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Posted by on Jul 16, 2013 in Pat Wong, Sports | 0 comments

Baseball Mid Year Report Card (NL Central)

Andrew McCutchen, Clint Hurdle

NL Central

1.       Pittsburgh Pirates (50-31)

In my opinion, the Pirates are the best story in baseball with the best record in baseball. After 20 consecutive years of losing seasons, they are primed to end that streak and make the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds was a young superstar and the Pirates started the 1990s in 3 of 4 NLCS including back to back Game 7 losses to the Atlanta Braves. Their pitching has been great as they have given up the least runs in baseball. Their rotation includes successful veteran rejuvenation projects with AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano. Burnett was having a career year and will be back soon after missing a few starts due to injury. Liriano looks like the dominating pitcher we thought he could be when he first pitched for the Twins. Veteran Wandy Rodriguez has also been effective. Jeff Locke has been pitching great at 8-1 with a 1.15 WHIP and 2.12 ERA. However, his K rate is low and he walks a little too much so a regression in the second half should be expected. Nevertheless, he is tough to hit giving up only 73 hits and 6 homeruns in 102 innings. The Pirates have also called up top prospect Gerrit Cole. He has a high 90s fastball and holding his own. However, he will definitely need some time to develop into a top pitcher. Regardless, he should at least solidify the back of the rotation. Their bullpen has been just as spectacular. Veteran journeyman reliever Jason Grilli has continued his big second half from 2012 with a 0.88 WHIP, 2.15 ERA, and 60 Ks in 37.2 innings. Mark Melancon has rebounded from a nightmare season in Boston and been a spectacular setup man with a 0.82 WHIP, 0.87 ERA, and 24 holds. Most impressively, he has struck out 44 while only walking 4 in 41.1 innings this season. Grilli and Melancon have been anchors for an impressive bullpen. On the other hand, the Pirates still have a very average offense. Andrew McCutchen is definitely a superstar outfielder and leads the offense. Starling Marte has also stepped up as an emerging superstar outfielder batting .287 with a .341 OBP, 8 homers, and 23 stolen bases. Third basemen Pedro Alvarez provides a lot of power but bats only .243 with a lot of strikeouts and does not get on base enough. Russell Martin was a good pickup as a veteran catcher and has hit 8 homers. However, most of the offense is patched together and they do not have much power overall. The Pirates owe it to their fans to go as far as they can this year after years of futility. As such, I expect them to be buyers and try to trade for a couple of hitters with power.

Grade: A+

2.       St. Louis Cardinals (49-32)

The Cardinals are a great organization and just win. They let their franchise player and one of the All-Time great players, Albert Pujols, sign with another team and one of the greatest managers with 3 championships, Tony Larussa, retires and the Cardinals still win. They were a win from getting back to the World Series last year and keep on winning this year. They have a top offense and top pitching and have the best run differential at +112. The Cardinals offense is excellent and deep. Catcher Yadier Molina was respected as the best catcher in the game just for his defense and handling pitchers. Now, he has also become a top offensive catcher in recent seasons. He is batting a ridiculous .351 with a .393 OBP with 46 RBIs. He is definitely a MVP candidate. Overall, the Cardinals have fie players hitting over .300. Other big seasons of note are from Allen Craig, who is establishing himself as a top hitter after a breakout season last year with another great season hitting .325 with a .370 OBP, 10 homeruns, and 66 RBIs. Carlos Beltran has been rejuvenated in St. Louis and having another great season hitting .305 with 19 homeruns. Their highest paid player, Matt Holliday, has been decent batting .265 with 11 homeruns and 41 RBIs but has not really busted out yet this season. If he gets going, the offense could actually be even better in the second half. Their pitching has been just as dominating. After a full season pitching after Tommy John surgery in 2012, Wainwright is in top form in 2013 with a 1.00 WHIP, 2.36 ERA, and a ridiculous 117 Ks compared to 13 walks over 133.2 innings. Rookie Shelby Miller has proven he is the real deal with a 1.07 WHIP, 2.80 ERA, and 107 Ks compared to 24 walks over 99.2 innings. Lance Lynn has also had a very good season in his second year as a starter. The back of the rotation has also been solid. However, Jake Westbrook low K rate and 1 K/BB ratio does not support a 2.95 ERA. He will regress but should be an innings eater. In addition, Jaime Garcia was pitching well but he is out for the season after shoulder surgery. Top pitching prospect Michael Wacha will eventually take the spot. They are skipping some starts to save some innings as they are giving him a pitching limit. However, he should be more than adequate in rounding out the rotation as he more than held his own in his first stint with the Cardinals. Their bullpen has been great too. Although they lost top closer Jason Motte right before the season, Edward Mujica has stepped right up with a 0.79 WHIP, 2.55 ERA, and 22 saves. I do not expect the Cardinals to be big buyers at the deadline as they have everything they need already on their team or in their farm system. They may pick up an extra bench player or arm in the bullpen for the second half but nothing more.

Grade: A

3.       Cincinnati Reds (46-36)

The Reds are another great team in the NL Central. They have a solid run differential of +44, comparable to the Pirates. They have solid pitching. They also have one of the better and most talented hitting teams in the National League. First, they have a solid rotation. Mat Latos has been the ace and veteran Bronson Arroyo is consistent and reliable. Johnny Cueto has been their ace in recent years and has pitched well when he has been healthy but has been injured. Nevertheless, he will be returning soon and give their rotation another boost. Their young pitchers Mike Leake and Homer Bailey have stepped up this year. Tony Cingrani has also been solid and shown promise when he has filled in for Cueto. Bailey has taken a step forward as he has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.57 ERA, and 111 Ks compared to 26 walks in 111 innings and just pitched the second no hitter in his career. The Reds also have a solid bullpen anchored by fireball closer Aroldis Chapman, who has been a little more hittable this year but is still dominant with 59 Ks in 35 innings. On offense, Shin-Soo Choo was a big offseason acquisition and done very well as the leadoff hitter with a .417 OBP along with some power and speed. Their offense is anchored by superstar first basemen Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Phillips. Todd Frazier has also added some pop at third. Individually, their numbers are solid. However, I think this lineup has potential to do a lot more. The Reds are another team that has the players they need within their organization. At some point, speedster Billy Hamilton may be called up. He has set historic stolen base numbers in the minors. He stole 165 bases in the minors last year and has 48 steals so far this year. However, he has struggled at the plate this year in the minors and also has a low on base. As such, he may be used as a deadly pinch runner late in the season but not a full time outfielder. If the Reds do buy at the trade deadline, it may be for a veteran bat.

Grade: B+

4.       Chicago Cubs (35-45)

The Cubs were not expected to compete this season so it is not surprising that they are already out of it. They will be building around starter Jeff Samardzija, first basemen Anthony Rizzo, and shortstop Starlin Castro. Samardzija has definitely shown he can be an ace in the future with a 1.26 WHIP, 3.54 ERA, and 124 Ks in 119.1 innings. If he can cut down on his walks, he will definitely be one. Castro has had a bad year but should return to form as good shortstop for the future. Anthony Rizzo got off to an excellent start before cooling but he has shown enough to suggest he will be an excellent first basemen. The Cubs are sellers and have already started selling by trading Scott Feldman to the Orioles. On offense, Alfonso Soriano is a veteran power hitter that can help a team. However, the Cubs will have to eat some of his salary next year and they may be willing to if they get something in return. Veteran hitters David Dejesus and Ryan Sweeney are players that will get some interest for teams looking for a fourth outfielder. Starter Matt Garza will be coveted by a lot of teams. He has top of the rotation pedigree and was great in the postseason during the Rays’ 2008 World Series team. Lefthander Travis Wood would also get a lot of interest as he has a 0.98 WHIP and 2.69 ERA. However, he is only 26 and the Cubs may want to build around him. However, I think he is a middle of rotation starter as his K/BB ratio does not support his current WHIP and ERA. As such, the Cubs should try to cash in and sell high. Teams are always looking for pitching. Veteran Edwin Jackson is struggling but he could be a guy that is still attractive. He has good stuff and been an effective pitcher in the past. At worst, he can be an innings eater at the back of a rotation. Veteran reliever Kevin Gregg has had a great year a 0.99 WHIP and 1.59 ERA. He will definitely be coveted as teams are always looking to add another reliever.

Grade: C

5.       Milwaukee Brewers (32-48)

The Brewers have had a terrible season with one of the worst records in baseball and their superstar Ryan Braun is linked to another PED scandal. Overall, they have a horrible offense and horrible pitching. Braun has produced when he is on the field but he has been hurt this year. He may also get a long suspension with his links to BioGenesis. The two bright spots are Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Segura should be the rookie of the year batting .322 with 11 homeruns and 26 stolen bases. He will be their franchise shortstop going forward and has is a 5 tool player. Gomez was a prospect in the Mets farm system and was traded for Johan Santana. However, he did not live up to his hype and it appeared that he was a bust. However, he has developed in Milwaukee. After a strong finish to last season, he has been great this year batting .319 with 13 homeruns, 41 RBIs, and 18 stolen bases. Their starting pitching has been terrible outside of Kyle Lohse, who was signed right before the start of the season. On the other hand, their pen has settled down after the implosions by former closer John Axford at the beginning of the season. The Brewers will be sellers and have some pretty good pieces to sell. Veteran third basemen Aramis Ramirez was injured early in the season. However, he is a solid right handed bat with power. Veteran outfielder Corey Hart has been out all year but will return. He is a solid veteran hitter who may attract suitors as his contract expires after this season. Rickie Weeks has been terrible. However, he has a ton of talent and a team looking for a boost at second base and willing to gamble may acquire him to try to resuscitate his career. On the pitching side, Lohse is signed at a reasonable price. Although he is signed 2 more years, a team looking for a solid veteran starter may be willing to trade for him. Yovani Gallardo is also a veteran pitcher who may be traded. He has great stuff but never realized his potential. Although he is what he has shown to be at this point, a team thinking they can fix him will definitely be interested. At worst, he is a solid back of the rotation innings eater. The Brewers also have solid arms out of the pen they can trade. Former closer John Axford has turned it around and the Brewers will definitely try to trade him. Current closer Francisco Rodriguez has rebounded and been great with a 1.07 WHIP and 0.92 ERA. Jim Henderson has been solid with a 1.01 WHIP and 2.05 ERA and was a closer at a point. All three relievers will be coveted by teams looking to add to the bullpen. Despite their overall struggles, the emergence of Jean Segura as a franchise shortstop prevents them from getting a D.

Grade: C-

 

AL Central

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