The top three first basemen are among the best fantasy hitters in the game. However, this position is deep. If you cannot get one in the top tier, there is no reason to reach. You can pick from up and coming first basemen, older superstars trying to find something left in the tank, or just old reliable picks that will get you 20+ homeruns. My usual draft strategy for first basemen is as follows: 1) Draft a top three first basemen in the first round, 2) Take a young high potential player like a Eric Hosmer in the 6th round, 3) Take a 30 homerun veteran like a David Ortiz around the 10th round, or 4) Take a solid veteran in the teens (e.g. Paul Konerko a few years ago but a Kendrys Morales type is a good proxy today). My goal going into each draft is to take two players that meet those criteria.
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (2013: .302 AVG/ 103 R/ 36 HR/ 125 RBIs/ 15 SB)
Goldschmidt is a five category star in fantasy baseball and is a plus in every statistical category. He is the best combination of power and speed at the position. He should be drafted at the very top of the first round.
2. Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles (2013: .286 AVG/ 103 R/ 53 HR/ 138 RBIs/ 4 SB)
Davis had a breakout season two years ago hitting 33 homeruns. He emerged as a superstar and realized his full potential last year hitting 53 homeruns. Of course, it will be difficult to duplicate such a monster year. Regardless, his floor is 35 homeruns and 110 RBIs so feel secure drafting him in the first round.
3. Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers (2013: .313 AVG/ 83 R/ 30 HR/ 108 RBIs/ 1 SB)
Fielder is consistently one of the best sluggers in the game. While Fielder is usually a sure 30+ homeruns, 25 homeruns and 108 RBIs last year is not bad. He started last season on fire. He apparently dealt with personal problems that took away from his focus in the middle of the season before finishing strong. It was a blockbuster trade when he was acquired by the Texas Rangers for second basemen Ian Kinsler. I expect the trade to be great for Fielder’s fantasy value as he moves from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park.
4. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (2013: .305 AVG/ 73 R/ 24 HR/ 73 RBIs/ 6 SB)
Votto is definitely one of the best players in the sport with a career .314 average, .419 on base percentage, and great defense. For fantasy purposes, he has only had one elite season which occurred in 2010: .324 AVG/ 37 HR/ 113 RBIs/ 16 SB. It was similar to the season Goldschmidt had last year. He is still a top player in reality walking close or well over 100 times a year with a high batting average. However, his overall fantasy stats are pedestrian considering his actual status in baseball. Nevertheless, his fantasy upside is worth the risk at the end of the first round or early second round pick.
5. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays (2013: .272 AVG/ 90 R/ 36 HR/ 104 RBIs/ 7 SB)
Encarnacion proved his breakout season of 42 homeruns in 2012 was no fluke. He did it again last season with 36 homeruns. More impressively, he has improved his plate discipline and walked over 80 times each season. He also adds some steals to go along with his power too.
6. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (2013: .319 AVG/ 89 R/ 23 HR/ 109 RBI/ 1 SB)
There is a reason the Braves have already committed a fortune to Freeman. He is one of the rising stars in the league. He is already one of the best young hitters in the league with a high batting average and .396 OBP last year. However, I am waiting for him to flash 30 homerun power before I move him up to the top of this league. He has hit 23 homeruns each of the last two seasons.
7. Eric Hosmer (2013: .302 AVG/ 86 R/ 17 HR/ 79 RBIs/ 11 SB)
Hosmer is a candidate to have a breakout season. He has yet to hit 20 homeruns in his 3 seasons but the power is there. He also has speed. It should be interesting to see if he has a Goldschmidt type emergence this year. Hosmer stepped up his game in the second half of last season batting .323 with a .379 OBP.
8. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox (2013: .309 AVG/ 84 R/ 30 HR/ 103 RBIs/ 4 SB)
Ortiz still has plenty in the tank and he constantly reminds the Red Sox as he tries to get another contract extension. As long as he is healthy, he is still good for 30 homeruns and 100 RBIs. He has done close to it in 3 of the last 4 seasons. In 2012, he only played in 90 games and hit 23 homeruns.
9. Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals (2013:.315 AVG/ 71 R/ 13 HR/ 97 RBIs/ 2 SB)
He is one of the better young hitters in the game but he is also a huge injury risk. He provides a high average and RBIs. Besides staying health, he also needs to show 30 homerun ability before he moves up as an elite fantasy option at first.
10. Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers (2013: .293 AVG/ 69 R/ 22 HR/ 100 RBIs/ 1 SB)
Since 2011, he has lost the power that made him a first round pick. He is still very good hitter but he is definitely a third round pick who should be passed on as there are more complete players.
Middle Tier
* Nick Swisher, Cleveland Indians; Brandon Moss, Oakland As; Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays; Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals; Justin Morneau, Colorado Rockies, Kendrys Morales
These guys are decent picks in the teens rounds. They are not great hitters for average but will not completely kill you either while hitting 20+ homeruns. Butler is the best average hitter but is not a great homerun hitter. Morneau has not been the slugger he was in his prime. However, a new home at Coors field may help boost his stats. Morales still needs to find a team but he is the best option of the group once he finds one.
Former Catchers
* Mike Napoli, Boston Red Sox; Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
These players were great options at catcher but have lost a lot of their fantasy value now that they are only eligible at first base. Both men are run producers. Napoli has more power but Martinez provides a much higher average. Napoli is in a great lineup with the Red Sox. Martinez is in a great lineup and in a great spot in that lineup protecting Miguel Cabrera.
Aging Superstars
* Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels; Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees; Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
The decline of Pujols has been drastic since he left St. Louis. In his first season with the Angels, he hit .285 with 30 homeruns and 105 RBIs even though he had to switch to a new league and felt the pressure of trying to live up to a monster contract with a new team. I still had him as the top first basemen last year as I thought he still had excellent stats in a poor year. However, last year was a clear sign of decline. In an injury shortened season, he hit .258 and 17 homeruns. His production has declined steadily the last four years. It is fair to question whether he will be even an All-Star player anymore. As for Teixeira, his average has dropped significantly since 2009 but he still has his power. However, wrists injuries are very tricky. I would not reach on either of these two anymore. Howard still has 20+ homerun power but has only played 151 games combined in the last two seasons.
Young Sluggers
* Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs; Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants; Matt Adams, St. Louis Cardinals
I have been very high on Rizzo in recent seasons. He has shown power but has not realized his potential. While he may break out this year, I am tempering my expectations on him and not reaching on him anymore. Belt had a big second half last season batting .326 with a .390 on base percentage. Barry Bonds is helping the team as an instructor. Hopefully for Belt, Bonds has knowledge he can use to continue his upward swing. Adams has 30 homerun power but does not get enough plate appearances to show it.
Power at a Cost
* Mark Trumbo, Arizona Diamondbacks; Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox; Chris Carter, Houston Astros; Adam Laroche, Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners; Ike Davis, New York Mets
These hitters will give you homeruns but kill your average. Trumbo and Dunn are the poster childs. Ike Davis had a monster second half in 2012 and he was a trendy pick going into last season. However, he was a complete dud as his swing was completely off.
Foreign Wild Card
* José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
Anyone’s guess is as good as mine. I have no idea how he will translate to the major leagues. After the successes of fellow Cubans Yoenis Cespedes in his rookie season and success of Yasiel Puig last year, Abreu attracted major interest and signed a big contract with the White Sox. However, I do not like uncertainty so it is not a guy I reach on. Nevertheless, someone could get a big payout on the gamble. Personally, I would roll the dice around round 10.
About Pat Wong
Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.