Conference Finals Preview

Western Conference

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

San Antonio Spurs (58-24)

 

Offense: 103 PPG, 41.3 RPG, 25.1 APG, 48.1 FG%, 79.1 FT%, 37.6 3P%, 14.6 TOPG

Defense: 96.6 PPG, 42.5 FG%, 35.3 3P%, 14.2 TOPG

 

I thought the Spurs would figure out how to play the Warriors in the last round In the prior 2 seasons, they were eliminated by an 8 seed Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and the Oklahoma City Thunder last year in the Western Conference even after jumping to a 2-0 series lead as those teams were simply more athletic and the Spurs could not handle it. After the first 2 games in the last series, it looked like the Warriors were giving the Spurs the same problems. Even though the Spurs lost Game 2, they started to figure out how to play the Warriors and their role players started getting comfortable in the series. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson torched them in the first two games. However, they started to contain them. Curry still had a couple of big games but the Spurs had Thompson shut down the rest of the series. The key to the current version of the Spurs is Tony Parker. He is now their best player and the only player among their big three who is still in their prime. Besides the clinching game where the Spurs won despite Parker and Ginobili having poor games, Parker had big games in the Spurs first 3 wins. He will have to be consistently great if the Spurs are going to make it to the Finals. In addition, Curry torched Parker in the last series. Parker’s defense has to improve as well. Another key will be Tiago Splitter as the Spurs started to outplay the Warriors once his presence was felt.

 

Memphis Grizzlies (56-26)

 

Offense: 93.4 PPG, 42.7 RPG, 20.9 APG, 44.4 FG%, 77.3 FT%, 34.5 3P%, 13.2 TOPG

Defense: 89.3 PPG, 43.5 FG%, 33.8 3P%, 14.7 TOPG

 

Without Russell Westbrook, the Thunder really had no shot at winning the series against the Memphis Grizzlies. Every game was close down the stretch due to Kevin Durant’s big games. However, the Grizzlies physicality and depth eventually took its toll every game and Durant had no gas or much help to close out games. In addition, the Grizzlies could have swept the last series if they did not hand the Thunder Game 1. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are the best low post combination in the NBA. Mike Conley has really stepped up his game after Rudy Gay was traded and has gotten even better in the playoffs. The Grizzlies can now rely on him as the go to perimeter option in close games. Tayshaun Prince and NBA All Defensive First Teamer Tony Allen are also excellent perimeter defenders that can give any team’s perimeter players problems. In addition, Mike Conley made the NBA All Defensive Second Team. Overall, the Grizzlies give up the least amount of points. If you get past their perimeter defenders, you will still have Zach Randolph and Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol waiting for you.

 

Season Series:

 

The teams split the season series 2-2. The home team won every game. 3 of the 4 games were decided by 4 points of less with San Antonio winning by 21 in the only blowout. The Spurs also did an excellent job against the Grizzlies frontline as the rebounds were virtually the same each game. As rebounds did not create a difference in creating additional shot attempts, turnovers become more important as the team that had fewer turnovers won each game. However, in the one game where turnovers were tied, the Spurs won by 21 so winning turnovers will not automatically mean a win.

 

While the Spurs won 2 of the first 3 games, Rudy Gay was still a member of the Grizzlies in those games. In addition, Tim Duncan did not play in the last game of the season series which the Grizzlies won. In the Spurs 2 wins, Duncan had big games with 27 points and 15 rebounds and 19 points and 8 rebounds respectively. Duncan had 13 points on 5/14 shooting in the only game of the series the Spurs lost with Duncan. Tony Parker was the consistent factor for the Spurs all 4 games. While he had 30 points each of the first two games, the Grizzlies seemed to do a better job with him the last 2 games even though he still played well and made an impact. Despite the Grizzlies defensive prowess, the Spurs were actually very efficient against that defense as they shot 48% overall in the 4 games.

 

For the Grizzlies, Marc Gasol was contained and did not have any big games. The consistent factor for them in the season series was Mike Conley. In the only game where they were blown out, Conley had a terrible game. Another issue that popped out to me was the lack of bench production. Darrel Arthur had decent production off the bench in the first two games and Jerryd Bayless had 17 points off the bench in the final game. Other than those performances, there was not much bench production for the Grizzlies

 

Prediction:

 

Grizzlies in 6. The Grizzlies beat the Spurs as an 8 seed two years ago. The Grizzlies have a better team and Mike Conley has developed into a top point guard. The Spurs top players have gotten older. Over the course of the series, the Grizzlies physicality and athleticism will wear the Spurs down. I also expect the Grizzlies to bear down on Tony Parker in this series. Whether it is Conley, Allen, or even Prince, they will all spend time slowing him down and whoever is most effective against him will take him on down the stretch of games. As Parker scores a lot of his points in the paint, Randolph and Gasol waiting for him when he gets dribble penetration will be a key. Duncan and Splitter will hold their own against Randolph and Gasol. However, the Spurs are a much better regular season team than a playoff team now as they rely on the depth of their bench. In the playoffs, benches are shortened and the top players play more minutes. As such, bench players and depth is neutralized as the 4-9 best players on your team are not as good against the best teams’ 1-5 players as they are against their bench players who no longer get a lot of minutes in the playoffs.

 

If the Spurs win this series, they will need the following to happen: 1) Tony Parker needs to have a big series and play like a superstar. 2) Duncan and Splitter will need to have a big series and match the production of Randolph and Gasol. 3) The Grizzlies bench is weak so the Spurs bench will have to have a big series.

 

Eastern Conference Finals

 

(1) Miami Heat vs. (3) Indiana Pacers

 

Miami Heat (66-16)

Offense: 102.9 PPG, 38.6 RPG, 23 APG, 49.6 FG%, 75.4 FT%, 39.6% 3P%, 13.3 TOPG

Defense: 95.0 PPG, 44.0 FG%, 35.0% 3 P%, 14.7 TOPG

 

Surprisingly, the Heat dropped the first game of the series against the Chicago Bulls in Miami. While the shorthanded Bulls battled and kept most of the remaining games competitive, the Heat are the best team and were just too much for the Bulls to handle. One issue that has emerged is the health of Dwayne Wade and his right knee. If Wade is healthy enough to make an impact, it will make the Heat that much tougher to beat. However, they will be pretty tough to beat regardless. Lebron James is the best player in the game and got even better this year as he is having his best season. Chris Bosh has also had big games and a top big man in the NBA. They added to their depth in the offseason by signing Ray Allen. As such, they have Allen, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, and maybe even Rashard Lewis to hit threes to spread the floor for Lebron James. Norris Cole has also stepped up as an impact player in this postseason to make the rich even richer.

 

Indiana Pacers (49-32)

 

Offense: 94.7 PPG, 45.9 RPG, 20.3 APG, 43.6 FG%, 74.6 FT%, 34.7 3P%, 14.5 TOPG

Defense: 90.7 PPG, 32.7 3P%, 13 TOPG

 

In the second round, the Pacers played a team that was completely different from them in the New York Knicks. Similar to the Grizzlies, the Pacers are a physical and defensive team. The Pacers also are a team that depends on 5 good players playing well rather than one superstar. The Knicks were a finesse team that depended on three point shooting and Carmelo Anthony. Until the series clinching Game 6, none of the games were too close down the stretch as the team that plays better will win decisively as the 2 teams do not usually play well in the same game due to 2 completely contrasting styles of play. Over the course of the series, the Pacers’ physicality and team ball won out over the Knicks’ style. While Roy Hibbert was not much of an impact in the regular season series against the Knicks, the Pacers took over the series when Hibbert decided to make his presence known and took over the series. Lance Stephenson also stepped up big in the series, particularly in the deciding Game 6, with his physicality as a perimeter player. The Pacers also did well closing out on perimeter players and taking away the three pointer from the Knicks most of the series. One of the biggest weaknesses of the Pacers did rear its head in the series: turnovers. Even when the Pacers had their best games, they turned over the ball a lot. However, the Knicks did not have a team that could take advantage of those turnovers.

 

Season Series:

 

The Pacers won the series 2-1. However, the home team won each game and the Pacers had the extra home game. None of the games were really close. Similar to the Knicks and Pacers, the teams play conflicting styles. As such, both teams are not likely to play well in the same game. In the two wins, the Pacers were able to limit their turnovers and were efficient with their three pointers. David West was great in all three games of the series while Roy Hibbert was not much of a factor. Paul George and Lance Stephenson stepped up with good games in the wins as well but were horrible in their loss in Miami. During the Heat’s 2 losses, Lebron and Wade played well but did not get too much support from the rest of their team.  In their win, Bosh had 24 points on 11 of 15 shooting while Chalmers added 26 points and Ray Allen had 11 points off the bench. These results are not surprising. You usually need to rely on your top 2-3 players on the road cause they are able to produce on the road regardless while the 3-8 players on your team play better at home. That premise played out as those 3-8 players on both teams played well when they were at home.

Prediction:

Heat in 5. The Heat are too good and have too many weapons for the Pacers. The Heat are also great on defense and they can lock down the Pacers offense down the stretch of close games. In those close games, the Heat can go to and rely on Lebron, Wade, or Bosh to create their own shots and create for others such as Shane Battier, Ray Allen, or even Norris Cole of Mario Chalmers to hit open and big shots. Moreover, Norris Cole was not a factor in the regular season against the Pacers but has really stepped up in the playoffs. I expect him to have his moments in this series. The Pacers propensity to turn the ball over will be a huge problem as well as it will unleash the Heat’s transition game which is the best in the league with Lebron and Wade. While the Pacers strengths exploit the Heat’s weaknesses, I expect the Heat to be able to bear down on the Pacers in this series like they did last year. If the Heat do have a problem with the Pacers front line, I believe they can make the following lineup adjustment: Bosh at Center, Lebron at PF, Battier/ Wade at SF, Allen/ Cole at SG, and Chalmers/ Cole at PG. Lebron is strong enough to go head to head against Wade and stop him from scoring. George is a good player but not a great scorer so Battier’s defensive prowess can definitely handle him. Hibbert was a force against the Knicks but he really did not have to worry about Tyson Chandler or Kenyon Martin scoring on him as they are offensive liabilities. Bosh would run circles around Hibbert and also give him a problem by bringing him outside with his jump shot. I do not think Vogel can even leave Hibbert on the floor against that lineup.

If the Pacers are to have a chance in this series, they will need to the following to happen: 1) Paul George will have to play like a superstar on both ends of the floor. 2) Roy Hibbert will have to dominate on both ends like he did against the Knicks. 3) The Pacers will have to limit their turnovers to 12 or less. 4) The Pacers will have to hit at least 40% of their 3 pointers to spread the floor. 5) Lance Stephenson will have to play as well as he did against the Knicks. 6) Lebron James will get his numbers and Chris Bosh will get his points. The Pacers will have to contain a hobbled Wade and shut down the rest of the supporting cast. 7) They will have to have a significant rebounding advantage.

As those are two many things that need to all happen, I believe the Heat will end this series quickly unless Lebron James suffers an injury.

 

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