NBA Finals Preview
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (1) Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs (58-24)
Offense: 103 PPG, 41.3 RPG, 25.1 APG, 48.1 FG%, 79.1 FT%, 37.6 3P%, 14.6 TOPG
Defense: 96.6 PPG, 42.5 FG%, 35.3 3P%, 14.2 TOPG
After the Spurs struggled with the Golden State Warriors in the second round, I thought that the Memphis Grizzlies would give the Spurs some serious trouble with their physicality and athleticism. I was not surprised the Spurs won but I was shocked that they were able to sweep the Grizzlies. The difference in experience was obvious as the Spurs core has played in many Conference Finals and the Grizzlies were in their first as a franchise. Tony Parker entered the playoffs a little banged up and was inconsistent against the Warriors. However, he brought his A game against the Grizzlies and played like a true superstar. Tim Duncan losing 20-30 pounds in the offseason was significant as he has had his best regular season in years and has looked great in the playoffs. The Spurs role players are also much improved. While they were not ready for the big lights in the last two postseasons, they were a significant factor in getting the Spurs to the Finals this year. They Spurs have gotten this far without Manu Ginobili playing great. I do think that the long layoff after sweeping the Grizzlies will hurt the Spurs. They had a lot of rest in between the first round when they swept the Los Angeles Lakers and really struggled against the Warriors at the beginning of the series before getting in sync and taking control. It took the Warriors throwing away Game 1 for the Spurs to get a split at home in the second round. The Spurs were clicking on all cylinders against the Grizzlies and the long layoff has to throw off that rhythm.
Miami Heat (66-16)
Offense: 102.9 PPG, 38.6 RPG, 23 APG, 49.6 FG%, 75.4 FT%, 39.6% 3P%, 13.3 TOPG
Defense: 95.0 PPG, 44.0 FG%, 35.0% 3 P%, 14.7 TOPG
The Heat were taken to the distance by the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Pacers were able to exploit the Heat’s weaknesses: its front line and rebounding. The Pacers front court was able to punish the Heat with its scoring and outrebounded the Heat for most of the series. Moreover, the Pacers physicality and athleticism really gave every player on the Heat trouble besides Lebron James. Even Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh looked overmatched for most of the series although Wade’s struggles can be attributed to injury. Nevertheless, the Heat had a response for each Pacers win. When it came down to a decisive Game 7, the Heat never left the outcome in doubt after the first quarter. Paul George dominated the Heat for most of the series. With everything on the line, the Heat stuck Lebron on George and completely shut down the budding superstar similar to what he did to Derrick Rose 2 years ago.
Season Series:
The Heat won both games. However, it is difficult to draw any conclusions from the regular season series. In the first game, the Spurs did not even bring Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green to Miami which incurred the wrath of the NBA. In the second game, the Heat benched Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. As such, we never got to see the best players on each team go head to head. Interestingly enough, both games came down to the wire which is indicative that both teams have depth and are well coached. Another aspect I noted in those games was that the Spurs were able to outrebound the Heat in both games which is a positive point for the Spurs as they are able to exploit the Heat’s primary weakness.
Matchups:
PG – Tony Parker vs. Mario Chalmers:
Parker was lit up by Stephen Curry but did a better job on Mike Conley. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are not close to the players Curry and Conley are. They can make some plays but Parker will be able to save some energy on defense and concentrate on offense. Parker looks completely healthy now and is one of the most unstoppable players in the game with his quickness, dribble penetration, and one of the best mid range jumpers game he uses by moving without the ball around screens. I expect Parker to give the Heat a lot of problems and have another big series. Lebron has defended the best player on the other team when needed. However, it is usually against players like Paul George who try to go isolation against Lebron. If Parker cannot dribble penetrate against Lebron, he will be able to move without the ball and have his teammates set screens so he can hit his mid range jumpers. It is a similar game Jason Terry played 2 years ago in the Finals and the reason I believe he was effective against Lebron when a superstar and MVP Derrick Rose was shut down.
SG – Danny Green vs. Dwayne Wade:
If Wade was healthy, this matchup would not even be close and would be a huge plus for the Heat. Regardless, it will be an advantage as Green is a good player but still cannot match Wade. In addition, Wade should have a little easier time in this series. The Pacers gave him problem with their athleticism and physicality. The Spurs do not have those types of defensive players anymore. Wade can average closer to 20 points this series and I think he will need to do it to give Lebron the support he needs.
SF – Kawhi Leonard vs. Lebron James:
Anyone versus Lebron James is a huge mismatch in favor of the Heat. However, the Spurs traded George Hill for Leonard for this very situation. Leonard is young and athletic. He cannot stop Lebron but they will need him to slow Lebron down by keeping in front of him as much as possible and forcing him into the help defense.
PF/ C – Tim Duncan vs. Chris Bosh:
Chris Bosh is an All-Star big man but he was really overmatched by the more physical Roy Hibbert. If Hibbert was able to dominate Bosh in a series, the Heat should be very concerned about Duncan. Duncan is the best power forward to ever play the game, has a lot more weapons in his offensive repertoire than Hibbert, and his lighter body has made him the most effective he has been in years. Bosh will have to brush off the notion that he is soft and match Duncan. However, I feel Duncan will take Bosh to school.
PF – Tiago Splitter vs. Udonis Haslem/ Chris Anderson:
Splitter has really improved his game. His job will be to try to help Duncan beat up the Heat front line. He will also have to make sure Haslem does not have a game where he hits a bunch of jumpers. I expect all these role players on both sides to be good in help defense. This matchup will also be critical in the rebounding differential.
Benches:
The Spurs role players and bench stepped up in the last round. The Heat bench was erratic last series. However, both benches have been critical to their teams’ successes. The Spurs have a lot of 3 point shooters off the bench. 3 point shooting has bothered the Heat a bit this season as the Knicks showed. Of course, the Spurs also have Manu Ginobili. He has not looked great in the postseason and has even hurt the Spurs at some points. However, he is a huge weapon and can make a huge difference in this series.
Besides Chris Anderson, the Heat bench really struggled against the Pacers tough, physical defense. Shane Battier was having such a tough time that he was ultimately benched. While the Spurs are a solid defensive team, they are not that type of defense anymore. As such, the Heat bench should have an easier time and produce more in the Finals. They will need Ray Allen, Shane Battier, and Mike Miller to make 3s to spread the floor for Lebron. Ray Allen showed why the Heat signed him by hitting three big 3 pointers in Game 7. Allen can be a big difference in the Finals.
I believe the games will be close so any advantage from the benches will be huge.
Before I give my prediction, I wanted to get fellow Rooker, Matt Cargile’s opinion.
Cargile:
This match up is odd for the fact that both teams are best in places the other team is lacking. Essentially the Spurs have Duncan with an advantage at center and Parker will undoubtedly have the advantage at point guard. The Heat have the clear advantage at where ever on the court Lebron is. To me these sort of match ups usually end up coming down to who can will their identity on the opposite team more. Which is something that relies heavily on the coaches and the coaches ability to adjust. So for that reason I think the push goes to the Spurs. Spoelstra is a good coach but he’s not even in the same galaxy as Popovich. He had a shot at out coaching Scott Brooks last season, this one not so much. Spurs in 5 games.
My Prediction:
Heat in 6. I will be rooting for the Spurs but the Heat have Lebron James and home court. I also have a feeling it will take the first 2 games for the Spurs to get back into sync. If they spot 2 games to the Heat, it will be a tough task to win 4 of the next 5 games. If the Spurs get a split, I think this series is a toss-up. Nevertheless, I think the Spurs can definitely win the series. I believe Tony Parker and Tim Duncan will have big series. The Spurs will also be able to take advantage of the Heat weakness and outbound them. They also do not have the same problems as the Pacers in turning over the ball. They are probably the most efficient offensive team and will take care of the basketball and play crisp team ball. As such, the Spurs will put up more points than the Pacers. If Wade and Bosh do not do better than they did during the last series, it will go the other way for the Heat quickly.
I expect a great series. It is a historic NBA Finals. If the Spurs win, Tim Duncan can cement his legacy with a 5th title and surpass Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal as the player of their generation. If the Heat wins, Lebron will continue on the path to passing Kobe Bryant and potentially have a real case for passing Michael Jordan. If the Heat lose, Lebron’s legacy will take a huge hit. He will have lost ¾ NBA Finals and twice to the Spurs.
Let the games begin.
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