Indecision 2013: Dwightmare Finally Over
After Lebron James made “The Decision” to leave his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat, the media turned its attention to the following year’s superstars free agents in small markets: Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, and Chris Paul. Witnessing how the Cavaliers were left with nothing after Lebron’s departure, the small market teams with those superstars were scared of losing their players without any compensation and decided to trade them before free agency if they did not sign an extension. Of course, each star went through his own drama in changing teams. Carmelo demanded a trade to the New York Knicks and forced the Denver Nuggets to only get whatever they could from the Knicks rather than have the opportunity to shop for the best package around the NBA. Eventually, Carmelo got his trade to the Knicks in season right before the trade deadline. Paul had an eventful process as well. At first, the Lakers traded for Chris Paul. However, the New Orleans Hornets were owned by the league and got objections from some of its owners. As such, Commissioner David Stern had to step in and veto the trade. As we know, Paul would eventually be traded to the Clippers. In order to get the Clippers to make the trade, Paul opted in by removing his option to opt out one year early from his contract. Nevertheless, the Clippers have put a talented, young team around Paul and acquired Coach Doc Rivers from the Boston Celtics. As such, they have successfully convinced Paul to sign a long term extension this offseason.
On the other hand, Howard’s drama seemed to start right after the NBA lockout ended and kept on going, going, and going. After the 2011 NBA lockout, Dwight demanded a trade. His first preference was the New Jersey Nets so he could team up with point guard Deron Williams. However, the Orlando was able to talk to him and convince him to back off his trade demands. From that point, Dwight’s indecisiveness affected the entire season. On a regular basis, we were bombarded with rumors of trade demands, requests for coach Stan Van Gundy to be fired, and Howard also stating he wanted to be on the Magic. Things heated up near the 2012 trade deadline but Howard eventually opted in by waiving his option to terminate his contract after the season. However, it resolved nothing as it just delayed the resolution of the drama to the summer and NBA fans would have to endure more of his indecision. In the summer of 2012, it looked like the Brooklyn Nets were going to acquire him but too many teams had to be involved for salary cap purposes and the trade fell apart. It opened the door for the Los Angeles Lakers to acquire Howard. While it was assumed that Howard would resign because the Lakers are a premiere franchise and could offer him the most lucrative contract. However, the Lakers had a rough season and Howard took criticism. The tough season opened the door for the rising Houston Rockets and they were able to steal Howard from the Lakers. Ironically, the new CBA purposely gives the team that drafts a player or the team that acquires those Bird rights a bigger advantage to resign their franchise players. In reality, it was meant to help a small market team stop a big market team, like the Lakers, from signing away their stars. In a reversal of roles, the small market Houston Rockets were able to sign a franchise center from the big market Los Angeles Lakers.
Indecision vs. The Decision
Lebron was a beloved player and the most popular player in the sport when he played for his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers. When he left them to join Dwayne Wade to form a super team in Miami, many fans thought he was selling out and lost respect for him for running to another superstar’s team. If he was truly the best player in the game and on the way of being the best ever, players should be flocking to him in Cleveland. To make matters worse, he decided to air a TV special to announce his decision. Not only did it appear arrogant, he made his departure a lot worse for the Cavaliers and their fans by televising it and inadvertently making a public display out of their misery. Moreover, they had a party at the America Airlines arena after the formation of the big three and boasted how they will win multiple championships (not 1, not 2, not 3… all the way to 7). It made their team look incredibly arrogant and just made it very easy for fans to root against them. With back to back titles, Lebron has erased all the criticism. He has earned back the goodwill he had before the Decision and it is now just a bump in the road for his brilliant career.
I do not think Howard’s indecision is as bad as the Decision. He did not have a televised event and he was not a native Floridian breaking the hearts of his home state. While fans are definitely annoyed by Howard’s antics and immaturity, I do not think it incurs the hatred that Lebron induced by his perceived arrogance. In addition, Howard will be playing in a small market. While the Rockets will definitely be on some nationally televised games now, we will not be bombarded constantly nearly to as much as we have been with the Heat and how great they are. The Rockets are a rising team but they still need to build and not an already built team that is supposed to win the championship. Now that Howard’s contract situation is set for the next 4 years, I have a feeling people will just tune him out unless the Rockets emerge as title contenders.
Nevertheless, Howard does need to repair his image. Before his indecision, he was a fan favorite. He was “Superman” and making great dunks during All-Star weekend. He was a 7 foot kid that has fun and we enjoyed watching him play. He was also a dominant basketball player, carrying a team past Lebron James and to the NBA Finals. Now, he is a perceived as a clown. As Lebron just proved, winning cures everything. Consequently, Howard knows he needs to win.
Houston Rockets Perspective
For the Rockets, the signing is a franchise altering move. They have a chance to be a big time franchise in the near future. GM Daryl Morey has done a great job. While he overpaid for free agents Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik last offseason, he knew he had to overpay to attract some free agents to start building his team. Right before the start of the season, he was able to trade for guard James Harden for a big package including multiple first round picks and good players like Kevin Martin. While it may seem like a no brainer as Harden has emerged as a great scorer and star, it was a risk to give up significant assets and a max contract to acquire a sixth man although he was on a top team. Harden definitely showed explosiveness as a member of the Thunder and won the 6th man of the year, but Morey still had to make the assessment and conclude that Harden is a franchise player. If other teams came to the same conclusion, there would have been a lot more fanfare and teams in pursuit of Harden. With the signing of Howard, they now have a great inside and outside duo. Chandler Parsons is also a budding star at small forward. While Jeremy Lin is a good point guard, he plays the same game as Harden. As Harden is a lot better at it, Lin gets in Harden’s way and it is the reason only Harden is playing at the end of games. It should be interesting to see what Morey does to build the team around his young core. While there is speculation that Lin and Asik can be traded for more compatible pieces, I highly doubt it. When the Rockets signed them, they back loaded the contracts to act as poison pills to deter their teams from matching the offers as they were restricted free agents. As such, those salary cap hits in later years will also deter other teams from trading for either player.
While Howard is an easy choice for the Rockets, it is not without risk. Howard had major back surgery and did not look 100% with the Lakers. He did not show the explosiveness he had when he was a top center for the Magic. In addition, he still needs to work on his offensive game. He has minimal post moves and does not know how to use his size like the great centers of the past. The hope is that Kevin McHale and Hakeem Olajuwon can help him develop in Houston. If he gets healthy and develops a dynamic offensive game, he can carry the Rockets to a title and be one of the greatest free agent signings in the history of the NBA. However, if he is hurt or does not progress in his game, he will be a good signing but an overrated one.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have a history of signing or acquiring great big man. For their franchise and their fans, it must be a shocking feeling for the script to flip on them and lose a potential franchise center. While the Los Angeles media wants to kill Howard for not being tough enough for LA, California is not exactly known for being a rough environment as some of the Northeast cities (e.g. New York, Boston, Philadelphia, etc.). Howard’s departure had more to do with the Lakers fumbling the situation and making Howard’s experience miserable. I think it had everything more to do with the Lakers franchise heading in the wrong direction than the pressure of Los Angeles. When the Laker brought in Steve Nash and Howard in the last offseason, they formed one of the most talented teams but it was also one of the most volatile. With all the personalities and egos on one team, it was also one of the most difficult teams to coach. When they fired Mike Brown after only a few games at the start of the season, it appeared that they would bring in Phil Jackson. The 11 time champion might be the only coach that could have received the respect of all the players and got them to play as a team. The issue that came to light in that situation is that owners Jim Buss and Jeannie Buss do not like each other. Jeannie is engaged to Jackson so she definitely preferred that he take over. However, Jim balked at Jackson’s demands and opted to be more economical by going with Mike D’Antoni. While a part of it is Jim’s ego in showing that the Lakers will not submit to the big demands of a coach, he probably also wanted to show his sister who is in charge of the Lakers. However, Jackson is the coach that Howard wanted as well. The Los Angeles Clippers brought in Doc Rivers for the purpose of convincing Paul to win. For the purposes of keeping Howard and having coach that gives them the best chance to win with their roster, the Lakers should have signed Phil Jackson.
As the Lakers try to move forward as a franchise after losing out on Howard, the ownership issue is a real concern. The dynamic between Jim and Jeannie may be an issue although Jim is mainly involved with personnel and basketball decisions and Jeannie is on the business side. As Jackson is unlikely to return to the sidelines for any team in the future, that relationship will not affect any more basketball decisions. However, Jim has shown he has an ego and it is negatively affecting the Lakers. His father Jerry Buss knew it was all about the players. If Jim thinks it is about him and becomes the Jerry Jones of the NBA, the Lakers will run into a rough patch in their history. Another issue for the Lakers going forward is the new CBA which will make it more difficult for them to acquire superstars like they have done in the past or in the manner that the Miami Heat got their big three. They may have to do it the way most teams do: be bad for a few years and build through the draft. Nevertheless, the Lakers have a history of building quickly and it would be unwise to count them out.
One of the positives that the Lakers and their supporters want to sell is that they only have Steve Nash signed after next season and will have a ton of cap space for the 2014 free agent class. However, the depth of the 2014 free agent class is misleading. Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade can all be free agents again if they exercise their opt out clauses. However, the Heat are winning championships and Carmelo was a Knicks fan and demanded a trade to the Knicks. As such, I think there is a greater chance that they sign an extension than opt out. The only signing that would be much bigger than Howard and make up for this year’s failure is Lebron. If Lebron opts out, I think he would go back to the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have a team with a lot of young players and a budding superstar in Kyrie Irving. If he can forgive owner Dan Gilbert’s eccentricity and rant in response to the Decision, I can definitely see Lebron returning to Cleveland for unfinished business and to return home as a conquering hero. Some of the better restricted free agents will be Paul George, John Wall, and DeMarcus Cousins. However, their teams will be able to match any offers. The Pacers and the Wizards will most likely match. If the Kings do not match on Cousins, it will be because they are unwilling to commit a significant, long term contract to someone with character problems regardless of talent. If the Kings would not take that chance, signing Cousins would not be a good idea for another team. A couple of unrestricted free agents might be Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph. They are All-Star quality players but not franchise players that can anchor a franchise. Even if all these players make it to free agency, there is no guarantee the Lakers can convince them to sign. They have cap space but I assume they bring back Kobe Bryant. As such, the Lakers will be selling an aging superstar to potential free agents. It has not exactly worked out in recent offseasons for the Dallas Mavericks with Dirk Nowitzki. It will be very interesting to see what the Lakers do the next two years.