NFL Offseason: Minority Report (NFC South)

Welcome back.  Hopefully my assessment of the AFC South has settled in your brain quite nicely.  I hope the Texans enjoyed their day in the sun however short it seems it will be.  Last time a group had one member with such a short time in the spot light was N’Sync when JC Chasez snuck in a top single while JT was napping on a weekend, only to be squashed out by JT’s next big hit he released when he slept walk into the kitchen.  If you’re not keeping up, the Colts are JT, and the Texans are JC.  Looking now it’s strange how conference counterparts could have such parallel situations.  From a bird’s eye view the Falcons had a great season, and you would think their fans have every reason to be excited for it only to get better.  Well let’s see if I can crush some hopes and dreams.

Atlanta Falcons:

This is going to anger a lot of people on the interwebs.  But seriously Matty Ice isn’t great.  Don’t get me wrong.  He’s really good. But he’s in that class of QBs that analysts and fans alike wanted to anoint as “elite” way too quickly.  I put him in a class of Matthew Stafford, but to the credit of Matty Ice he’s way more consistent.  But again, given his receiving group, his consistent running game, and the schedule they had last year, I could’ve had a good season as the Falcons QB.  People are all too quick to give credit to a QB for an overall good team.  The Falcons will suffer the fate of the Texans. I think they take a 3 game swing and either barely make the playoffs or miss out on them.  Big play offenses just aren’t sustainable.  It may excite a city for a season or two, but they rarely ride that to a championship and are usually candidates for quick declines. Please see Minnesota Viking of the Culpepper and Moss era, or the Eagles two years ago, or the Cardinals with Warner.  It just can’t last and is usually a smoke screen for some other weakness that we’re all too distracted by the loud music and silicone to realize. So they lose their running back, and are either losing their tight end or are playing the oldest offensive player in the league.  They have two number one receivers whom act friendly now, but we all know wide receivers are of the Highlander personality; “there can only be one”.   Matty Ice out performed all his career numbers last season.  I’m a firm believer in return to the mean philosophy.  So get ready to see him back at his old 2011 self.  Which again isn’t bad, but definitely isn’t “elite”.  The Falcons will be a on the cusp, and with no guaranteed home field advantage, which is the only way they have a shot at the Super Bowl, they will not go far.  They had their time as “mice” to play, but the “cat” is returning.

Carolina Panthers:

The Panthers are not the “cat” I was referring to.  The Panthers are woefully thin on offense.  Steve Smith is still their best receiver and really he should be enjoying the twilight of his career somewhere, where he’d be the league’s best number 3.  Someone should also inform the Panthers that 2 very mediocre RBs does equal one good running attack.  Now on to Cam Newton.  This is where I play the ole game of single compliment followed by a barrage of criticisms.  It’s fun, especially when you play with your friends.  Cam Newton is a special talent that makes some really bad games actually interesting to watch.  His down side; he’s just not built to be a winner in the NFL.  He has the confidence of Charlie Brown looking to hit game winning field goal.  Matter fact his post game whimpering and terrible posture makes him Charlie Brown in general.  It’s what makes that commercial so funny when the kid is saying he’ll go pro and steal Cam’s starting spot.  If you look at Cam there’s a hint of him actually concerned by this.  If I had to guess, I see the Panthers getting 7 wins and not coming close to the playoffs.   No worries Cam will break some single game record, and make the season at least watchable.

New Orleans Saints:

These are the “cats” I was talking about.  The Saints are back and they’re going to be angry.  Last time a team had their name sullied in the dirt, the Patriots came back and set offensive records and almost had a perfect season (by the way this was the only time I found it appropriate to root for Eli.  This ranks up there with rooting for the Lakers when they were playing the Celtics in the finals recently and rooting for Charlie on Lost to die.  Seriously if you didn’t watch Lost week to week and instead watched it all at once, Charlie was the most annoying character.)  I think so many of the Saints players have a lot they want to prove now. I can’t see them winning the Super Bowl but they’ll probably win their division again, like 2011. Drew Brees is one of 5 QBs I count as on another level than the rest of the QBs in the league. All this points to the Saints having a bit of a revenge season and a bit of a fuck you attitude.  Don’t be surprised if they break the scoring record, and if you’re doing fantasy football, DRAFT SAINTS. The Saints will hopefully draft themselves some LBs and if so get about 11 wins make the playoffs as division champs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The Bucs are my Titans of the NFC.  As I’m writing this Tampa Bay is sealing the deal with receiving Revis for the 13^th pick.  Yes the Jets got a first round pick and a conditional but Revis in my mind is worth alot more than that. This isn’t as bad but it definitely ranks up there with the Lakers getting Pau Gasol for a George Foreman grill.  Somehow we have to be able to blame this on the Patriots.  Actually my deep seeded hate isn’t far off.  The Bucs traded their top CB, Talib for a Playboy magazine and a pack of Pop Rocks to the Patriots. So obviously not to be outdone the Jets wanted to prove they could be part of a of another bad deal, that somehow helps the Patriots even more (Division rival no longer having to worry about Revis, that’s how).  Besides this tilting of the pinball machine, the Bucs also have one of the more exciting young teams all around.  They have a really good running game with Martin and Blount.  Also Vincent Jackson and Williams are one of the better pairs of receivers in the game.  Josh Freeman has to be up for the Jonah Hill award of the NFL.  Guy lost weight last season and looks completely different.  Also his game got a little less funny and he was playing in bigger games with a little more talent it seemed (call this his Superbad to Moneyball transition).  So yea he’s Jonah Hill.  Look for the Bucs to be a dark horse in the NFC wild card race.  They’ll probably have a top 8 defense which usually equals double digit wins.

I’ll be back next week to drool over the possibilities of what Peyton Manning and Wes Welker will be able to do. And I’ll convince you that the Chiefs will go 500.  No seriously, that ones not a joke.

NFL OFFSEASON: MINORITY REPORT (AFC SOUTH)

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