Fantasy Football 2016: Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football 2016: Quarterbacks

One of the most important considerations for your fantasy football league is the scoring system and the format. They make a huge difference in who you should draft and when. For this reason, I find positions as tiers more useful than straight player rankings since you can adjust your decision making process with tiers to match your unique scoring systems. Consequently, I have arranged my fantasy format in terms of tiers based on FantasyPros.com’s current NFL rankings and commented accordingly.

Most of the experts will advise you to wait on quarterbacks as there are plenty. In standard leagues with one quarterback, it makes perfect sense. As tempting as Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers may be, it is generally wiser to wait till the 5th or 6th round, maybe later, and just grab a quarterback from the back end of tier 2 who can put up monster production too. If you want to wait even later to draft a quarterback, there are plenty of young quarterbacks with significant upside that are great gambles. Draft a couple and hope that one of them has a breakout season. However, the equation changes if you are in a two quarterback league because the position will thin out a lot faster. In this situation, I prefer to have a top 5 quarterback. I definitely want at least a top 10 caliber quarterback as my QB1 before I am comfortable rolling the dice with a QB2 that has a solid floor and high upside. While I would definitely take the Tier 1 running back, Tier 1 wide receiver, or Rob Gronkowski at tight end over every QB except maybe Cam Newton, I begin to prefer a stud QB when we start to dip into Tier 2 of those positions. I assume most fantasy players are in a recurring league and they will know when they will need to pull the trigger on a QB.

Without further ado, here are the tiers with my comments.

 

Aaron_rodgers_2014

Tier 1

QB                         Team

Cam Newton      CAR

Aaron Rodgers  GB

Russell Wilson    SEA

Andrew Luck      IND

Drew Brees         NO

The top 5 are pretty much sure things for elite fantasy production at QB. Cam Newton is the perfect fantasy quarterback. He threw for 35 touchdowns and rushed for another 10. He combines the production of a QB1 with the production of a RB2. He is definitely the top fantasy quarterback. Could he actually be better? It will be difficult to top last season but his best playmaking receiver, Kelvin Benjamin, is returning from injury and Kevin Funchess continues to improve. The only negative is that he runs hard and takes a beating. However, he is a big man who has been able to take it so far. I expect another monster year. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the game. While he also gets some rushing yards, he obviously cannot match Newton’s rushing touchdowns. The Seahawks defense gets most of the attention in Seattle. Russell Wilson is quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. With his ability to pass and rush, he is as productive as any quarterback in the league outside of Newton. Andrew Luck had no luck last year. Actually, he just had no offensive line. It is ridiculous how incompetent the Colts management has been in assembling a credible line to protect their franchise player. They finally invested in the line so hopefully it is at least average. I expect a big comeback year from Luck. T.Y. Hilton is an explosive deep threat and Donte Moncrief is a candidate to have a breakout year as the second receiver. In addition, an underrated part of Luck’s game is his ability to run and tally some rushing touchdowns. Drew Brees is just consistently great. His advanced age is a consideration but he has not showed any dramatic signs of decline.

 

Big Ben

Tier 2

Carson Palmer   ARI

Ben Roethlisberger          PIT

Eli Manning        NYG

Philip Rivers       SD

Tom Brady          NE

Blake Bortles      JAC

The Tier 2 quarterbacks either do not have as much of a ceiling as Tier 1 or have a significant issue/ deficiency. Carson Palmer is terrible in the big game but he was great in the regular season last year. He is surrounded by as much offensive talent at the skill positions as any quarterback in the league: a trio of wide receivers that is as good as any in the NFL, a potential top 5 running back, and an excellent back up running back. He is a little bit older but I expect him to put up statistics. However, he does not excite me and I would not mind waiting and taking any other QB left at the end of the run on this tier over him. Ben Roethlisberger was injured last year and threw too many picks. He has taken a beating over his career so I am not completely confident he can play all 16 games but he is tough and should still play most of them. He has tier 1 potential because he has the consensus top fantasy pick in receiver, Antonio Brown; the potential top running back, Le’Veon Bell, who was lost for most of the season last year but should play most of this season after an initial three game suspension; a talented young receiving core behind Antonio Brown, and a promise to go for two point conversions all the time. As such, he would be my top pick in this tier. Eli Manning is a better big game quarterback than a regular season one. Nevertheless, he generally racks up stats and has Odell Beckham Jr. Philip Rivers produces every year despite a questionable supporting cast put around him. Tom Brady will miss the first four games but will still return to throw 30+ touchdowns. Count on it. I would mark Blake Bortles as a potential breakout player but he already threw for 35 touchdowns last year. He is the quarterback in an explosive offense with a young, explosive duo at receiver, Allen Robison and Allen Hurns. In a dynasty league, he would be my first pick in this tier. Regardless, I would be very comfortable with him as my QB1.

I prefer Roethlisberger, Brady or Bortles in this tier but would also just take whoever is left for me to draft.

 

Derek Carr

Tier 3

Kirk Cousins       WAS

Tyrod Taylor      BUF

Tony Romo        DAL (UPDATE: Out first 6-10 weeks of the season)

Derek Carr          OAK

Matthew Stafford           DET

Jameis Winston                TB

Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ

Marcus Mariota               TEN

Andy Dalton       CIN

Ryan Tannehill  MIA

Matt Ryan          ATL

Jay Cutler            CHI

Alex Smith          KC

Joe Flacco           BAL

Brock Osweiler  HOU

Tier 3 quarterbacks still have a ton of potential. A couple of them may even end the season as solid QB1s. However, the question marks begin here. Kirk Cousins had a great, breakout season last year. Nevertheless, do you really trust him to do it again? I would personally avoid him and grab another QB. Tyrod “Tygod” Taylor could end up as a top 10 fantasy quarterback or better because of the combination of his arms and legs plus explosive playmakers at the skill positions in Buffalo. On the other hand, he has not done it for a full season and I do not trust Rex Ryan to develop a young quarterback. Paying attention to the offensive side of the ball would be an improvement for Ryan. I would avoid Tony Romo. He is a major injury concern and the Cowboys want to run the ball more for time of possession and keeping Romo healthy. As an update, Romo is out 6-10 weeks. Dak Prescott makes for an interesting draft pick now. He has been lighting it up in preseason but it is only preseason. Of course, I would take every QB in this tier over him. I would probably take Jimmy Garrapolo over him in a redraft league. In a dynasty, Prescott has a chance to be the long term quarterback if he plays well in Romo’s absence. Romo has a long list of injuries. In addition, he is older. At some point, the Cowboys will need to move on. It could come sooner or later if Prescott turns out to be the real deal. Derek Carr threw 32 touchdowns last year in a breakout season. The Raiders offense has a chance to be explosive this year. Receiver Amari Cooper dealt with plantar fasciitis in his rookie season and still put up representative numbers. I expect Carr and Cooper to take another big step forward. I would love Carr as a QB2 and be comfortable if I he was my QB1. Calvin Johnson retired so Matthew Stafford will get discounted. I still like him as an undervalued QB2. The Lions will still throw a lot. I am big on Jameis Winston as a breakout candidate. Despite his maturity issues in college, he displayed none of it in his rookie season. He is a brilliant talent and great leader. The Bucs have put a lot of playmakers around him and I expect him to take a huge leap forward in his sophomore season. In a dynasty league, I put him on top of this tier along with Carr although I favor Winston because he has a little better physical tools and talent.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career year. I expect regression but he should still be productive as a QB2. He has great chemistry and entering his second season with receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Matt Forte is a versatile running back who will help too. Marcus Mariota has the talent to be a top fantasy back as a dual threat. However, I am not impressed with his supporting cast. I would avoid Andy Dalton unless he is a last resort. He has a high floor but very low ceiling because his team plays ultraconservative to prevent him from making mistakes. Ryan Tannehill is decent but has not broken out. Miami had high expectations for him but he has disappointed. In my opinion, he is the most likely to lose his job in this tier because of the frustration the Dolphins generally have of him. On the other hand, I think Matt Ryan is undervalued. He generally plays in a good offense and Julio Jones is as good as any receiver in the league. I expect Ryan to have a bounce back season and at least be an excellent QB2. Jay Cutler is a bit of a tease but still has a laser rocket arm. He has a talented receiver core too. He will have his big games and his duds. Alex Smith is a sneaky fantasy asset. He does not rack up a lot of yardage or passing touchdowns. However, he is consistently productive and adds value as a runner even though he gets little credit for it. Joe Flacco is a great quarterback playing for an excellent franchise. I expect him and his team to have rebound seasons. However, his ceiling is generally as a solid QB2. Brock Osweiler looked great for a stretch with the Broncos then defenses caught up with him. He has a chance to have a complete breakout season with a big arm and great playmakers in Houston, especially Deandre Hopkins who is a top receiver.

I rank this tier differently. Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor would be my top two depending on whether you want to go for the upside with Tygod’s rushing abilities. Personally, I prefer to play on Winston’s breakout ability after Carr. I still like Matt Ryan so I have him as my fourth. I would take Alex Smith’s consistency next then Stafford’s big arm and volume passing afterwards. I guess I would then go with Romo if all the others are taken. The rest of the QBs offer value but I would hope I have a more reliable QB1 before I needed to draft one of them.

 

Butt Fumble

Tier 4

Jimmy Garoppolo            NE

Teddy Bridgewater          MIN

Sam Bradford    PHI

Robert Griffin    CLE

Blaine Gabbert  SF

Jared Goff           LA

Mark Sanchez    DEN

Carson Wentz    PHI

Tier 4 is scraping the bottom of the barrel. I expect Jimmy Garoppolo to produce for the four games Brady is out but obviously Brady will be back in as the starting QB for the Patriots afterwards. Bridgewater is ok but he has no upside. Sam Bradford could have a big week or two but is a big time disappointment in his career. I do not expect much from either of the rookies, Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. The QB situation in Denver looks awful. Mark Sanchez has not looked good and it is questionable whether he will even start or be on the roster. If you believe in Chip Kelly, I can see taking a flier on Blaine Gabbert. Kelly did make Nick Foles look great for a season.

 

For other positions, please see:

Running Backs: /2016/08/24/fantasy-football-2016-running-backs/

Wide Receivers: /2016/08/25/fantasy-football-2016-wide-receivers/

Tight Ends, Kickers, and Defenses: /2016/08/26/fantasy-football-2016-tight-ends-kickers-and-defenses/

Pat Wong

About Pat Wong

Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies. Patrick is also a passionate foodie. He is Yelp Elite for three years in a row and shares his great finds in New York and his travels.

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