AFC Championship Game Preview

Baltimore Ravens v Denver Broncos

(2) New England Patriots (12-4) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)

(2) New England Patriots (12-4)

Overview

The Patriots have shifted from a passing team to a rushing team. It showed drastically in last week’s Divisional Game against the Indianapolis Colts as the Patriots scored 43 points without a single touchdown pass thrown by Tom Brady. Moreover, the great Patriot defenses in their Superbowl wins are well in the past. The current defense gives up a lot of big plays and yardage. While they are now an average defense, they hold firm in the redzone and generate turnovers. These characteristics also played out against the Colts.

 

Offense (Averages per game):

Points: 27.8 (3rd) Pass Yards: 255.4 (10th) Rush Yards: 129.1 (9th)

 

LeGarette Blount has been red hot since week 16. He scored 2 touchdowns in each of the last two regular season games. In the regular season finale against the Buffalo Bills, he rushed for 189 yards. He carried the momentum into the playoffs as he gouged the Colts for 166 yards and 4 touchdowns. Stevan Ridley also added 52 yards and 2 touchdowns. The New England Patriots use a running back by committee but it is an excellent group and a real problem for opponents. Shane Vereen was not even used much against the Colts. However, he is their best pass catching back and can be a big factor in any game. The Patriots lost their big time tight end when Rob Gronkowski suffered another injury and was lost for the season. I am not a big fan of their receiving core. However, Julian Edelman is reliable. He is great at catching a short pass and getting yards after the catch. He is a poor man’s Wes Welker. Danny Amendola has been a bust as a free agent signing but he is the receiver with the most big play ability on their current roster. He caught a key 53 yard pass against the Colts in the 3rd quarter to spark a drive for a touchdown after the Colts cut their deficit to 21-15. While the Patriots will need to rely on their running game again and need it to have another big game, they will also need Edelman and Amendola to have good games to prevent the Broncos from loading up in the box to stop the run.

 

Defense (Averages per game):

Points: 21.0 (9th) Pass Yards: 231.9 (13th) Rush Yards: 125.1 (26th)

 

The Patriots no longer have a great defense. Big plays can be made on them. However, they compensate by generating turnovers. These factors played itself out against Andrew Luck. While he burned them for two long touchdowns, they also forced him into 4 interceptions. Moreover, they are tough in the red zone. In the times that the Colts drove into the red zone, the Patriots held them to field goals while their offense continued to score touchdowns at the same time. They were also able to generate a pass rush against Andrew Luck. Of course, Peyton Manning is the best pocket passer. His line has protected him and he will pick their defense apart if they let him stand in the pocket unscathed. Accordingly, pressure will be critical. Lineman Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones combined for 8 and 11.5 sacks respectively in the regular season. Jones recorded one of three sacks of Luck.

 

Special Teams:

Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best kickers in the league. He hit 38/41 field goals. Moreover, he was perfect within 40 yards, 11/13 from 40+ yards, and 5/6 from 50+ yards. He did not come into play against the Colts as the Patriots kept on scoring touchdowns. However, he is a weapon in a close game especially in the thin air of Denver.

 

Denver Broncos (13-3)

 

Overview

The windy conditions threw off the offenses of the San Diego Chargers and the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Game. Neither team played their best game. However, Peyton Manning led his offense to get the Broncos an early lead and his defense stepped up big. The Broncos built a comfortable lead they never surrendered. Even though the Chargers made a comeback attempt in the fourth quarter to cut it to a one possession game, the game was never in real doubt. Accordingly, the Broncos advanced to the Championship Game in a year where it is a Superbowl win or bust.

 

Offense (Averages per game):

Points: 37.9 (1st) Pass Yards: 340.3 (1st) Rush Yards: 117.1 (15th)

 

In a year where Peyton Manning broke both the passing yard (5,477) and touchdowns (55), he had a modest game with 230 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception against the Chargers. Nevertheless, he drove the Broncos to two touchdowns and a 17-0 lead that they would never relinquish. Moreover, he was able to drive them and run out the rest of the clock to ice the game after the Chargers cut it to a one possession game. Accordingly, Manning scored and moved the ball when he needed to in tough weather conditions. He has a great trio of wide receivers. He hit Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker for touchdowns against the Chargers. Eric Decker had a quiet game but is a threat in any game. Manning also hit tight end Julius Thomas for key first downs. The acquisition of Welker and the emergence of Julius Thomas as a big play tight end have turned a great offense into a historic one. Running back Knowshon Moreno had been a bust during his career until Manning arrived. Manning has made him better and he is now an impact running back. He had 82 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He is the key to a balanced attack for the Broncos.

 

Defense (Averages per game):

Points: 24.9 (22nd) Pass Yards: 254.4 (27th) Rush Yards: 101.6 (8th)

 

The Broncos have a bad defense. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller generated a lot of pass rush last year. They do not have either right now. They did generate a good amount of turnovers with 26 during the regular season. However, they generated very little pass rush as they were last in the NFL with 20 sacks. The defense stepped up against the Chargers. They pressured Rivers all game and sacked him for 4 times. More importantly, they stuffed the Chargers running game. After surrendering over 170+ yards rushing against the Chargers in their previous matchup in the regular season, the Broncos held the Chargers to 65 yards in the playoff rematch. Generating pressure on Brady and containing the Patriots running attack that ran over the Colts will be crucial in slowing down the Patriots offense so Manning can win them the game.

 

Special Teams:

Matt Prater is a great weapon. He hit 25 of 26 field goals in the regular season. His only miss was from 50+ yards and he broke the NFL record making a 64 yarder this season. He missed a field goal last week against the Chargers. Accordingly, it proves how strong the wind was last week. Similar to Gostkowski, Prater is a weapon in a close game and he has already proven that he can hit 60+ yard field goals.

 

The Matchup:

The two teams met up in the regular season for another epic Manning and Brady showdown. The rematch in the AFC Championship Game will be another great chapter in the rivalry. At their advanced ages, it may be the final playoff showdown between the two legendary quarterbacks. As Brady is currently up 2-1 on Manning in their playoff matchups, this game has a lot of implications on both their legacies as they will always be compared to each other. If Brady goes up 3-1 in the rivalry with his 3 Superbowl wins and 6 Superbowl appearances, his supporters can make a great case that Brady is better than Manning due to playoff track records. If Manning wins and ties the playoff series at 2-2 and wins a second Superbowl, it helps support the argument that he is the greatest quarterback of all time. He is already the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. The game is another dream matchup for the right to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. The regular season game was a very unusual game. The Broncos built a 24-0 lead after the Patriots set them up with three consecutive turnovers. However, the Patriots gave the ball up and the Broncos gave it right back. The Broncos turned it over 4 times and the Patriots responded with 31 unanswered points to take a 31-24 lead. Manning drove the Broncos for a touchdown to tie the game before the end of regulation and forced overtime. The game was headed for a tie with Manning about to get the ball one more time to try to win the game. However, his special teams screwed up on a punt return and the Patriots recovered the ball in Bronco territory to set up a chip shot field goal to win a wild game.

 

In the game, Broncos linebacker Von Miller was a huge factor as he sacked Tom Brady twice, forced a fumble, and recovered and returned a fumble for a touchdown. He will not be in the rematch. On the other hand, the Patriots had Rob Gronkowski in that game and he had 7 receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown. Beyond the stats, he is a true gamebreaker and is always a player that teams have to focus on containing. The Patriots lose explosiveness in the passing game in his absence. While the Patriots lose their big play tight end, the Broncos gain theirs as Julius Thomas missed the first meeting. Thomas simply makes a great passing attack even better. He allows the Broncos to put four playmaking receivers on the field at the same time. His replacement for the regular season game, Jacob Tamme, led the Broncos receivers with 5 receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown. Thomas is a far superior receiver. He can definitely make some big plays and a huge difference. Knowshon Moreno also gouged the Patriots for 224 yards rushing and a touchdown. I expect him to be a factor in this game but I do not anticipate another dominating performance. Similarly, Julian Edelman torched the Broncos for 9 receptions, 110 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He is solid and will get some receptions. However, he is a poor man’s Welker. I believe he can be contained without Gronkowski to worry about as the Broncos can focus on shutting down Edelman instead. While the Patriots have a strong running game, the Broncos contained it to 116 yards in the first matchup. The Broncos are one of the better teams against the run and showed it again last week. In the end, Peyton Manning only threw for 150 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception in the regular season loss to the Patriots. In a season highlighted his gaudy stats, he will need to do better and carry the Broncos to the Superbowl on Sunday.

 

The keys to this game are:

1) Weather – If the conditions are similar to last week in Denver, it favors the Patriots who prefer a running game. In addition, they have no deep passing game and depend solely on short passing. While Manning can also play the short passing game, having his deep threats limited by weather will even the playing field for the Patriots.

2) Bill Belichick – He is the greatest defensive mind in the history of the NFL. While Manning is a cerebral quarterback that usually picks defenses apart with his brain as much as his arm, Belichick is smarter and has confused Manning in the past. It should be interesting to see the cat and mouse game again as Belichick attempts to disguise his coverages and generate enough pass rush to confuse and frustrate Manning. Moreover, it should be interesting to see if he tries to execute the game plan the Chargers wanted to utilize last week: running the ball to dominate time of possession to keep Manning off the field. Belichick and Bill Parcells used that strategy brilliantly for the New York Giants to stop the high powered Buffalo Bills and win Superbowl XXV.

3) Defenses – Both defenses will give up yardage and big plays. It will be important for them to hold the opposing offenses to field goals instead of touchdowns. They will need to generate as much pass rush as possible or either quarterback will tear them apart. In addition, any turnovers they can force may be the advantage their own quarterback needs to win the game.

4) Julius Thomas – He adds another dynamic to the Broncos offense. If the Patriots choose to take him away, it will just make it that much easier for one of the three receivers to make big plays.

5) Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola – The focus of the Broncos needs to be to stop the Patriots running game. As a result, Edelman and Amendola will have chances to make big plays. They need to be a factor to prevent the Broncos from loading 8 men in the box.

 

The Prediction:

The weather looks like it will be fine. While Belichick has gotten the better of Manning in the past, he also had great defenses with a line that could generate pass rush with only 3 lineman and great linebackers who could generate additional pass rush or drop into coverage. His defenders were also cerebral. They could disguise coverages and think with Manning. While I never count out Belichick’s defensive genius, I do not know if he has the personnel to slow down Manning especially with key injuries. The Broncos defense stepped up to stop the Chargers running game. I believe their defensive line will also step up to contain the Patriots running game. While the Broncos defense can give up big plays and gave up those plays to the Chargers Keenan Allen, the Patriots do not have a receiver close to the explosiveness and size of Allen. In my opinion, the Broncos should put 8 men in the box to make the Patriots wide receivers beat them. In the end, I believe Manning is out to prove himself. With Julian Thomas as an additional big time weapon this game, I think the Broncos offense will be too much for the Patriots defense to handle.

 

Broncos win.

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.

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