Baseball May Progress Report: National League

NL East

1.  Atlanta Braves (30-25)

The Braves suffered significant injuries to talented young pitchers before the season. It is a testament to their organizational pitching depth that they still have excellent pitching. The signing of Earvin Santana has helped. Promising young pitcher Alex Wood is also being sent back to the minors to stretch back out into a starter. He started the season as a reliever to save innings on his arm. They also have the best closer in baseball in Craig Kimbrel locking down the end of games. Their pitching will continue to be great and carry them. The problem is their offense. In recent years, they have power but they strike out way too much.  The problem continues and they have scored the third least amount of runs in the league. Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, and Freddie Freeman have hit well and hit for power. Jason Heyward has picked it up but is still underwhelming overall. Andrelton Simmons is a promising shortstop that is not a great hitter but not bad either. The rest of the lineup is atrocious. B.J. Upton is the symbol of futility. They signed him for big money as a free agent before last season. He is only batting .206. There are too many holes in this lineup and it will not get much better. They will need to rely on their pitching.

Grade: B

2. Miami Marlins (28-27)

The Marlins suffered a devastating loss when ace Jose Fernandez tore his UCL and needed Tommy John Surgery. I give them a lot of credit for still playing well. Giancarlo Stanton is having a MVP year batting .305 with .399 OBP, 18 homeruns, and 54 RBIs. His moon shot homeruns are consistently featured on highlights. Casey McGehee has also played very well batting .304. He is very important because teams would have no reason to ever pitch to Stanton without McGehee providing some protection. Young outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich have also been productive hitters. Overall, the Marlins offense has been surprisingly good and has scored the second most runs in the NL.  Even without Fernandez, the Marlins greatest strength is their young pitching. Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Tom Koehler have done well. Steve Cishek has been an excellent closer at the end of games. The Marlins should also promote top pitching prospect Andrew Heaney soon to help their rotation. Heaney has been great in the minors this year and is ready for the big leagues. Since being promoted to AAA, he has been even better than when he was at AA going 3-0 with 2.74 ERA and 27 Ks compared to only 2 walks. The NL East is a very winnable division. The Marlins have built up a strong farm system. It should be interesting to see if they go for it and acquire a couple of veteran, impact players by trading some prospects.

Grade: B+

3. Washington Nationals (27-27)

The Nationals have some of the best overall talent in baseball. Accordingly, it has been another disappointing start to the season similar to last season. However, the Nationals only need to stay afloat for now. As I noted above, it is a weak division. One of the reasons the Nationals are struggling is injuries. However, they will get three impact players back: outfielder Bryce Harper, third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, and ace Gio Gonzalez. Their average offense should get a major jolt with the return of Harper and Zimmerman. Their starting pitching is already strong with aces Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman at the top of it. Gonzalez will make it even better. Expect a big push from this team soon. I would bet on them to win this division.

Grade: B-

4. New York Mets (26-29)

Their overall record is not bad. However, this team has a lot of problems. First, their lineup is among the worst in baseball. David Wright is still an All-Star caliber player but Citifield has sapped his power since he has played there. They signed Curtis Granderson as a free agent but he has had a difficult time batting .224. However, he still has 8 homeruns and 30 RBIs. He should get going and be fine. The other outfielder they signed is Chris Young. It was puzzling and he has been the symbol of the offensive futility for Mets fans. He is batting a pathetic .201 with .289 OBP, 4 homeruns, and 15 RBIs. As bad as those numbers are, the games find a way to put him in a critical situation during them and he makes out. At one point, the Mets failed to score in 9 consecutive times they had the bases loaded. There is no hope for this lineup this season. Mets fans will need to wait for the offseason until their front office tries to acquire better hitters. They can be optimistic about the young starting pitching in their organization. Jonathan Niese has developed into one of the better left handed starters in the league. Matt Harvey was arguably the best pitcher in baseball before he got hurt last year. He should be back next year after he finishes his recovery from Tommy John Surgery. Zach Wheeler has shown flashes of brilliance but been inconsistent. His struggles should be expected. Harvey’s quick ascension last season was an aberration. Young pitchers usually need some time to grow. Similarly, Rafael Montero was called up but was clearly not ready. He should be fine in the long run. The jewel of their minor league system is Noah Syndergaard. He suffered an injury. Unless it is an injury that leads to Tommy John, he should be called up this year at some point. With all these young pitchers, it is confusing why the Mets did not acquire a veteran catcher to help develop them. They put a lot of stock in Travis d’Arnaud as their starting catcher and it has been a flop. He only batted .180 this season and is back in the minors. It is concerning because he has been great in the minor leagues so he may be one of the dreaded AAAA players. Regardless, the Mets should have signed or traded for a veteran backup. In addition, their bullpen has also been terrible again. They are hoping the answer is some of the young arms in the organization. They are still in it for now because of a struggling division even though they went 11-18 in the month. They will fall out of it and focus on the future. Bartolo Colon is a potential trade chip. He struggled early but has picked it up. Teams are always looking for starting pitching depth at the trade deadline.

Grade: C-

5. Philadelphia Phillies (24-29)

The Phillies are old and their window has long closed. I thought they should have started dismantling and rebuilding the team last season. Even in a weak division and the return of ace Cliff Lee soon, they just do not have enough for a real chance of winning it. If GM Rueben Amaro finally realizes they need to rebuild, they have some nice pieces to trade. Chase Utley has had a comeback season. He looks great batting .308 with .366 OBP, 5 homeruns, and 32 RBIs. Plenty of teams would love to get their hands on them. Veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins can definitely help other teams too. AJ Burnett is only on a one year contract and is a veteran who can help stabilize a back of a rotation. Their most interesting potential trade piece is Cliff Lee. While he still has a lot of money in his contract, he is a proven big game pitcher. A team in contention may take a chance hoping Lee puts them over the top.

Grade: D+

NL Central

1. Milwaukee Brewers (33-23)

The Brewers have been one of the surprises in baseball. They have very strong pitching and their hitting has been timely. They have no true ace but they have 5 solid starters. Kyle Lohse is the veteran that leads the staff at 7-2 with 1.01 WHIP, 3.00 ERA, and an excellent 69K/14BB ratio in 96 innings. He was a late free agent signing in spring training last season and has delivered. Yovani Gallardo and Matt Garza are the other two veteran pitchers in the rotation. Garza was signed as a free agent before this season. He has been inconsistent so far. However, he was an excellent top of the rotation starter for the Cubs in the NL Central so I expect him to pick up his game. Wily Peralta has also been very good. Marco Estrada has been inconsistent but is still a solid back of the rotation innings eater. Francisco Rodriguez has had a comeback season. He took over the closer job at the start of the season and has been brilliant with 21 saves, 0.95 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, and 36 Ks compared to 5 walks in 27.1 innings. Their offense has been more about timely hits than prolific numbers. Carlos Gomez has been their best player so far batting .310 with .377 OBP, 12 homeruns, 38 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases. Their superstar Ryan Braun has returned from his PED suspension related to Biogenesis last year. He has been battling injuries this year. He has still been productive batting .288 with 10 homeruns, 35 RBIs, and 6 steals in only 51 games. However, it should be interesting to see what he does without PEDs. The 13 walks compared to 40 strikeouts and regression in OBP to .333 is signs that he will not be as good as he was in the past. The numbers may be due to injuries so we shall see. This offense has room to improve. Young shortstop Jean Segura started his career on fire in the first half of last season. He has not been nearly as good since so he can improve from his mediocre.250 batting average and .278 OBP. Aramis Ramirez has been a run producer his entire career. He has missed time again due to injury but still has 7 homeruns in only 44 games. He can still be a force if he is healthy.

Grade: A-

2. St. Louis Cardinals (30-26)

The Cardinals offense has not been as good as last season’s lineup. However, they have a schedule that includes a lot of road games early. Their record has improved as they have played more home games. They are 16-11 at home and 14-15 on the road. That split is good. They lost Carlos Beltran to free agency. He was a presence in the middle of their lineup. While he would help, they have plenty of talented hitters that just need to get it going. Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Johnny Peralta can and need to do better. I also expect Oscar Taveras to make an impact this season. He homered in his first Major League game. While he has been sent down, he will be back. Centerfielder Peter Bourjos is a great fielder but is only batting .209. He is simply not much of a hitter and cannot keep Taveras down in the minors. The pitching staff is still very strong. Adam Wainwright is their ace at 9-3 with 0.93 WHIP, 2.15 ERA, and 91 Ks compared to 21 walks in 100.1 innings. He is irreplaceable and the Cardinals must be holding their breath hoping the recent elbow injury is not significant. Michael Wacha had a brilliant postseason last year. He is 4-5 but has pitched great. Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller have been inconsistent but have 7 wins. Miller has 60 Ks compared to 38 walks. He has not been great since the beginning of last year. Accordingly, it is concerning and his ERA of 3.42 is not sustainable if he does not pitch better. On the other hand, Jaime Garcia is a big addition to their rotation. He is returning from Tommy John surgery and has been great with 26 Ks compared to 3 walks in 31.2 innings. If Wainwright is fine, I expect this rotation to continue to be excellent. The bullpen has been inconsistent this year. They have fireballers that should be doing better. For example, Trevor Rosenthal has dominant stuff but has walked too many batters with 18. However, the Cardinals will be fine. If he falters, former closer Jason Motte is back and can handle the job. I still think the Cardinals will win the division.

Grade: B

3. Cincinnati Reds (25-29)

The Reds are disappointing. It is because of their offense, which has scored the second least amount of runs in baseball. Their superstar first baseman Joey Votto has been injury prone in recent seasons and has already missed significant time. Star outfielder Jay Bruce is only batting .215. Second basemen Brandon Phillips continues his regression. Their ridiculously fast outfielder, Billy Hamilton, has been inconsistent in his first full season. He could not hit the ball in the minors. However, he was able to get on base enough to steal record amounts of bases in the minors. It is no surprise that is struggling in the Major Leagues batting .257 with an atrocious .296 OBP. If his OBP was over .340, he would be a game breaker. Their lone bright spot on offense is third baseman Todd Frazier, who has broken out batting .272 with 14 homeruns. On the pitching side, Johnny Cueto is a Cy Young candidate. He has been fabulous at 6-5 with 0.77 WHIP, 1.85 ERA, 109 Ks compared to 22 walks in 102 innings. Alfredo Simon has been a surprise with 9 wins. However, regression is in his future with his modest K/BB ratio of 2.5. Mike Leake has been pitching well. Homer Bailey received a big contract before the season but has been inconsistent even though he still has 7 wins. Their second best starter, Mat Latos, has been injured but is returning. He will make their starting rotation even better. Aroldis Chapman was hurt in a freak accident in Spring Training. He is back and dominating as usual with 0.56 WHIP, 1.13 ERA, and 31 Ks versus only 4 walks in 16 innings. Clearly, the pitching is not the problem. The hitting will need to do better. Votto and Bruce playing up to their standards would give them a jolt. However, I am not sure whether it will only transform a terrible offense into a slightly below average one. Then again, that marginal improvement might be enough for their dominating pitching to carry them to the playoffs.

Grade: C+

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (25-30)

The Pirates were a nice story last year but their struggles this year suggest that they were helped by some luck. In my opinion, it is simple why they are worse. Their hitting is still mediocre but their pitching has not been as good. Top outfield prospect Gregory Polanco tore up the minor leagues and was ready to join the Major League Team at the beginning of the season. However, they kept him in the minors to play with his arbitration clock. He could have given the jolt the offense needed earlier. Instead, they dug themselves in a hole. In regards to the pitching staff, they lost AJ Burnett to free agency and Francisco Liriano is terrible at 1-6. They led the staff as the veteran starters last year so the loss of Burnett and struggles of LIriano have set them back. To make matters worse, their ace Gerrit Cole got hurt. However, he will be returning soon. Polanco and MVP Andrew McCutchen will give Pirates fans an exciting duo they can enjoy watching but I do not see this team sniffing the playoffs this year.

Grade: C

5. Chicago Cubs (20-33)

Their -9 run differential suggests that their play is not as bad as their terrible record suggests. Nevertheless, the Cubs are about the future with the prospects they have been accumulating in the farm system. They are already exploring trade opportunities for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. Samardizja will cost teams the most since he looks like an ace. Hammel is a good, solid pitcher that teams might be more interested in because he will come cheaper. Cubs fans should be encouraged about the turnaround of first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Starlin Castro. Rizzo finally looks like the top player many thought he could be batting .283 with .408 OBP, 13 homeruns, and 36 RBIs. Castro has also been good batting .274 with 9 homeruns. They will be the building blocks for the future.

Grade: C-

AL West

1. San Francisco Giants (36-20)

The Giants earned a pass for last season’s train wreck after winning two of the last three preceding World Series. They have rebounded quickly and are on top of their division. They are carried by their pitching again. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have regressed and been surpassed by Madison Bumgarner as the ace. Tim Hudson has been a great free agent signing. He is 7-2 with 0.97 WHIP and 1.81 ERA. His 60K/13BB ratio suggests he will continue to be excellent. Of course, his 1.81 ERA will rise. They also have a better offense than they have in the seasons they won the World Series. Angel Pagan has been a key difference from last season. He missed more than half the season last year. He has been healthy this year and playing great batting .307 and getting on base at .356. He is an impact player at the top of the lineup. Michael Morse has also been a great offseason acquisition batting .291 with 13 homeruns. This offense can get better. Superstar catcher Buster Posey has 9 homeruns but he can definitely improve on the mediocre .269 batting average and .329 OBP. Brandon Belt started out fast with 9 homeruns before getting hurt. His return should help. Pablo Sandoval is also only batting .257 and I expect him to do better. Based on their recent track history and talent, they are primed for another deep playoff run.

Grade: A

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (30-27)

There is a lot of nonsense about Yasiel Puig’s antics. He has some “Manny being Manny” in him. However, I want to concentrate on his greatness on the field. He is batting .320 with 11 homeruns, 40 RBIs, and 7 steals. I am more impressed by his .413 OBP. It is incredible that his plate discipline is already great at such a young age. He is definitely the Dodgers best player on a much improved offense. First basemen Adrian Gonzalez has finally found the power stroke that has been missing in recent seasons. He has hit 12 homeruns so far. Second baseman Dee Gordon is providing incredible speed with 36 steals. His OBP is only .321 so he needs to work on getting on base. The key issue the Dodgers need to resolve is their outfield situation. Puig obviously needs to play every day. However, they have big money invested in veterans Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. In my opinion, Kemp also needs to play as much as possible because he is a MVP caliber player when he is healthy. I think they need to eat a lot of money on one of the other outfielders and move on. Since Crawford has a bigger contract, Ethier might be the odd man out. However, the result of Crawford’s current injury may be the answer. They also have a stud outfield prospect, Joc Pederson, in the minors. With the logjam, it makes sense to move him in a trade that can help them. Their pitching has been good and will be better. Ace Clayton Kershaw missed significant time in the first month and is back. Kershaw and Zach Greinke form the best 1-2 punch at the top of a rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu is one of the better third starters in the league and Dan Haren is a former top of the rotation pitcher that has pitched very well. They also have a dominant closer, Kenley Jensen, at the end of games. He has 19 saves and 47 Ks compared to 11 walks in 28 innings. The Dodgers have top players on all sides of the ball. Despite a modest start, they will be fighting it out with Giants for the division.

Grade: B-

3. Colorado Rockies (28-27)

Playing half their home games in Coors Field always helps their run totals. They are leading baseball in runs scored. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki is having a MVP caliber season batting .362 with .454 OBP, 18 homeruns, and 45 RBIs. First baseman Justin Morneau continues his resurgence batting .302 with 11 homeruns and 44 RBIs. Their star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is not even healthy. Young, star third baseman Nolan Arenado had a fast start but got hurt. Once these hitters come back, their offense will be even better. Nevertheless, having starting pitching, that can last the full season while playing home games at Coors, has always been the issue. While their starters have kept them in games so far, I do not think they are good enough to keep them in the playoff race. I definitely do not think they can compete for the division. However, their lineup will continue to bash the ball throughout the season.

Grade: B

4. San Diego Padres (26-30)

There are bad offenses and then there are the Padres. They have the lowest on base percentage in baseball at .276 and have a team batting average at .216. They are kept in games by their excellent pitching. Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross are good, young pitchers. Ian Kennedy has resurged in San Diego. They also have a strong bullpen that includes an excellent 1-2 punch with Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit at the end of games. However, they are going nowhere with that offense. Their bullpen arms will be players that other teams will want at the trade deadline.

Grade: C-

5. Arizona Diamondbacks (23-35)

Their pitching has been a disaster and it is the primary cause for their struggles. Their ace, Patrick Corbin, at the end of spring training was lost to Tommy John surgery. The rest of their starters are average and their bullpen has not been good. Their bright spots are on offense. Paul Goldschmidt has stepped forward as one of the best players in baseball. He is batting .305 with .374 OBP, 15 homeruns, 51 RBIs, and 5 steals. Catcher Miguel Montero has rebounded this season batting .273 with .362 OBP, 10 homeruns, and 39 RBIs. They can build their team around those two players. They have also hired Tony Larussa to be the Chief Baseball Officer. He is a brilliant baseball man and should help them start turning things around.

Grade: D

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