Tight Ends
Overview
Tight ends are a tricky position in fantasy football. In the real game, they are very important for blocking. If they do not block adequately, they will not be on the field for receptions. If their offensive line is terrible, they may have to stay at the line to block instead of running patterns for receptions. Obviously, there are no fantasy points for pancakes or protecting the quarterback. Tight ends that perform like wide receivers are fantasy gold. For this reason, Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski represent the new age tight ends. They are clearly above the rest of the field. Besides those two, tight ends generally do not provide enough predictable point differential from their peer group during the fantasy season to justify their average draft position. Consequently, it makes sense to just pick a tight end in the later rounds of the draft if you cannot get one of the top two who you know for certain will produce like a wide receiver.
Tier 1
Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints)
Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots)
Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
Jordan Cameron (Cleveland Browns)
Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys)
Jimmy Graham provided one of the highest point differentials above the next best player at his position last season. Accordingly, a fantasy owner can justify taking Graham in the 1st round. Some owners may even be willing to take him over the top 5 running backs. Although I understand the logic, I do not completely agree. I would not take Graham over Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, or Eddie Lacy. I would take Graham after those three players are drafted. If Gronkowski is healthy, he may be even better than Graham. However, his injury history is not something you can dismiss. He is already a risk to miss Week 1. Consequently, I would not take Gronkowski until the 3rd round. After Graham and Gronkowski go, I will not even consider taking a tight end until the 6th round. On the other hand, I really like Julius Thomas. He has elite athleticism and plays with Peyton Manning. Be broke out last season with 12 touchdowns. Nevertheless, he was plagued by injuries last year and still plays in an offense with a lot of offensive weapons which limits his targets. In my opinion, someone will reach on him and I am not willing to do the same. Jordan Cameron is another tight end with a lot of upside. He was a trendy pick last year and had a breakout season with 80 receptions, 917 yards, and 7 touchdowns. However, those stats are not great enough for me to reach on him either. The hope is that he progresses even more this year. With the expected suspension of Josh Gordon, Cameron will likely be the beneficiary of more targets. Vernon Davis has always been one of the more athletic tight ends in the league. However, his fantasy value is highly dependent on touchdowns. He hauled in 13 TDs last season so he put up the related fantasy points. However, he does not get enough receptions each season (52 last year and only over 70 once in his career) to provide predictable production. Accordingly, he often scares me away. Jason Witten is very solid as Tony Romo’s safety net. On the other hand, he does not have the TD upside to be at the top of the list. His ceiling is capped but so is his floor.
Tier 2
Charles Clay (Miami Dolphins)
Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers)
Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)
Martellus Bennett (Chicago Bears)
Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins)
Ladarius Green (San Diego Chargers)
Dennis Pitta (Baltimore Ravens)
Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings)
The tight end position thins out fast. There are a few of the players in this tier that I like. However, I am fine waiting to see if they fall to the teen rounds as I am not going to pass up on value in other positions to take ones of these guys earlier. Charles Clay emerged as a good fantasy tight end last season. When you are willing to make this pick is dependent on whether you believe Ryan Tannehill will break out as a star QB. If he does, Clay will be one of the beneficiaries. Greg Olsen already plays with a star QB. Without a strong receiving core, Olsen should put up similar or slightly better production as last season. Antonio Gates is no longer a top tight end due to regression with age. Nevertheless, he still put up decent numbers for a tight end last year. Martellus Bennett is a talented tight end in a high powered offense with the strong armed Jay Cutler throwing to him. I like him and his situation. However, Cutler will go more to his two stud wide receivers than Bennett which limits his upside. Jordan Reed had a solid rookie campaign and is primed for a breakout season. He has the highest upside of any of the tight ends in this tier. He needs to go out on the field to prove it. He is a trendy pick this year like Jordan Cameron was last season. Ladarius Green is similar to Reed. He has freakish talent but is more unproven. The Chargers hope he is the next Antonio Gates. There is a lot of hype on both. Dennis Pitta has always been a good tight end but never a great one. As such, he will give some production but do not expect him to break out. Kyle Rudolph is another gifted tight end. His QB situation is uncertain but he should be an excellent safety net for either QB and can thrive in Norv Turner’s system.
Tier 3
Jared Cook (St. Louis Rams)
Delanie Walker (Tennessee Titans)
Coby Fleener (Indianapolis Colts)
Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles)
Garrett Graham (Houston Texans)
Scott Chandler (Buffalo Bills)
Marcedes Lewis (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)
Eric Ebron (Detroit Lions)
Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis Colts)
Levine Toilolo (Atlanta Falcons)
Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals)
This list has good tight ends but most of them lack upside to move to the higher tiers. They are good picks at the very end of the draft to plug in a decent player. The Colts tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, are very talented but they limit each other’s numbers. I have really liked Fleener since he was drafted out of Stanford. Andrew Luck and he were a great combination in college. As a result, I am a little surprised they have not been a little better in the NFL. He is a good example that shows you should not reach on a tight end no matter how high you are on them until they actually prove it. Regardless, I am more than comfortable rolling the dice with him again late if I punt the tight end position. Zach Ertz is very talented tight end. He has looked good in preseason. I am also a believer in Chip Kelly’s system and QB Nick Foles so I think he is in a great position to succeed. If other fantasy owners reach on Jordan Reed and Ladarius Green and you are left without selecting a tight end yet, Ertz may be just as good of a bet to break out for you and may slip under the radar with the other two getting all the attention. Travis Kelce is a talented, second year tight end on the Chiefs that has really stood out in the preseason showing explosive playmaking ability as evidenced by his 2 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown in his first preseason game. However, he has not overtaken Anthony Fasano for the starting tight end job so he is a risk. The situation is definitely worth monitoring. Eric Ebron was the first tight end drafted for his pass catching ability. He is in a good situation as part of a pass happy offense. However, he will not be a target beast while Calvin Johnson is on the same team. Moreover, he is struggling with blocking so I do not expect a big rookie season. Heath Miller is better in real life as a tight end than he is in fantasy. He has had a very average record as a fantasy performer and I expect it to stay the same. He is the perfect example of a tight end that may be playing great for his team but not for your fantasy team.
Tier 4
Brent Celek (Philadelphia Eagles)
Zach Miller (Seattle Seahawks)
Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati Bengals)
Mychal Rivera (Oakland Raiders)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Brandon Bostick (Green Bay Packers)
Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions)
Jace Amaro (New York Jets)
John Carlson (Arizona Cardinals)
Larry Donnell (New York Giants)
Benjamin Watson (New Orleans Saints)
Owen Daniels (Baltimore Ravens)
Rob Housler (Arizona Cardinals)
Luke Willson (Seattle Seahawks)
Anthony Fasano (Kansas City Chiefs)
Ed Dickson (Carolina Panthers)
Josh Hill (New Orleans)
Most of these tight ends will be candidates to help you cover for your bye week. You will be able to pick them up from the waiver wire. I really liked Jace Amaro as a draft pick for the Jets since he was a great receiving tight end in college at Texas A&M. However, he is having trouble adjusting to a NFL offense and I do not expect much in his rookie season. Owen Daniels has been one of my favorite replacements for bye weeks over the years. He is in a good situation with Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens. Ryan Housler has a ton of talent. He was one of my sleeper picks last year but was a bust because he was not used by Bruce Arien. While he surprisingly started in the last preseason game, he will not be featured in Arien’s offense. He is a player that would benefit from a change in scenery.
Defenses and Kickers
Defense Overview
The rules of the modern NFL are ridiculously tilted to the advantage of the offenses. For example, corner backs can no longer touch the wide receivers and pass rushers are not allowed to breathe on quarterbacks anymore. Accordingly, it is very difficult for teams to play great defense. For this reason, the upside of drafting a defense in fantasy football has been greatly diminished. A good fantasy defense is not necessarily one that stops the opposing offenses the best since points allowed are only one element in the scoring system for fantasy defenses. It is much better to have a defense that creates more turnovers than one that allows fewer points to the opponent. A team’s strength of schedule is also very important. The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of these factors last season. They have a talented defense that generated turnovers and really fed on the soft schedule. However, it is difficult to predict the strength of schedule. You can look at last season’s standings as a guide. However, the NFL has parity and the quality of most team fluctuates significantly year over year. Injury risk is another consideration for defenses. While you can always start a defense, except for its bye week, as a team will always be able to field a defense for each week, you actually expose yourself to more injury risk than less injury risk. For most positions you draft, you will only be exposed to the risk that the individual player will get hurt. When you draft a defense, you expose yourself to the injury risk of every player on that defense. The loss of a single player can be detrimental to that defense. My perspective on drafting fantasy defenses has not changed from last season. The risk and reward is not worth it. It is difficult to analyze all the unpredictable variables that are needed to have a top defense. Moreover, the point difference advantage of getting it correct is not significant enough to reach for a defense. My strategy for drafting defenses in fantasy football is to not even consider drafting any defense until at least the 10th round. Unless I really like a defense, I will wait till the 12th round or later to draft a defense. In addition, I try to draft a solid defense with an ease of schedule in the top half of the league in order to have a decent option to start most weeks. Next, I will look at the waiver wire each week during the season to see if there is a weak offense I can stream against.
Kicker Overview
My thoughts on kickers remain the same and will never change. Kickers do not matter in the draft. I typically wait till the last round to draft one. Moreover, it is not necessary to draft one at all as you can pick them off the waiver wire. Top fantasy kickers are tough to predict as it is much more about field goal attempts than accuracy. The ideal situation for a fantasy kicker is to play on a good offense but one that is not too good. Obviously, if an offense is terrible, a kicker will not get enough opportunities to kick field goals. If it is too good, it will hurt a kicker’s fantasy value as well. A great offense will end its deep drives with touchdowns. As such, its kicker will have extra points instead of field goals. For fantasy prosperity, a kicker needs its offense to be good enough to drive the ball into the other side but only far enough to set him up for 40 and 50 yard field goals, which result in the most fantasy points. As it is very difficult to predict which offenses will meet the criteria, it is impossible to pick and draft a top kicker. As a result, it makes sense to just draft a kicker for his matchup in week 1 of the season then use the waiver wire to pick up kickers throughout the season based on matchups. Do not be the guy who thinks he can outthink the system and draft a kicker before the end of the draft.
Defense Tiers
Below are the tiers broken out via projected fantasy points from Pro Football Focus via Yahoo. In parentheses, I have the strength of schedule with (1) being the easiest schedule based on the finish of their opponents last season.
Tier 1
Seattle Seahawks (27)
Carolina Panthers (11)
St. Louis Rams (30)
Cincinnati Bengals (23)
Kansas City Chiefs (26)
San Francisco 49ers (29)
The Seahawks are clearly the best defense in the NFL. Considering how difficult it is to play defense now, it is remarkable how they were able to completely dominate the highest scoring offense of All Time in the Denver Broncos during the Super Bowl. They arguably had the greatest defensive performance of All Time in the Championship Game and deserve credit as one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. They are loaded and returning intact for this season. Although they have a difficult schedule, it is mainly due to playing in the best division in football. Although they are great teams, they win by playing excellent defense instead of fielding great offenses. As such, the strength of schedule will not hurt the numbers of their defense. The Panthers are another strong defense. They have one of the best front 7s in the NFL that generates a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They also have a reasonable schedule. The difference between the Seahawks and Panthers are that the Seahawks send out the Legion of Boom as the secondary. The Rams are a rising defense in the tough NFC West. They have a ridiculous number of pass rushers. Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach that has always fielded very good defenses. I like the Rams defense a lot going into this season. The Bengals also have a very good defense. The team does not get a lot of hype but they are very balanced on both sides of the ball with a lot of playmakers. The Chiefs and 49ers are two teams that I foresee regressing. The Chiefs will have a much tougher schedule after turning it around from one of the worst teams in the NFL to a playoff team. Of course, their defense also has to go up against Peyton Manning and his Broncos twice. The 49ers have arguably been the best team in football the last three seasons despite not winning the Super Bowl. I believe the deep playoff runs will take a lot out of them for this season. Moreover, they are starting to lose players to free agency due to success (e.g. Donte Whitner). They also lost one of their star linebackers, Navarro Bowman, for the beginning of the season due to the injury suffered in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers are due for a decline.
Tier 2
New England Patriots (23)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14)
Arizona Cardinals (8)
Denver Broncos (31)
Chicago Bears (18)
Cleveland Browns (7)
Green Bay Packers (20)
The Patriots have not had a good defense in years. Nevertheless, the coaching of Bill Belichick and feeding against the young QBs in their division helped them be a higher fantasy scoring defense last season. Nevertheless, they were still a very average defense and got torched by any good QB. They significantly added to their secondary during the offseason by adding cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. Revis was the best cornerback in the game before his injury during his final season with the New York Jets. He is a true shutdown corner and is a game changer. It is scary to think how much Revis will help Belichick’s schemes. The Buccaneers gave up a lot of actual points. However, they also generated a lot of turnovers and sacks to be fantasy relevant. The Arizona Cardinals were one of my favorite defenses going into last season. They had everything needed for a great defense, including a shutdown cornerback in Patrick Peterson. Unfortunately, they lost linebackers Karlos Dansby to free agency and All-Pro Daryl Washington for the season due to a marijuana suspension. Those losses will definitely hurt their defense but I expect them to still be good. The Broncos went from one of the best defenses in the league to one of the worst last year. Accordingly, the Broncos made some huge additions to the defense by signing pass rusher and linebacker Damarcus Ware, cornerback Aqi Talib, and safety TJ Ward during the offseason in order to make another run at the Super Bowl. While Ware has been regressing in recent years, it will be interesting to see him and Von Miller on opposite sides of the field rushing the quarterback. If they are both on top of their games, it is a devastating combination. The preseason injury to linebacker Danny Trevathan hurts but he will return during the season. There may also be chemistry issues with so many new pieces at the beginning of the season to couple with the injury that may cause a slow start. For these reasons, I would not expect the world from them this season for fantasy purposes.
The Bears are another defense that regressed dramatically last year. They focused on rebuilding their defensive line which included signing aging but still productive pass rusher, Jared Allen. The Bears will be better but their upside is limited with the offenses of the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions in their division. The Browns made a lot of offseason moves, including drafting QB Johnny Manziel which is getting them a lot of media coverage. The Browns have been a trendy pick to break out as a team in recent years but have disappointed. In terms of their defense, they selected the best cornerback in the draft in Justin Gilbert. They also signed key veterans, linebacker Karlos Dansby and safety Donte Whitner. However, they lost safety TJ Ward in free agency to the Broncos. The Browns are an intriguing team that has a chance to be better. I like but do not love their defense. The Packers are obviously known for their offense. They have not had a great defense since winning the Super Bowl. They signed Julius Peppers to play linebacker opposite of star Clay Matthews Jr. However, they need much improved play from defenders they already have on the team such as BJ Raji. Their offense should be better but not great. With their elite offense, it may be all the Packers need to be a title contender.
Tier 3
Philadelphia Eagles (13)
Buffalo Bills (19)
Miami Dolphins (21)
Tennessee Titans (2)
Baltimore Ravens (5)
New Orleans Saints (10)
Houston Texans (3)
New York Giants (7)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10)
There is no defense I love in this tier. However, there are teams with favorable schedules so one of these defenses is likely to be the one I draft since I will not burn a better draft pick on a defense. I am comfortable choosing from the pool that is left. They should be productive against favorable matchups. A couple of teams on the list, the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers, have been known for great defense but both franchises are trying to rebuild with young players. They were in the middle of the pack last season for fantasy purposes. If they progress, they can one of the better fantasy defenses especially with their schedules. The Houston Texans are another team that jumps out. They had one of the better defenses in recent seasons before they had a complete meltdown on all sides of the ball last year. They took Javadeon Clowney number 1 to put next to JJ Watt. The two defensive linemen will cause havoc against opponents. They have other good players on defense too. Another key is keeping linebacker Brian Cushing healthy. It is no coincidence that the defense went downhill after he got hurt each of the last two seasons. The Texans could be an excellent comeback pick especially if they are undervalued and fall in your draft. The Giants are a proud franchise that had a rough 2013 season. They need to keep their defenders healthy. The biggest key is the health of Jason Pierre Paul. He is one of the most dominant lineman in football and the Giants need him to play that way. They also signed an excellent cornerback, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, in the offseason. This defense can rebound to be good this year.
Tier 4
Minnesota Vikings (12)
Detroit Lions (17)
Indianapolis Colts (1)
New York Jets (24)
Washington Redskins (16)
Jacksonville Jaguars (4)
These defenses should only be started against very favorable matchups. The Lions have a very talented, powerful defensive line but they have never been a great defense. The Colts have the easiest schedule but they do not have a good defense. Their best player, Robert Mathis, is also suspended to start the season. The Jets once had a great secondary and weak defensive line. They now have a weak secondary and great defensive line. The questionable secondary does not give them much of a chance to excel.
Tier 5
Oakland Raiders (32)
Atlanta Falcons (22)
San Diego Chargers (29)
Dallas Cowboys (15)
These defenses should be avoided. They are only a fill in if you have a bye week and are desperate to put in a defense and cross your fingers that they do not score negative points. The Cowboys are the consensus worst defense in the NFL. They were dreadful last year and got worse.
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Ref A: A5DA5043D4674A20B8F4937CA8132E4C Ref B: HKGEDGE0412 Ref C: 2019-11-01T03:30:59Z
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Ref A: 4AA0B1FDD7DB46F88867F80EE1341F87 Ref B: HK2EDGE1009 Ref C: 2019-11-01T08:47:24Z
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Ref A: 71A12CF4242D456F8FEB203493CA6120 Ref B: STOEDGE0910 Ref C: 2019-11-01T15:04:54Z
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Ref A: A77451AC94244902951EB085070658EA Ref B: HK2EDGE0309 Ref C: 2019-11-01T20:06:38Z
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Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.
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