Quarterbacks
Overview
More than other fantasy sports, individual league formats can cause a drastic difference in how you should draft for your league. The two most important factors are scoring system and the amount of positions you need to draft in your league. As such, make sure you review and understand your leagues scoring system and how many players you need to start at each position before you draft. Nevertheless, I have found that the best way to prepare for any draft is to break each position in tiers and to adjust which position you draft in each round based on your league format. Similar to last year, I will be breaking down each fantasy position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF and special teams) by tiers starting with QBs.
For QBs, I have the same thoughts about the position as I had last year. The biggest factor in your draft strategy should depend on whether your league allows you to start one QB or two QBs. If you can only start 1 QB, I have never found drafting a top QB in the first two rounds worth it. One year, I drafted Peyton Manning in the first round after he threw 49 TDs the year before. I also stashed Drew Brees as it was his first year in New Orleans after he signed as a free agent but suffered a horrific injury to end his San Diego Charger career. I ended up having two QBs with similar, elite production but could only start one of them. I tried drafting a QB again in the first round a few years ago in a one QB league and it did not give me the point differential I was looking for with the high draft pick I used. In a one QB league, I highly recommend passing on the top quarterbacks and trying to get a second tier QB or even a third tier QB with upside instead.
Tier 1
Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)
Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)
Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)
These quarterbacks get it done year over year and should provide elite production this season if they stay healthy. Peyton Manning and his Broncos set offensive records last year. While he will probably not throw 55 touchdowns again, he should throw at least 40 touchdowns this season. He has his weapons back and they will be together a third year. As such, his supporting cast knows what to expect. The Broncos lost Eric Decker to free agency but the signing of Emmanuel Sanders is a quality replacement. Manning and his offense will continue to roll. Drew Brees is right there with Manning. Brees and Sean Payton are a highly successful QB/coach combination. They have a ton of weapons and are very difficult to stop. They are nearly impossible to defend when they play at home in New Orleans. Manning and Brees are quarterbacks I would consider taking in the late first round or early second round in a 2 QB league. Matthew Stafford is a reckless quarterback with powerful arm. He is just like Brett Favre. While he needs to make better decisions to progress as a QB, his cavalier attitude and willingness to chuck in a pass happy offense is great for fantasy production. Moreover, he still has Calvin Johnson and running backs that are great at catching the ball out of the backfield. In addition, the Lions signed a reliable wide receiver, Golden Tate, and drafted tight end Eric Ebron. As a result, Stafford is in great position to put up monster stats again. Of course, Aaron Rodgers may be the best player in the sport. He is the perfect quarterback with his cannon arm, intelligence, and mobility. While I would pick him first in real life to start my NFL franchise, the Packers also know how valuable he is. Consequently, the Packers need to protect the franchise. For this reason, they will run the ball more with stud running back, Eddie Lacy, to help keep Rodgers healthy. Rodgers’ statistics and fantasy value will be hurt a little. Stafford and Rodgers are great second round picks in a 2 QB league. Although Matt Ryan gets criticism for not carrying his team to the Super Bowl yet, he puts up great statistics year over year. He arguably has the best wide receiver duo in football with Julio Jones and Roddy White. The retirement of Hall of Fame tight end, Tony Gonzalez, will hurt but not too much. He has plenty of weapons. I expect him to have another big season and the Falcons to turn it around after a terrible 2013 season. He is a great value if you can get him in the third round.
Tier 2
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)
Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)
Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)
Most of these quarterbacks are definitely Tier 1 caliber quarterbacks and may end up there at the end of the season. They are great third or fourth round picks in a two QB leauge. Philip Rivers is an excellent quarterback. He rebounded in a big way after the Chargers got him some help last year. He formed an extremely productive connection with rookie, Keenan Allen, at the end of last season. Accordingly, I expect Rivers’s superb production to continue. Cam Newton is a great fantasy QB because of his ability to pass and run. However, the Panthers are not providing him the complementary weapons necessary to be an elite offense. While Steve Smith is an aging superstar, they did nothing to even replace his diminished production after he signed with the Baltimore Ravens. Andrew Luck has shown he is the future. He has carried an average team into the playoffs in his first two seasons. While other quarterbacks get more credit for their mobility, Luck is also very athletic and rushes for touchdowns when necessary. Reggie Wayne is returning this season and the Colts signed Hakeem Nicks hoping he will find some of his game when he was an elite wide receiver. Luck will have more weapons this year. However, his offensive line is a problem. Owner Jim Irsay forced an in season trade last year to bring in running back Trent Richardson for a first round pick that could have been used to draft a lineman. The line needs to step up and stop Luck getting clobbered. Regardless of criticism of Tony Romo for poor play in pressure situations, he is a very productive QB with great weapons. One of those weapons is the explosive Dez Bryant. More importantly, it appears the Cowboys finally built an offensive line that can protect him. Their defense looks terrible so Romo’s stats may get an additional boost since he has to chuck it during shootouts. Tom Brady is an All-Time great. However, he is older and he does not have the weapons he used to have. I would actually pass on him this year but he has been great his entire career and deserves respect in this tier. My favorite QB in this tier is actually Nick Foles. He did great last season after taking the starting job from Michael Vick during the season. He ran Chip Kelly’s system very well. He threw for a lot of production and only turned the ball over 2 times. He held onto the ball too long at times to prevent turnovers but I expect him to progress in that department too. The Eagles’ fast pace offense will help him put up big stats again. I have him in the second tier because I want to see him do it for a full season. In addition, the loss of Desean Jackson to free agency will hurt. He is explosive and may be the best deep threat in the game. Regardless, I would be very comfortable with Foles as my quarterback.
Tier 3
Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)
Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburg Steelers)
Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)
Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)
These quarterbacks are very good values if you did not get one of the QBs in the first two tiers. In a one QB league, there is a good chance one of these QBs would be my first QB. RGIII is the biggest question mark. If he can stay healthy, he has Tier 1 potential. However, it is difficult for him to stay healthy with his size and how he plays. The Redskins could change his style but then you would need to see how effective he will be. The early buzz is that backup Kirk Cousins is picking up and running Jay Gruden’s offense much better than RGIII. Of course, I would be shocked if Griffin was not the starter. Russell Wilson is a tremendous quarterback with great leadership skills. He is in for a big time career. However, his fantasy value is capped due to the Seahawks’ run first offensive strategy. If the Steelers are good, Ben Roethlisberger’s fantasy value decreases since they win with running the football and playing great defense. When they are bad, Big Ben needs to throw it a lot more and racks up stats. He is a very productive player regardless but it is difficult to predict his production so he is in this tier. Colin Kaepernick is in a similar position although he has more upside with his elite pass and run combination as a player. He plays on a great team with a great defense and a very good running game. On the other hand, the defense may not be as good without Navarro Bowman at the start of the season. With the addition of receiver Stevie Johnson and Michael Crabtree healthy to start the season, Kaepernick’s fantasy production may get a healthy boost. Nevertheless, he plays in a division with great defenses so the stiff competition takes away some of his value. Andy Dalton deserves criticism for his playoff failures. Nevertheless, he throws for a lot of stats which is enhanced by throwing to one of the game’s best wide receivers in AJ Green. Marvin Jones has also emerged as a productive receiver. If Dalton falls to you in the right spot like the 6th round, he holds a lot of value. Last season, he produced Tier 2 stats. Alex Smith is a nice player but he does not have the higher upside of the other QBs. Jay Cutler has been one of my favorites in the past as an under the radar QB2. The emergence of Alshon Jeffery has given him two dynamic wide receivers. More importantly, the offensive line did a much better job protecting Cutler last season. In previous seasons, he had taken a beating since joining the Bears.
Tier 4
Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)
Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)
Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)
EJ Manuel (Buffalo Bills)
Eli Manning (New York Giants)
Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)
Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)
Geno Smith (New York Jets)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (Houston Texans)
Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)
This group is comprised of the young QBs looking to make a name for themselves and the veterans who are trying to rebound. A few of them may turn into great QB2s this season. Nevertheless, I am not very sure on which ones they will be but these players are worth a gamble around the 8th round or later. Ryan Tannehill is a very talented QB that could be a great sleeper pick this season. There was a lot of turmoil in Miami in his second year. However, they have added weapons around him by signing receiver Mike Wallace last offseason and Knowshon Moreno this past offseason. Tannehill could be breaking out in his third year. Eli Manning is another name that jumps out. He is a two time Super Bowl Champion and a very productive quarterback over his career. Last season, his offensive line collapsed, his best receiver in Victor Cruz was lost in the middle of the season, and Hakeem Nicks decided to take it easy and stay away from injury leading up to free agency rather than try. A lot of things went wrong last season. Manning gets Cruz back. The Giants drafted talented wide receiver Odell Beckham and are hoping Rueben Randle finally has a breakout season. They also signed some legitimate running backs (e.g Rashad Jennings) to run the ball and help minimize the hits on Manning. I would not be surprised at all if Manning rebounds as one of the better QB2s. Of course, the specter of Johnny Football looms in this tier. Enough has been said about his private life. I will stick to my view on him for fantasy football. It appears he is beating out Brian Hoyer for the job. He definitely has the talent to be a great quarterback. Whether he makes a significant contribution this year will depend on how fast he assimilates the playbook and his work ethic. The Browns have some weapons for him. Of course, its biggest weapon, Josh Gordon, is facing a season long suspension. If he gets it reduced in full or partially, it would be a great help to Manziel’s production in his rookie season. He has more value in a dynasty league but there are too many variables around him in a redraft league. Someone will reach for his upside.
Tier 5
Chad Henne (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Josh McCown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders)
Matt Schaub (Oakland Raiders)
Mike Glennon (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Brian Hoyer (Cleveland Browns)
If you are counting on any of these QBs to be a solid QB2 instead of as a bench QB to stash, you are probably in trouble. They are mainly starters who have a weak hold on their jobs or backups that you hope will eventually take the job. I like Mike Glennon. He showed flashes that he could be very good last season. As such, I did not understand why the Bucs felt a need to bring in Josh McCown other than Lovie Smith taking over as the new coach and wanting to leave his mark immediately by picking his QB. Blake Bortles was the first QB taken in the NFL draft and looked good in his first preseason game. There is no question that he will take the job from Henne at some point this season. Unfortunately, neither QB will have playmakers to throw to in their offense. In terms of Brian Hoyer, it is a shame he got hurt in the middle of last season. He was playing very well and missed an opportunity to see what he can do as a starter. While he is in the mix to start week 1, it feels like it is inevitable that Manziel takes the job from him.
Wide Receivers
Overview
Wide receivers are tricky in fantasy football. There are three elements for a wide receiver to be a great fantasy option: skills as a receiver, quarterback, and targets. Absence of any of the three can be detrimental to the fantasy value of a receiver. Larry Fitzgerald is the poster boy for the importance of a quality quarterback. Even though he is a great wide receiver, he cannot make up for a mediocre quarterback. Eric Decker will be a good case study for all three factors this season. He is definitely a gifted receiver. While he will see more targets with the New York Jets, he will also be going from the legendary, Peyton Manning, to the very raw Geno Smith or inconsistent Michael Vick. The production of receivers can vary dramatically year over year because of those factors. Accordingly, a top wide receiver, that is certain to produce as a top receiver every year, is just as valuable as a top running back and more valuable than most running backs. Ideally, you can get at least 2 receivers in the first two tiers. Once you are past the top two tiers, the wide receivers in the remaining pool of wide receivers have similar risk and reward so there is no urgency to draft a wide receiver after the first two tiers are gone. I also like to target wide receivers that are playing with a quarterback they have been with for multiple years since chemistry between a wide receiver and his quarterback is important for fantasy success.
Tier 1
Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions)
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)
Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Brandon Marshall (Chicago Bears)
Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys)
Alshon Jeffery (Chicago Bears)
Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)
These receivers meet all three criteria for an elite fantasy receiver. They are great talents and have quarterbacks that can get them the ball early and often. All of these receivers have also played with their respective quarterbacks for multiple seasons. Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas sit on the top of the list as the sure things. However, you cannot go wrong with any of these players as they are all pretty certain to put up elite stats. Julio Jones is coming off an injury ridden season. However, I expect the Atlanta Falcons and him to come back strong this season.
Tier 2
Andre Johnson (Houston Texans)
DeSean Jackson (Washington Redskins)
Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins)
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers)
Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers)
Victor Cruz (New York Giants)
Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)
Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers)
Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons)
Josh Gordon (Cleveland Browns)
This group of wide receivers does not have the upside or certainty of Tier 1. Nevertheless, they are excellent options. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are former superstars that are getting up there in age. I expect them to still produce but regression is a real concern now. In terms of Johnson, he also has to deal with a new quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who has only been average in his career. Fitzgerald gets some consistency with a second year of Carson Palmer as his quarterback. It may be Fitzgerald’s last season with the Cardinals because he is 31 with a huge cap hit next season due to his big contract. His best seasons are behind him but I believe he will still be very good this year. DeSean Jackson will be an impact for the Redskins since he is the best deep threat in football. However, Pierre Garcon is RGIII’s favorite receiver and will continue to be the target beast. While I expect Garcon’s numbers to remain the same, I anticipate Jackson’s targets and receptions to decline from last year. The Eagles system was also ideal for Jackson. For these reasons, I will probably be looking to draft the other receivers in this tier before him. The Packers duo of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are another interesting pair. Nelson is the better pure receiver while Cobb is more explosive as he can be a weapon running and returning. Both should put up their share of stats. I prefer Nelson because he has been more consistent in his career. Vincent Jackson is one of my favorite wide receivers to draft. He puts up high end WR2/ low end WR1 stats every season. Even when he had different QBs the last three seasons, he puts up numbers. Although I do not like that he has to switch QBs again with Josh McCown starting over Mike Glennon, Jackson should just keep on performing.
Victor Cruz’s season ended early due to injury last year. He is one of the elite receivers in the NFL. He has one of the higher upsides of the receivers in this tier. He is in this tier because of his injury last season as well as the complete collapse of the Giants line that prevented Eli Manning from having a chance to succeed. Nevertheless, it would not surprise me if Cruz was a Tier 1 wide receiver at the end of the season. Keenan Allen is another player in this tier with huge upside. He emerged at the end of last season as Philip River’s favorite target. He is a prototype wide receiver with height and speed. I also love that he plays with a top quarterback and has already developed great chemistry with him. Roddy White’s ceiling is capped by the presence of Julio Jones. However, he is still a great receiver. As long as he is healthy, he will put up the numbers. I expect the Falcons to rebound in a big way and White will be a significant factor in the turnaround. Josh Gordon is the biggest question mark in the draft. He had the best season for a receiver last year. However, he will definitely be suspended and could be suspended all of this season for drug violations. He is a first round pick based on performance. On the other hand, he would be undraftable if he is suspended the whole season. Perhaps the answer lies in between as the potential reward is worth a pick in the 10th or 11th rounds.
Tier 3
Wes Welker (Denver Broncos)
Julian Edelman (New England Patriots)
Mike Wallace (Miami Dolphins)
Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans)
Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints)
Eric Decker (New York Jets)
Cordarrelle Patterson (Minnesota Vikings)
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts)
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs)
Michael Floyd (Arizona Cardinals)
Percy Harvin (Seattle Seahawks)
Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)
Marvin Jones (Cincinnati Bengals)
Emmanuel Sanders (Denver Broncos)
Terrance Williams (Dallas Cowboys)
Rueben Randle (New York Giants)
Riley Cooper (Philadelphia Eagles)
Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)
Anquan Boldin (San Francisco 49ers)
This tier has a lot of good players. A couple of them have very good upside. However, they have key concerns that knocked them down from the next tier (e.g. age or a young player looking to breakout but has not proven it yet). Wes Welker is a reception machine and played great in his first year with the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning. Obviously, he is still in a great position to do very well. However, he missed 3 games due to injury last year and is getting up there in age at 33. Similarly, Maques Colston is another good receiver who is getting older. Julian Edelman is a poor man’s Welker. He hauled in a lot of receptions but for short yardage. He has minimal explosiveness. Kendall Wright had a decent second year with a lot of receptions. Like, it was for short yardage and he only hauled in two touchdowns. They represent the low upside that I stay away from in drafts. Mike Wallace is an intriguing player. He was on the brink of becoming a top fantasy receiver in Pittsburgh. Like DeSean Jackson, he is known as a deep threat. His first year in Miami was not terrible. If you believe his QB Ryan Tannehill will break out this season, then you can assume that Wallace will put up monster stats. Accordingly, he has huge fantasy upside with an acceptable floor. A similar player is Percy Harvin. He is one of the most explosive football players in the NFL as a runner, receiver, and returner. He has been close to superstardom but injuries have held him back. He was hurt most of last season but we saw his explosiveness in the Super Bowl as he returned a kickoff for a touchdown despite playing sparingly during the season. If he is healthy, I believe he is a better version of Randall Cobb and what a lot of people thought Reggie Bush could have been coming out of USC.
Naturally, Eric Decker thrived in the Denver Broncos system. There is clearly a difference between Geno Smith and Manning. If Smith develops into an average quarterback or Michael Vick steps in and plays well, Decker can match his stats in Denver since he will get a lot more targets as the primary receiving option. Emmanuel Sanders gains what Decker lost. While Peyton Manning will help Sanders’s stats, Sanders was already playing with a great quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. I would not expect a monumental jump in numbers. Sanders appears to be a good candidate to get over drafted because of Manning’ s presence. T.Y. Hilton and Torrey Smith are deep threats. They do not rack up enough receptions on a consistent basis for my liking. They either grab a couple of deep touchdowns or provide nothing. However, you can play them during favorable matchups. Dwayne Bowe is a veteran who has had great fantasy seasons. However, he is inconsistent year over year as shown by his subpar seasons the last two years. He is difficult to trust. On the other hand, he should get a lot of targets as the Chiefs’ one legitimate receiver.
Next, we have the young guns that are looking to break out. While they can make you look very smart, they can also break your heart by being a bust. Do not reach on these players but they are definitely great picks if you take them when they are supposed to go. Michael Floyd is getting attention in regards to potentially overtaking Larry Fitzgerald as the best receiver on the Arizona Cardinals this season. Floyd took a huge jump last season so he will be a trendy pick in drafts. Cordarrelle Patterson is ranked high because of his potential to break out in Minnesota under Norv Turner’s system. Nevertheless, I do not trust his QB situation at all. Marvin Jones is another candidate to have a huge sophomore season after catching 10 touchdowns in his rookie season. Unfortunately, he is already hurt and will miss the first four weeks of the season. I like Terrance Williams a lot on the Dallas Cowboys. They will be in a lot of shootouts and Dez Bryant will command all the attention from defenses. Williams flashed his talent last year and is in great position to have a big year. It is now or never for Rueben Randle in his third year. The Giants expect him to take a significant leap this year to star alongside Victor Cruz. Riley Cooper took a lot of criticism for a drunken outburst that contained a lot of racist remarks. However, he rebounded and had a good season. With DeSean Jackson gone, he has an opportunity for an expanded role. These receivers have similar risk/ reward but I prefer Floyd and Williams.
I also wanted to touch upon the San Francisco 49ers receivers. Michael Crabtree was hurt for most of last season. However, he is Colin Kaepernick’s favorite receiver. It is no surprise Crabtree was great two seasons ago after Kaepernick took over as QB. It will be interesting to see what they can do together if they get a full season together. Despite Richard Sherman’s claims that Crabtree is a mediocre wide receiver, Crabtree has a lot of fantasy upside. From my perspective, Anquan Boldin is one of the most interesting players in this tier. He is an older receiver but he still put up Tier 2 stats last season. Crabtree is healthy this season and the 49ers acquired Stevie Johnson to add to the receiver depth. As a result, Boldin’s targets should go down. On the other hand, he was very hit or miss last season as he either had big games or did nothing. A part of the reason is that two of the best cornerbacks in the league, Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson, are in his division and he had to go up against them each twice. Since he was the only legitimate receiver, teams could bear down on him if they chose. At this point in his career, he is not good enough to perform if teams plan specifically for him. With Crabtree and Johnson in the mix, I doubt teams will focus as much on Boldin. Although I understand the negatives and moved him down a tier because of them and his expected draft position, I can see the conflicting factors netting off and he provides similar production as last year. I think he slips in most drafts so you will be able to draft him later, after all the other WRs in this tier are off the board, as your WR3. His lower draft position should mitigate the risks.
Tier 4
Cecil Shorts III (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)
Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts)
Justin Hunter (Tennessee Titans)
Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles)
Brandin Cooks (New Orleans Saints)
Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Kenny Britt (St. Louis Cardinals)
DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)
Steve Smith Sr. (Baltimore Ravens)
Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers)
Andrew Hawkins (Cleveland Browns)
Tier 4 is when you start to have serious question marks. The difference between this tier and Tier 5 is that I am high on or intrigued by the receivers in Tier 4. Cecil Shorts is nothing special. However, there are very few options in Jacksonville so he should get a lot of targets. Perhaps, he will pick up his game once rookie Blake Bortles takes the quarterback job. Sammy Watkins is a hell of a talent and it is the reason the Bills gave up a lot to move up in the draft to get him. I am not too confident that EJ Manuel will step up in year 2. I am willing to take a flier once the draft is in the teen rounds. The other rookies in this tier are Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, and Kelvin Benjamin. The Saints are raving about Cooks. However, Drew Brees likes to spread it around to his receivers so I am not banking on Cooks being a fantasy stud. Evans is a big wide receiver and should pair nicely next to Vincent Jackson with the defenses focusing on Jackson. Josh McCown is not a star quarterback but he is a veteran. Tampa Bay is a decent situation for Evans to succeed. The rookie that may be in the best situation is Benjamin. Cam Newton is an elite fantasy quarterback and has no one to throw to with the weak receiver core. Benjamin has already distinguished himself and it is not difficult to envision that he could be the main target for Newton very quickly. Other promising young receivers are Justin Hunter, DeAndre Hopkins, and Andrew Hawkins. The Titans note that Hunter is making special plays every practice. They need a big time playmaker so he is worth following and drafting in the later rounds. Hopkins had a nice rookie season. He is a legitimate second receiver that the Texans need to complement Andre Johnson. Moreover, they are probably grooming Hopkins to be the number 1 receiver due to Johnson’s age. Hawkins is the only Browns wide receiver that has distinguished himself so far. Josh Gordon will be suspended for a good portion or all of the season. As such, Hawkins will get an opportunity to break out.
Next, we have receivers coming off injury. Reggie Wayne had a season ending injury and is turning 36 years old this season. However, he also plays with Andrew Luck and Wayne had a fine season in Luck’s rookie season. As such, he still has a chance to be a relevant fantasy wide receiver. Jeremy Maclin is one of my favorite wide receivers to draft. He has always been on the brink of stardom in his career. He has looked great in practice but is still battling nagging injuries after missing last season because of them. We saw DeSean have a monster year in Chip Kelly’s system. Maclin can do the same. Kenny Britt is a similar situation. He was on the brink of superstardom years ago before suffering injuries that have derailed his career since 2011. However, he is still only 25 and says he is healthy now. He is on the Rams. No one has emerged as a top receiving option for Sam Bradford. As such, it is a decent situation for Britt to finally realize his potential. I threw Steve Smith in this tier because I respect his competitiveness. His best days are clearly behind him but I like the situation he is in with Joe Flacco in Baltimore. At best, he puts up Anquan Boldin stats from the last two years.
Tier 5
Golden Tate (Detroit Lions)
Greg Jennings (Minnesota Vikings)
Markus Wheaton (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Brian Hartline (Miami Dolphins)
Jarrett Boykin (Green Bay Packers)
Marqise Lee (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Tavon Austin (St. Louis Rams)
Kenny Stills (New Orleans Saints)
James Jones (Oakland Raiders)
Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks)
Harry Douglas (Atlanta Falcons)
Andre Holmes (Oakland Raiders)
Hakeem Nicks (Indianapolis Colts)
Robert Woods (Buffalo Bills)
Aaron Dobson (New England Patriots)
Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants)
Nate Washington (Tennessee Titans)
Malcom Floyd (San Diego Chargers)
Jordan Matthews (Philadelphia Eagles)
Rod Streater (Oakland Raiders)
Miles Austin (Cleveland Browns)
Jerricho Cotchery (Carolina Panthers)
Andre Roberts (Washington Redskins)
Jeremy Kerley (New York Jets)
Donnie Avery (Kansas City Chiefs)
Brandon Gibson (Miami Dolphins)
Mike Williams (Buffalo Bills)
Danny Amendola (New England Patriots)
Lance Moore (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Kenbrell Thompkins (New England Patriots)
Most of these receivers are likely to be waiver wire level players. They may be useful in certain matchups and to cover bye weeks. However, I do have some thoughts about some of these players. Brian Hartline is a good example of a player who is useful to cover bye weeks. He is consistent and will get you some points so you avoid a bagel from a position for a week. Hakeem Nicks’s career has fallen dramatically. He was once an elite receiver. However, his poor attitude and injuries has derailed his career. He has apparently has not been good with the Colts so far and has dropped to the third receiver on the depth chart. He has a chance to revitalize his career with Andrew Luck as his QB but it is not looking good right now. The Giants let Nicks go and drafted Odell Beckham Jr. to fill the void. Beckham is a Randall Cobb/ Percy Harvin type of player. However, he is hurt and has not done anything. Since he is also a rookie, he is too far behind for me to assume he will have a good enough rookie season for me to draft him. Miles Austin is a receiver I have always liked. He produces when he is on the field and healthy. Unfortunately, he is rarely healthy. The Browns need someone to step up in Gordon’s absence. I would not be shocked if Austin gets a lot of targets and does well when he actually plays. Danny Amendola was supposed to be a better version of Wes Welker for Brady. However, his injury history reared his head and he was not on the field enough. It is not out of the question that he has a big second season with the Patriots. He is a good sleeper pick late in the draft. Kenbrell Thompkins was a trendy pick going into last season. However, dropped balls and poor play doomed him in his rookie season. The talent is still there so maybe Bill Belichick and Brady get it out of him this season. I would monitor him but not draft him.
Running Backs
Overview
When fantasy football started, drafting running backs early and often was standard operating procedure. In fact, it was fantasy law for years. However, the paradigm has shifted in recent seasons. The elite running back is an endangered species. Due to two back systems and the NFL changing the rules to make it a much more pass friendly league over the years, the roles and impact of running backs have been diminished. Teams and general managers have already adjusted to this new world as evidenced by the first running back selected in this past NFL draft later than any other draft. Nevertheless, the handful of elite running backs are still fantasy gold because there are so few left. After those top running backs go, the next tier does not offer enough production or at least predictable performance for me to lose out on getting top value at the other positions. There are a lot of running backs with the same risk and reward. If you are not able to draft one of those top tier backs, then I would be inclined to recommend punting on the position in the early rounds. I would try to get top players at the other skill positions (TE if you are able to draft Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, wide receivers, and quarterbacks). Then, I would try to get a reliable starter in Rounds 4 or 5 and enter the running back lottery in the middle rounds between (6-10 and beyond) by drafting as many running backs with upside as possible (who are unproven, in timeshares, or handcuffs) and hoping 2-3 of them are very good players. Of course, working and succeeding on the waiver wire is also crucial in this strategy.
Tier 1
Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)
LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)
Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)
Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)
Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)
Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy are the clear top backs in fantasy football. You cannot go wrong with either of them. I prefer McCoy because the offensive system that Chip Kelly runs is perfect for his production. Eddie Lacy is also on the rise. Even though he was hurt for some games in his rookie season, he still put up great numbers. Aaron Rodgers is healthy now too. Having arguably the best quarterback in the league will only make Lacy better. Any of these three running backs are great top 5 fantasy picks. Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte are older running backs who have been used heavily in their careers. Running backs can decline drastically in production suddenly without warning (e.g. Ray Rice last year). I drafted Ladanian Tomlinson with the first overall pick in the year that his performance dropped. As such, I hesitate to draft either back until the second half of the first round. On the other hand, Norv Turner is among the best offensive play callers in football and is now the offensive coordinator for the Vikings. His presence gives Peterson a boost. Marshawn Lynch, or “Beast Mode”, held out in training camp but it was resolved quickly. There are talks about the Seahawks giving Christine Michael significant carries to reduce Lynch’s workload. While he should get some, I still expect Lynch to be the workhorse. It appears that the Seahawks will run him hard again then let him go after this season. Lynch is still a strong 2nd/ 3rd round pick.
Tier 2
DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys)
Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Montee Ball (Denver Broncos)
Arian Foster (Houston Texans)
Andre Ellington (Arizona Cardinals)
Zac Stacy (St. Louis Rams)
Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati Bengals)
Reggie Bush (Detroit Lions)
Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)
These running backs are talented and in solid situations to be very productive. However, they have key question marks that prevent them from being in the top tier. DeMarco Murray has been a tremendously productive running back when healthy. However, his durability has been an issue in the early years of his career. He played in a career best 14 games last season. The same concern remains. If he can finally stay healthy, the Cowboys offense gives him a great chance to be a stud fantasy player. Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, and Giovani Bernard are very talented, second year running backs that showed flashes that they can be very good. Ball is in the best situation because he will play with the high powered Broncos offense and Peyton Manning. Nevertheless, each back is on a team committed to running the ball. Arian Foster was a top running back before he dealt with injuries last season and played in only 8 games. He produced when he played last year and can still be a top back. However, his injuries last season and age give me a legitimate pause from drafting him. Reggie Bush is a nice player who is in an offense that suits his skills. However, an injury history and splitting touches with running back, Joique Bell, limits his upside. Ryan Matthews is another good running back with injury issues. He actually played in 16 games last season and delivered solid RB2 stats. The Chargers have solid backup running backs so they will continue to limit his touches to keep him healthy. As such, his upside is also capped. This tier will be very tempting in the 3rd and 4th rounds. However, I prefer to have 3 top receivers and a top QB in the first four rounds since I believe their performance is more predictable. If all my Tier 1 and Tier 2 receivers are all gone, then I would definitely pick one of these running backs as a reliable starter. If they fall to the 5th or 6th round, it would be a no brainer to draft them.
Tier 3
C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills)
Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins)
Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Joique Bell (Detroit Lions)
Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Shane Vereen (New England Patriots)
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)
Ben Tate (Cleveland Browns)
Danny Woodhead (San Diego Chargers)
Rashad Jennings (New York Giants)
This group is mainly comprised of running backs looking for a rebound season and running backs who are solid RB2s without the upside to be RB1s. C.J. Spiller is one of the players looking to rebound. He was a trendy pick to have a breakout season last year. Instead, he became one of the bigger busts. Maybe, he will break out this year. He is a worthy gamble if he falls in the draft after his disappointing season. Alfred Morris is a very good runner but he does nothing in terms of catching the ball. As such, his upside is limited by his one dimensional game. Doug Martin had great stats in his rookie season. Critics pointed out that he racked up most of those stats in two games. I believed in him and had him high on my board last year. He was a big bust and only played 6 games. The Buccaneers have a terrible offensive line and look prepared to go with a running back by committee. As such, I am going to stay away from Martin this season. Joique Bell is very similar to Reggie Bush and will split touches in Detroit. He is a weapon running and receiving. They will likely limit each other’s fantasy value. Toby Gerhart finally gets out of Adrian Peterson’s shadow. He will be very productive just because he will get a lot of touches on a Jaguar team that does not have many other weapons. Shane Vereen also has a chance to get the most carries for the Patriots. He is their most talented back and is great at catching the football out of the backfield. However, the Patriots will use multiple backs. Vereen’s injury concerns also detract from his value. Frank Gore is still a very good running back. However, the 49ers will work in younger running backs and should go to the receivers more to keep Gore fresh. He will be a crucial player on the team but his fantasy value will decrease. Ben Tate is another intriguing name. I have drafted him many years in case Arian Foster got hurt because he was the best backup running back. Ironically, Tate also dealt with a lot of injuries last season when Foster finally got hurt. He signed with the Cleveland Browns and is in a good system under Kyle Shannahan to thrive. As a result, he gets his best chance at being a fantasy star this year. I still believe in him and he could definitely be an impact fantasy running back this year. Danny Woodhead is a nice player who has a role but will never be the top back on a team. I also like Rashad Jennings a lot. I expect him to do well on the Giants. However, he will lose touchdowns to the goal line back which limits his value.
Tier 4
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints)
Maurice Jones-Drew (Oakland Raiders)
Steven Jackson (Atlanta Falcons)
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)
Chris Johnson (New York Jets)
Trent Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins)
DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
Bishop Sankey (Tennessee Titans)
Stevan Ridley (New England Patriots)
Darren Sproles (Philadelphia Eagles)
These running backs are similar to the ones in tier 3. The only difference is that the Tier 3 backs are projected to score more points. The one player in this tier that may start moving up is rookie, Bishop Sankey. He was the first running back selected in the NFL draft and looked solid rushing and catching the ball in his first preseason game. I like Pierre Thomas because his versatility fits into the Saints system. However, there are rumors that he is now third in the depth chart behind Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson. I have no idea whether it is true. However, the Saints like to use a committee. As such, it is safer to stay away from the Saints running back situation until you are past the tenth round in the draft. Steven Jackson and Ray Rice are examples of running backs that just lost it all of a sudden. They may have something left in the tank but I am not willing to gamble a draft pick within the first 8 rounds to find out. Rice also needs to deal with the scrutiny from his domestic abuse case during the offseason as well as missing the first two games due to the related 2 game suspension. Chris Johnson has not been an elite running back since 2010 but he is still a good one. He should be a nice fit for the Jets but their running back by committee will limit Johnson’s fantasy value. Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller are young running backs who were busts last year. Richardson had a very good rookie season. He was traded during the season so I am willing to give him a break on trying to learn a new system on the fly. He still has upside but will have no more excuses soon. He could be a great sleeper pick now that everyone is down on him. Miller was only in his rookie season. He is still on top of the Dolphins’ depth chart and is worth another shot especially if he falls in the draft. Darren Sproles is in another perfect system, Chip Kelly’s Eagles, to maximize his versatility. Nevertheless, he will not get enough touches to be a top fantasy player.
Tier 5
Donald Brown (San Diego Chargers)
Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills)
Darren McFadden (Oakland Raiders)
Bernard Pierce (Baltimore Ravens)
Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati Bengals)
Terrance West (Cleveland Browns)
Mark Ingram (New Orleans)
Shonn Greene (Tennessee Titans)
Knowshon Moreno (Miami Dolphins)
Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis Colts)
Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)
Andre Williams (New York Giants)
Lance Dunbar (Dallas Cowboys)
Chris Ivory (New York Jets)
Carlos Hyde (San Francisco)
Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers)
Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta Falcons)
Charles Sims (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Roy Helu Jr. (Washington Redskins)
Dexter McCluster (Tennessee Titans)
Knile Davis (Kansas City Chiefs)
Mike Tolbert (Carolina Panthers)
Stepfan Taylor (Arizona Cardinals)
Marcel Reece (Oakland Raiders)
C.J. Anderson (Denver Broncos)
Jordan Todman (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Ronnie Hillman (Denver Broncos)
Bilal Powell (New York Jets)
Peyton Hillis (New York Giants)
James Starks (Green Bay)
Ka’Deem Carey (Chicago Bears)
Tre Mason (St. Louis Rams)
LeGarrette Blount (Pittsburgh Steelers)
James White (New England Patriots)
Jonathan Dwyer (Arizona Cardinals)
Christine Michael (Seattle Seahawks)
Chris Polk (Philadelphia Eagles)
Khiry Robinson (New Orleans Saints)
Bryce Bowen (Buffalo Bills)
Bobby Rainey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
This tier is mostly comprised of handcuffs. If the starter in front of them goes down or loses their job, a few of these backs can be a solid RB2 for your team. If you feel strongly about a handcuff taking a job or want to handcuff a back you already drafted, these players should be on your radar for the second half of your draft. At the very least, be familiar with these names so you know who to put a waiver claim on if something happens to the starter on their team. Some of the names pop out to me as I go down the list. Fred Jackson is a very productive back when he starts. With CJ Spiller’s injury history and inconsistent performance, Jackson always has a chance to play a lot. However, he is also a very old back at the age of 33. Darren McFadden will split carries with Jones Drew so he can be a good spot start for your fantasy team. Bernard Pierce will get a lot of carries while Ray Rice is suspended the first two games. Moreover, Rice’s performance fell off a cliff last year so it would not surprise me if Pierce’s role increase significantly anyway. Knowshon Moreno was great with Peyton Manning. Obviously, his production takes a hit as a backup for Lamar Miller on the Dolphins. Although Moreno showed up to training camp out of shape, he is a veteran that has had productive seasons so he can definitely be a good player if Miller busts again. At some point, Frank Gore’s age will catch up to him. At minimum, rookie Carlos Hyde will split carries with Gore as the 49ers attempt to keep Gore fresh throughout the season. Christine Michael is an interesting pick in dynasty leagues for owners looking to next season. For this season, I strongly believe that Lynch will still be the workhorse and Michael will not get enough touches to matter. I like what I saw from Khiry Robinson at the end of last season and in the playoffs. However, the Saints running back situation is always cloudy.
About Pat Wong
Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.