AFC East
It is the New England Patriots’ division until further notice. They did lose two of their best playmakers: Aaron Hernandez (murder charges) and Wes Welker (free agency). In addition, Rob Gronkowski had major surgery and will not be ready to start the beginning of the season. The severity of the surgery also begs to question how effective he will be even when he comes back. Nevertheless, the Patriots still have Tom Brady as their quarterback and Bill Belichick as their head coach. Even in a bad year, they are good for 11+ wins. If free agent acquisition Danny Amendola can finally stay healthy, Brady will make him a superstar. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins are young and improving teams. Nevertheless, I do not see them putting up 11 or more wins to challenge the Patriots for the division.
The Bills’ running back CJ Spiller is a trendy pick to have a breakout season as a top runner in the league. On the other hand, they will have a rookie head coach, Doug Marrone from Syracuse University, and a rookie quarterback, EJ Manuel. I think a successful season for the Bills is a 7-9 win season with CJ Spiller and EJ Manuel establishing themselves as the building blocks for the franchise going forward. The Miami Dolphins made a lot of offseason moves. First, they brought in deep threat Mike Wallace to pair with quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s big arm. Obviously, they hope that it will be a special pairing and helps Tannehill take the next step in his second year in the NFL. In addition, they made some key additions to the defense that includes linebacker Dannell Ellerbe from the Baltimore Ravens. If everything goes right for the Dolphins which include Tannehill making a significant improvement, they could win 10+ games this season and contend for a playoff spot. While they are headed in the right direction, I believe they will take at least a year to build chemistry and improve to challenge the Patriots.
The New York Jets are a mess. While their defense is not as good as it was when Rex Ryan first started, it still has some very good players. However, the same cannot be said for the offense. Their wide receiver core is pathetic. Most likely, the Jets will go with rookie quarterback Geno Smith. If Smith can establish himself as a solid quarterback with upside, it is a step forward. Unfortunately, the Jets will not be anywhere near the playoffs. They are the favorites to finish last in the division.
Division Winner Pick: New England Patriots
Breakout Player in the Division: CJ Spiller, RB (Buffalo Bills)
Dark Horse Team: Miami Dolphins
Coach on the Hot Seat: Rex Ryan, New York Jets
AFC North
The AFC North has been one of the toughest divisions in recent years, with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers winning Superbowls. However, the teams have regressed and we can start with the Ravens and Steelers. While the Ravens are the defending Superbowl champions, they went all in last season to win it in Ray Lewis’s final season. Moreover, they had to pay Joe Flacco as a Superbowl winning, franchise quarterback. As a result, they could not keep most of their other key free agents. The Ravens are going younger and are in rebuilding mode. Nevertheless, they should still finish around 8 wins with Flacco at quarterback, an elite running back in Ray Rice, and a great head coach in John Harbuagh. If things break right for them and they progress during the season, they could sneak in the playoffs. As for the Steelers, their great defense got old and are middle of the pack now. While Ben Roethlisberger is a great quarterback, he had trouble staying on the field last year as he missed 3 games. Due to him getting banged up with his style of play and getting older, it is a legitimate concern going forward whether he can play all 16 games. The loss of receiver Mike Wallace in free agency also reduces the explosiveness of the offense. Nevertheless, the Steelers are a great franchise with an elite quarterback and great head coach. While I can definitely see regression from the 8-8 record last year, it would also not surprise me if they muster 10 wins if Roethlisberger can play all 16 games.
The Cincinnati Bengals are the team best set up to play well this season and contend for the division. They have a young and improving team that has made the playoffs the last two seasons. They are very good on offense and defense. AJ Green is the real deal and one of the best playmakers at wide receiver in the NFL. While Andy Dalton is a productive quarterback, he will need to progress in order for the Bengals to challenge the elite teams. Nevertheless, I still have a difficult time trusting the Bengals and picking them to win the division even though they are the one team in this division that I would say will definitely be contending for a playoff spot at the end of the season. As for the Cleveland Browns, I am high on them this season. They have been adding young talent on both sides of the ball in recent years. Trent Richardson is a horse that can carry them as a running back. However, quarterback Brandon Weeden is the key to their season and it is difficult to trust him. Jordan Cameron could have a breakout season as a game changing tight end but it depends on whether Weeden can deliver him the ball. While the Browns have been a team people have picked to emerge in the last few years, they have fallen well short of higher expectations. I like the team they are building. However, it is more likely that they will be around 8-8, contend, but fall short of a playoff spot if they play well this season.
Division Winner Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Breakout Player in the Division: Jordan Cameron, TE (Cleveland Browns)
Dark Horse Team: Cleveland Browns
Coach on the Hot Seat: None. John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have no chance of getting fired by the Ravens and Steelers respectively. Marvin Lewis’s job is also safe as he has made the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years with the Bengals. The Browns have a new head coach, Rob Chudzinski. He will get a longer leash than one season regardless of how the Browns finish this year.
AFC South
The Houston Texans should win this division. Arian Foster has injury concerns going into this season and his stats have been regressing each season. However, Ben Tate is the best backup running back in the league. He can pick up Foster’s carries and be very productive. The Texans have everything they need to win the Superbowl. They were the best team in the AFC last season before linebacker Brian Cushing’s season ending injury. While it was a tough loss, I believe the real reason the Texans do not fare well against the elite teams in the league is that their coaching staff is unable to make the necessary adjustments. The Texans stick to their style of play and have difficulty playing any other way. While it is very effective against most of the NFL, it hurts them against teams like the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are sure to make adjustments against every team. Peyton Manning adjusts and calls audibles at the line in every game against every team. Unless the Texans are able to adapt to the elite teams, they will make the playoffs but will fall short of the Superbowl again.
The Indianapolis Colts will challenge the Texans for the division. However, I do not think they have put enough around future superstar, quarterback Andrew Luck yet to beat the Texans out for it this season. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how Luck progresses in his second year. In addition, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has looked excellent in the preseason. It will be a big step for the Colts if he can develop into an impact player. After the Colts, the next best team in the division is the Tennessee Titans. Their three core guys on offense are running back Chris Johnson, quarterback Jake Locker, and wide receiver Kenny Britt. Johnson has not been an elite back for a few seasons now. Locker is a young quarterback that they are still trying to develop. Britt is a very talented receiver that has suffered serious injuries. For the Titans to get to 9-10 wins, Johnson needs to be a top back again, Locker needs to develop into a productive quarterback, and Britt needs to come back strong from injury and be an impact wide receiver. I can see Johnson having a comeback season but I do not see the other two scenarios both occurring. As a result, the Titans will be a 6-8 win team again. As for the Jacksonville Jaguars, they are in rebuild mode. Maurice Jones Drew is in a contract year so I can see him having a big year and winning a few games on his own. However, their quarterback situation is a disaster and their talented, young receiver Justin Blackmon is suspended to start the season and has character issues. It will be another long season for the Jaguars.
Division Winner Pick: Houston Texans
Breakout Player in the Division: T.Y. Hilton, WR (Indianapolis Colts)
Dark Horse Team: Tennessee Titans
Coach on the Hot Seat: Greg Kubiak, Houston Texans. There is nothing imminent. However, I am wondering if he is running out of chances to win the Superbowl with elite talent.
AFC West
The Denver Broncos are the class of the division and the other three teams will not be anywhere near them in the standings by the end of the season. Von Miller is suspended to start the season but it will not matter. Peyton Manning is good for 12+ wins. His arm strength looks like it has returned and the Broncos added Wes Welker to go along with an already, very productive receiving core. The running back that wins the starting job should have an opportunity to gain a lot of yards and make an impact with Manning orchestrating the offense and creating running lanes. As Manning gave a public endorsement to Montee Ball, I will go with him for now. The Broncos have players on both sides of the ball and are definitely one of the favorites to win the Superbowl this season.
The San Diego Chargers are a distant second. While they have one of the better quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, they allowed the talent to degrade around him over the years. To make matters worse, his weak receiver core got even weaker due to injuries in the preseason. Consequently, the Chargers have to rely on aged veteran Antonio Gates at tight end and often injured Ryan Matthews at running back. The Chargers top out at 8 wins this season. On the other hand, the Kansas City Chiefs should be a team on the rise with the hiring of Andy Reid as head coach and acquisition of Alex Smith at quarterback. They also have some young impact players on defense. Nevertheless, I think a maximum of 8 wins and a move in the right direction is all the Chiefs can hope for this season. Finally, the Oakland Raiders remain a mess. They are inserting athletic Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Unfortunately, his passing is erratic. Darren McFadden will need to have a big comeback season at running back in order for the Raiders to sniff 6 wins. It will be another long year for them.
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Division Winner Pick: Denver Broncos
Breakout Player in the Division: Montee Ball, RB (Denver Broncos)
Dark Horse Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Coach on the Hot Seat: Dennis Allen, Oakland Raiders. Commitment to unachievable excellence.
Stay tuned, tomorrow we’ll break down the NFC. Welcome back Football!!
About Pat Wong
Patrick is a contributor for Rookerville. He is an avid sports fan. Before joining Rookerville, he was part of a defunct New York Yankees message board, NYYankeefans, where he was its top poster and was inducted in its Hall of Fame for his contributions. Patrick is also a passionate fan of movies. He has enjoyed reading movie reviews over the years and is excited about the opportunity to review movies.