOPG

 

Year 1 of the Dwight Howard and James Harden combo has been acceptable. They have a tremendous offense. However, it is comical that they have no defense with a former Defensive Player of the Year in Dwight Howard on the team. James Harden is definitely the best player on the team and one of the best playmakers in the NBA. He is averaging 25.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.6 steals. Howard has been good averaging 18.3, 12.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks. Although some hoped that head coach Kevin McHale could help Howard’s low post offensive game, it is still limited. They also have other very good young players. Chandler Parsons is a very athletic small forward that is versatile and can shoot threes. Terrence Jones is a solid compliment to Howard as a power forward. Patrick Beverley is a very good, young point guard. They have wisely transitioned Jeremy Lin to the bench as he plays the same game as Harden but is not as good at it. As such, he got in Harden’s way.

 

Portland Trailblazers (54-28)

 

Offense: 106.7 PPG, 46.4 RPG, 23.2 APG, 45%, 81.5 FT%, 37.2 3P%, 13.3 TOPG

Defense: 102.8 PPG, 45.1 FG%, 35.5 3P%, 13.3 TOPG

 

The Trailblazers are similar to the Rockets. They are a young and athletic team. They have an elite offense but a mediocre defense. Lamarcus Aldridge is arguably the best big man in the NBA averaging 23.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and a block. Second year point guard Damian Lillard is a rising star averaging 20.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 5.6 assists. Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum provide outside shooting. In regards to Batum, he is a versatile small forward that can also handle the ball. Robin Lopez is also a solid center that will score some points, grab rebounds, and play defense. They are also a tremendous free throw shooting team. The Trailblazers have taken a big step forward this season and should be a factor in the coming years.

 

Season Series:

 

The Rockets won 3 of the 4 games in convincing margins. The Trailblazers won their one game at home.

 

Prediction:

 

It will be a high scoring series. There will be very little defense played. It will be entertaining to watch. I really like the duo of Lillard and Aldridge. In particular, Aldridge is the only impact back to the basket scorer in this series. However, James Harden and home court will be the difference in this series. The Rockets also have a little more depth. Another key for the Rockets will be Patrick Beverley and whether he can slow down Lillard.

 

Rockets in 7.

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.

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