The New England Patriots are on top of the list of contenders as usual. The Dallas Cowboys are right there with them at the top. Nevertheless, both teams are far from unbeatable. The NFL playoffs is wide open this year. There are many contenders in the mix that have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. On the other hand, they have fatal flaws as well.
Contenders
1. New England Patriots (11-2): +119 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 9-5
Winning is an institution in New England during the Belichick/ Brady era. They seem to always be at the top of the league and in the Super Bowl mix. Despite the stellar record, this team is not invincible. The loss of Rob Gronkowski is brutal. Of course, they can still score. Regardless, Gronkowski is an impossible matchup problem whose absence is magnified against the other top teams during the playoffs. The defense has also not been as good since they traded Jamie Collins in season to the Cleveland Browns. For these reasons, I do not think they will win the Super Bowl this season. Nevertheless, I obviously cannot count them out. Even without Gronk, Brady cut up the top statistical defense in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens, on Monday Night Football. They will probably have home field advantage again and be knocking on the door on a seventh Super Bowl berth since 2001. However, I would not put too much money on them this year.
- Dallas Cowboys (11-2): +102 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 4-1 Odds
Except for two games against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are undefeated this season. They are 7 point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15. Behind the best offensive line in football and the stellar play of a rookie backfield (Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott), the Cowboys have cruised this season. However, Prescott has not been as effective in recent weeks and the Giants manhandled him in Week 14. Naturally, the talk of switching Tony Romo back in is starting up again. In my opinion, Romo definitely gives the Cowboys the best chance to win this season. Dak has played great as a rookie, especially considering he was a 4th round pick. However, are we really sure he will be great or is he currently surrounded by elite offensive talent? I heard a great analogy made by former New York Giant, Amani Toomer, on sports radio a month ago. Marc Bulger had a strong stretch with the St. Louis Rams when they were the greatest show on turf. Time showed that Bulger was not really that good. The Rams let Warner walk for Bulger and Warner went on to lead the Cardinals to the Super Bowl. Romo has proven injury prone in recent years so I do not think he has much longer in his career. Dak will get his chance to be the franchise quarterback for the Cowboys soon enough. Romo gives the Cowboys the best chance to win this year. He is a much better pocket passer and the offense is much more explosive with him behind center. Even if he does not start, I can definitely see Romo coming in if Dak struggles in a playoff game. Of course, injury can also play a role. Drew Bledsoe went into the game in the AFC Championship Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers when Brady got injured in the Patriots first Super Bowl championship.
Besides the quarterback drama, the Cowboys have a couple of other question marks. Their defense has played very well despite the lack of elite talent or pass rushers. They have been helped by the offense controlling the ball and keeping them off the field. If the offense is stifled by a top defense in the playoffs, I doubt the defense can hold up for a long stretch of time. In addition, it needs Sean Lee to stay healthy. He seems to be everywhere. It is no surprise that the Cowboys defense has struggled in recent seasons as soon as Lee goes down with an injury. Next, the Cowboys have been snakebiten in the Romo era. They have lost in excruciatingly heartbreaking fashion in many big games. When they are punched in the face in the playoffs, it is still a question how they will react. No accomplishments in the regular season will alleviate that concern. They definitely deserve to be one of the favorites. I remain skeptical until I see them do it, which is not to say they cannot or will not. Nevertheless, I would not wager too much on them.
- Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1): +42 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 6-1 Odds
The Seahawks are still very dangerous with a core that has won a Super Bowl and should have won back to back titles. However, they are dealing with some serious issues. The first is their offensive line. It has been terrible and Russell Wilson has been running for his life all season. Accordingly, it has been inconsistent especially on the road. Next, the loss of Earl Thomas is crippling to their defense. He is arguably its most important player. In addition, the defense has not been nearly as dominant as it was in the season since they won the Super Bowl anyway. They do not have the same intense pass rush anymore. They are still deadly at home and have yet to lose there this season. However, they will not have home field. They are still a tough out in the playoffs but I do not see them getting to the Super Bowl this year.
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-3): +47 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 8-1
The Chiefs are not great in anything but do not have a fatal flaw in any area either. They are a solid but not great team. Perhaps in a season as wide open as this one, the lack of flaws instead of a lack of a gamebreaker will propel the Chiefs to a title. On the other hand, a big time playmaker may be emerging in the form of Tyreek Hill. He is an explosive return man and receiving threat. In addition, their defense has come up with huge plays all season and made some miraculous plays late in games to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat (e.g. Eric Berry’s game winning return of a Matt Ryan pass on a two point conversion that gave them a one point win). While it begs to question whether they can rely on such improbable plays and opponent error in judgment against the best teams in the playoffs, they have shown a knack for it this year. Sometimes, it is a trademark of a team of destiny. Even though they do not have a glaring flaw, the Chiefs have had trouble stopping the run this season. They will need to sure it up a little. If they have home field, I would love their chances to make it to the Super Bowl. Kansas City has some of the most passionate fans in the NFL. It provides an overwhelming home field advantage. However, the Patriots will probably claim home field advantage. Their odds improved from 12-1 to 8-1 since they dominated the Oakland Raiders. They would have been a better play a week ago but I definitely like them to make a strong run in the playoffs this year.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5): +61 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 10-1
The Steelers have the best trio in the league with Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. It is an indictment on head coach Mike Tomlin that they do not have a better record. The Steelers are on a 4 game winning streak and Bell has been red hot. However, I am not overly impressed by the streak. Only the win against the Giants at home was against a quality team. The Cleveland Browns are winless. The Steelers beat the Colts without Andrew Luck. The Buffalo Bills are dangerous some weeks but generally up and down and not a playoff team. Before the last month, the Steelers lost 4 straight against playoff teams. Their defense has played better against lesser competition but I am still skeptical if it is good enough for a deep playoff run. Although their offense can absolutely get hot and be unstoppable, it has been inconsistent on the road throughout the season. The Steelers are dangerous but I do not think they are consistent enough to get to the Super Bowl.
- Oakland Raiders (10-3): +38 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
The Raiders are back. They have their franchise quarterback in Derek Carr. Amari Cooper is an explosive talent who continues to get better. I also appreciate their resolve and guts in winning a lot of close games. Overall, the offensive talent is already at an elite level. However, they do not have the experience to make a deep playoff run. It showed in Kansas City as their offense was completely stifled. In fact, the Chiefs have accounted for two of the Raiders’ three losses. For this reason, I do not think they would get past the Patriots. In regards to their defense, Shelvin Mack is a stud and dominant pass rusher. However, he will need more help in the future to elevate the Raiders to a championship level defense. Once they get some big game experience and upgrade the defense more, they will be true Super Bowl contenders next year or the year after. It will just not be this year.
- New York Giants (9-4): +11 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 18-1
The Giants defense was one of the worst in the NFL and in its franchise history last season. They spent a fortune to upgrade it and it has paid off. It has played great recently and impressively shut down the high powered Cowboys defense. On the other hand, their offense does just enough to win. Their offensive line is terrible and will probably be their undoing in the playoffs if they are knocked out. However, the Giants have made two improbable runs to Super Bowl wins in the Eli Manning era. He is an unflappable leader who plays better in the big games. In addition, Odell Beckham Jr. is a true gamebreaker. His acceleration is uncanny. I have never seen a receiver take a simple slant, where most men would be tackled for a short gain, and turn it quickly into a long touchdown run (e.g. the game winning touchdown against the Cowboys). Of course, he is a double edged sword with his propensity to lose his cool during the game. With the second best record in the NFC, an excellent defense, and a quarterback who has already won two Super Bowls, they are a good value pick at 18-1.
- Green Bay Packers (7-6): +21 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 18-1
A month ago, the Packers were 4-6 after a crushing 42-24 loss to the Washington Redskins. Their defense continued to hemorrhage points. Their run as Super Bowl contenders under Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers seemed over. Difficult decisions appeared inevitable for the franchise. Since then, they have won three in a row, their defense has played much better, their offense woke up, and they crushed the Seahawks last week. It has been a great three run stretch but I still do not buy that they are back as a top team. They are more likely to miss the playoffs than make a Super Bowl. I still think the franchise is facing a fork in the row. Rodgers has definitely lost a step. They can still win another championship with him but they need a lot of improvements to their roster.
- Atlanta Falcons (8-5): +83 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 20-1
The Falcons have scored the most points in the NFL. They have scored 70 more points than the second highest scoring team, the Raiders. Their offense makes them dangerous. However, their defense is terrible and not close to being championship caliber. I do not see them making a deep run but I do like them more than Raiders or Packers.
- Detroit Lions (9-4): +27 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 25-1
No one is really paying attention to the Lions but they are having an excellent season. Matthew Stafford has proven the critics wrong. There was a suspicion that Stafford was a product of throwing to Calvin Johnson. Ironically, he has been a much better quarterback without Johnson. Having to force the ball to Johnson might have actually held him back all those years. He can now just read the defenses and throw to open receivers. The Lions have a solid defense and are competitive in every game. They have also made a habit out of coming back and winning games in the 4th quarter behind the play and leadership of Stafford. It is a great quality for a team to have. Outside of Detroit, no one will pick them and no one will probably follow them unless they make it to the divisional round (e.g. me). However, they could be a dark horse in this wide open field. Then again, they are currently the 2 seed in the NFC so they are only a dark horse because fans do not pay them any attention.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5): -3 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 40-1
The Buccaneers are a team of the future that is arriving. They have improved significantly as the season has progressed and are currently on a 5 game winning streak. Jameis Winston is a franchise quarterback and clearly the leader of the team. Mike Evans has developed into a top receiver. In addition, their defense has been very impressive during their streak. On the other hand, their offensive line and running game has been an issue. Like the Raiders, they probably do not have the experience. I do like them as a sleeper. While the Raiders are 14-1, the Bucs are 40-1.
- Washington Redskins (7-5-1): +13 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
The Redskins are definitely a dangerous team. Kirk Cousins may not be an elite quarterback but he is a pretty good one. When Jordan Reed is healthy and on the field, they have a special offense. With Reed, they will be a tough out if they make the playoffs. However, they will not be making a deep playoff run.
- Denver Broncos (8-5): +54 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
Trevor Semien has done fine as the quarterback. Although not very difficult, he has produced more than Peyton Manning during the playoffs. However, their running game has been a disaster. In addition, they have the most difficult schedule left in the NFL. However, their defense can still dominate and win them another title. The Dolphins (8-5) just lost their starting quarterback and the Ravens and Titans (both 7-6) are probably not winning 3 straights games to get to 10. As such, I am surprised the Broncos have 50-1 odds. It may be worth it to put some bucks on the defending champs with those long odds.
- Houston Texans (7-6): -45 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
They are lucky to be in the AFC South. Javadeon Clowney has emerged as a force. Unfortunately, Brock Osweiler is a complete disaster and the franchise is headed to nowhere unless he turns it around.
- Minnesota Vikings (7-6): +33 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 50-1
I was a strong believer in the Vikings in the early season when they were 5-0. Their dominant defense could definitely win them a Super Bowl. Unfortunately, it fell apart for them on offense. Their line is atrocious and Norv Turner quit as the offensive coordinator. They also waited too long to cut bait with kicker Blair Walsh, who never got over missing a point blank, game winning field goal against the Seahawks in the Wild Card Round last year.
- Baltimore Ravens (7-6): +42 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 60-1
They have one of the better defenses in the league. However, their offense is holding them back. Nevertheless, John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco have had a lot of success as a tandem. They played the Patriots tough in Foxboro and had chance to take the lead late in the game. If they get in the playoffs, I would not put it past them to go on a run. At 60-1, they may be worth the roll of the dice.
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7): -5 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 60-1
Terrible team elevated by a great player. They may make the playoffs but they need to come to grips with reality and stop trying to live off Andrew Luck’s greatness and provide him some real help.
- Miami Dolphins (8-5): -20 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 60-1
It is a tough break losing Ryan Tannehill. Nevertheless, the season has been a good step forward for the franchise even if they do not make it into the playoffs. They have dramatically improved during the season. Adam Gase looks like the right man for the head coaching job. He may have even salvaged Ryan Tannehill.
- Tennessee Titans (7-6): +15 Point Differential
Current Vegas Super Bowl Odds: 60-1
I am still not sold on Marcus Mariota as a franchise quarterback. However, he has had a solid second season and it has been a step in the right direction for the Titans. They are going nowhere near the Super Bowl this year. It would be great for their young team if they make the playoffs.
My Super Bowl Prediction: New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup I am Rooting for: Dallas Cowboys vs. Oakland Raiders (Return of Two Legendary Franchises)
Dark Horse Pick: Detroit Lions
Worth a Roll of the Dice: Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens
Sleeper: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
About Pat Wong
Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.