Fantasy Football 2013: Defenses and Kickers

Defense Overview

Over the years, the NFL has implemented rules to help the offense. For example, corner backs have been limited on how physical they can be with wide receivers at the line of scrimmage after former Indianapolis Colts President Bill Polian complained to the NFL that the New England Patriots corners were holding on to the Colts wide receivers in a playoff game. As quarterbacks are the most important players in the league and teams invest heavily in them, NFL rules have significantly restricted how defenders can hit quarterbacks. As a result of these rule changes, the NFL has made it much more difficult for teams to play great defense. Consequently, the upside of drafting a defense in fantasy football has been diminished. Nevertheless, you will want to try to grab a defense that causes a lot of turnovers and has defenders who are ball hawks that will try to score defensive touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, it is much better to have a defense that creates more turnovers than one that allows fewer points to the opponent. A team’s strength of schedule is also very important. The Chicago Bears defense last season is a perfect example of these concepts. They have a team that is able to cause turnovers and score a lot of touchdowns on defense. Moreover, they had a soft schedule last year. As such, they were able to bully lesser teams with turnover prone offenses. As such, they had some monster fantasy weeks when they caused 4-5 turnovers and scored multiple defensive touchdowns in some of the games against those teams. When they played against the better teams in the league, their fantasy weeks were much more modest. However, it is difficult to predict the strength of schedule. You can look at last season’s standings as a guide. However, the NFL has parity and the quality of each team fluctuates significantly year over year. Injury risk is another consideration for defenses. While you can always start a defense, except for its bye week, as a team will always be able to field a defense for each week, you actually expose yourself to more injury risk than less injury risk. For most positions you draft, you will only be exposed to the risk that the individual player will get hurt. When you draft a defense, you expose yourself to the injury risk of every player on that defense. The loss of a single player can be detrimental to that defense. For example, the Houston Texans were playing great defense last season until they lost linebacker Brian Cushing to injury for the rest of the season. Even the loss of lesser players can cripple a defense. In the New York Jets second trip to the AFC Championship Game under Rex Ryan, they lost safety Jim Leonhard to injury near the end of the regular season. Afterwards, they had difficulty adjusting to his absence and were completely torched in the games immediately following the injury.

 

For these reasons, the upside in fantasy football for drafting defenses has lessened over the years. The risk and reward is not worth it. It is difficult to analyze all the unpredictable variables that are needed to have a top defense. Moreover, the point difference advantage of getting it correct is not significant enough to reach for a defense. My strategy for drafting defenses in fantasy football is to not even consider drafting any defense until at least the 10^th round. Unless I really like a defense, I will wait till the 12^th round to draft a defense. In addition, I try to draft a solid defense with an ease of schedule in the top half of the league in order to have a decent option to start most weeks. Next, I will look at the waiver wire each week during the season to see if there is a weak offense I can stream against.

 

Kicker Overview

 

Kickers do not matter in the draft. I typically wait till the last round to draft one. Moreover, it is not necessary to draft one at all as you can pick them off the waiver wire. Top fantasy kickers are tough to predict as it is much more about field goal attempts than accuracy.  In addition, the ideal situation for a fantasy kicker is to play on a good offense but one that is not too good. Obviously, if an offense is terrible, a kicker will not get enough opportunities to kick field goals. If it is too good, it will hurt a kicker’s fantasy value as well. A great offense will end its deep drives with touchdowns. As such, its kicker will have extra points instead of field goals. For fantasy prosperity, a kicker needs its offense to be good enough to drive the ball into the other side but only far enough to set him up for 40 and 50 yard field goals, which result in the most fantasy points. As it is very difficult to predict which offenses will meet the criteria, it is impossible to pick and draft a top kicker. As a result, it makes sense to just draft a kicker for his matchup in week 1 of the season then use the waiver wire to pick up kickers throughout the season based on matchups.

 

Do not be the guy who thinks he can outthink the system. I had a friend who thought he knew kickers better than everyone else in the league. As such, he took Nate Kaeding in the 8^th round one season over starting running backs. He told me that he likes to steal points by having an advantage at odd positions such as kicker. Poetically, Nate Kaeding got hurt on his first kickoff of the season and did not score a single fantasy point. The only points my friend stole that season was from his running back and wide receiver positions. For all the above reasons, drafting kickers is pointless and there is no point in ranking them going into the season.

 

Defense Tiers

 

Below are the tiers broken out via projected fantasy points. In parentheses, I have the strength of schedule with (1) being the easiest schedule based on the finish of their opponents last season.

 

Tier 1

 

Denver Broncos (1)

Chicago Bears (17)

Seattle Seahawks (22)

New England Patriots (19)

San Francisco 49ers (24)

San Diego Chargers (2)

Houston Texans (6)

 

The Broncos have a top team and the easiest schedule. Their defense should be able to feed on their division and the rest of the schedule. They will follow the blue print of the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning: have the offense build a lead so the opponent is forced to throw and unleash the pass rush. The one issue with this defense is Von Miller is currently appealing a four game suspension. The Bears lost their leader of the last decade, Brian Urlacher, to retirement. While his skills were diminished, he is a presence. They are also an older defense that get another year older. Nevertheless, they still have ball hawks that can have big games against poor opponents. I like the Seahawks and 49ers the most as the best and most physical defenses. However, they have a couple of the tougher schedules in the league. The Patriots are not a great defense. However, they have fed on the turnover prone teams in their division (e.g. Mark Sanchez). You have to bench them against the better offenses. The Chargers quietly put up one of the higher point totals for a defense in fantasy last year. They added Freeney in the offseason and have the second easiest schedule.  The Texans have a ton of talent on defense and the makings of a great fantasy defense with JJ Watt disrupting the opponent’s line and getting sacks. The signing of safety Ed Reed gives them one of the best ball hawks in the history of the game. Their defense was not as good last year once Brian Cushing suffered a significant injury and was lost for the season. However, he is returning and the ease of the Texans’ schedule is also a plus.

 

Tier 2

 

Arizona Cardinals (26)

New York Giants (9)

Cincinnati Bengals (21)

St. Louis Rams (29)

Baltimore Ravens (28)

Green Bay Packers (27)

Cleveland Browns (12)

Minnesota Vikings (23)

Atlanta Falcons (18)

Washington Redskins (15)

 

These defenses are solid and should get you production on most weeks. The defense I like the most in this tier is the Arizona Cardinals. They were off to a great start at the beginning of last year. Unfortunately, their offense was putrid and their defense tired as they were on the field for too long. However, the addition of veterans Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhaal should give them a respectable offense that can keep their defense off the field more. Their secondary play is tremendous with Patrick Peterson starting to challenge Darrelle Revis as the best shutdown corner. They also added pass rusher John Abraham and drafted talented defensive back Tryann Matthieu to play safety. The one negative is their difficult schedule. They will also have to go up against QBs Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick twice. The Giants are another strong defense in this group. They have one of the top 10 easiest schedules and will be motivated more than ever to get to the Superbowl as it is in New York this year. However, their star defensive end Jason Pierre Paul needs to get healthy soon. The Ravens are a team in transition. Ray Lewis retired, they lost key free agents on both side of the ball, and have one of the toughest schedules because they won the Superbowl and are in a tough division. Stay away from that defense this season. An upstart team I like is the Cleveland Browns. While they have failed to meet expectations in recent years, they may finally have a breakout season.

 

Tier 3

 

Miami Dolphins (25)

Dallas Cowboys (8)

Tennessee Titans (10)

Indianapolis Colts (3)

Carolina Panthers (32)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16)

Pittsburgh Steelers (11)

New York Jets (14)

 

The Cowboys have the talent but consistency, discipline, and toughness will always be a concern until they prove otherwise. With one of the most favorable schedules, they are a solid pick with upside if you can get them late. The Colts have the third easiest schedule and made a big offseason acquisition by signing safety Laron Landry. Week 1 against Matt Flynn and the Oakland Raiders is promising as well. The Buccaneers traded for shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. They will certainly be a better defense but it does not mean they will be a great defense. Moreover, teams are afraid to throw near Revis so it is unlikely he will get a ton of picks and a few defensive touchdowns.  As such, Revis’s fantasy impact is debatable while his actual on the field impact is unquestionable.

 

Tier 4

 

New Orleans Saints (30)

Buffalo Bills (7)

Philadelphia Eagles (13)

Jacksonville Jaguars (20)

Detroit Lions (31)

Kansas City Chiefs (5)

Oakland Raiders (4)

 

These defenses are the ones you will want to avoid unless it is to stream against a very bad offense The Bills are good for two streams as they play against the Jets twice a year. The one team in this group I could see being better and a middle of the pack defense is the Chiefs. They have some talented defenders on their team. Their poor performance last season was exacerbated by a putrid offense. The additions of head coach Andy Reid and QB Alex Smith should improve the offense and keep the defense off the field more.

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